West-Central Caribbean Tropical Cyclone (Is Invest 99L)

[KUEFC]

I hardly think they put a floater on it JUST because the models see something next week,

How come nobody ever seem to take the pro mets opinions on all this? After all they are pro for a reason

I think most are agreeing w/ the pro's, some suggest possible development next week in the SW Caribbean. Wxman57 says possibly through Cuba/Bahamas and Master's says to early to predict path. Not sure what opinions we are not agreeing with?

The fact that there is a "its definately going to happen" type attitude when wxman57 has said that this is also a time of year when the models come up with storms that dont happen, personally i just think that is a side of things that should be thought of just as highly as the "it will happen".

[Sanibel]

That's what I was worried about. A swift kick in the rear after we thought we beat this season. And the trend is south to north - which it would be anyway in October.

[KUEFC]

Totally different run again my 12z gfs and more on board with what wxman and euro said

[Hurricaneman]

12zGFS agrees with the 0zEuro

[SFLcane]

Sheared mess shunted NE. Another year without a major hit.

[KUEFC]

Sheared mess shunted NE. Another year without a major hit.

To be fair that's going a bit to far the other way, we should be waiting and seeing but not thinking something is definately going to/not going to happen

[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS now starts to organize things in SW Caribbean in the 144 hour timeframe.

[tolakram]

Beginning and end of season, far SW development and GFS also showing development in EPAC. IMO this could very well be an EPAC storm and not Atlantic, we'll have to wait and see.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at the models one thing they all seem to be agreeing on is a high pressure ridge building over the Southern Unites States / Gulf / Florida, and the Bahamas later this weekend into early next week after the big upper-level low pressure system and associated cold front that moves through the Great Lakes this weekend exits the eastern seaboard of the U.S. Meanwhile the tropical wave currently a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to head west and should make it to the SW/Western Caribbean sea by later this weekend which will interact with a developing monsoonal trough.

So one thing I think looks like a high probability at this point is that we will see a large area of disturbed weather develop somewhere in the vicinity of the Western / SW Caribbean / West-Central Caribbean sea area this weekend into early next week that will likely move painfully slow or not move much for several days next week due to high pressure to the north. I am currently giving it a 60% chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone mid to late next week.

[SouthDadeFish]

With all due to respect, to say anyone is "out of the woods" when a system hasn't even formed yet is rather foolish. The fact that the models are so persistant with developing a low in the W Carib, combined with climatology should lead us to keep an eye on this area. Still plenty of time to watch it. Let's not focus on track just yet. I think it would be more useful to look for the genesis mechanisms at this time. But hey, if you like looking at 200+ model runs, then feel free. To each, his/her own.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF starts developing a low in the SW Caribbean as quickly as 48 hours now moving it slowly NW.

12Z ECMWF at 5 days from now:

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z Euro develop a very weak low north of Panama in only 48 hours, then slowly creeps it north through 120 hours, still as a weak low. We're starting to get in the more credible time frame with the genesis of this low.

[Blown Away]

GFS still showing a significant system developing, the 12z moved away from a Wilma type track to a track a bit farther east through the Bahamas. GFS still consistent on showing development and the exact track this far out is usually low reliability. IMO, the GFS is generally hinting a system will move out of the SW Caribbean and move generally N or ENE anywhere from SFL to eastern Caribbean. Worth chatting about IMO!
12z GFS:


06z GFS:

[MiamiensisWx]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The latest ECMWF evolution would mean more of a threat to South Florida due to the earlier development and northwesterly track, meaning a stall or slowing east of the Yucatán would, according to the pattern, be likely due to the presence of several short-wave troughs north of the fluctuating ridge. The short-term movement through day five is fast enough that the system would likely be near the latitude shown in the GFS at least two days before October 31, if not even earlier. Such a scenario would be more Wilma-like and therefore perhaps slightly more plausible simply due to the earlier date. Of course, it may well not happen...I am just describing what the model says and am not making a forecast.

12Z ECMWF loop

00Z ECMWF 192hr

12Z ECMWF 168hr

Note that the position is much farther west on the latest run...and is even west of the positions shown by the 00Z and 12Z GFS runs. The system on the whole...from 48hr to 168hr...appears to be much more developed and compact than in the 00Z run, with a tight vorticity maximum and a stronger gradient (meaning stronger surface winds despite the slightly higher sea-level pressure in the long range).

[KUEFC]

It is one run on a model that has been weakening and strengthening on every run

[gatorcane]

192 hour position on the 12Z ECMWF. Looping shows a slow NW movement and the low gradually consolidating over the NW Caribbean sea:

Loop:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[MiamiensisWx]

It is one run on a model that has been weakening and strengthening on every run

The ECMWF actually did not even show development until two days ago...and then only in the long range on the run at 15 October/00Z. Since then, the model has shown faster development and has slowly increased its intensity projections. So I do not believe the system has been strengthening and weakening on every run. The trend favors development in about five days or less...the track is the big question-mark.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro at 216 hours.

[MiamiensisWx]

The long-wave trough actually (at least probably) fails to pick up the system on the latest ECMWF...even at 240hrs, although the system is accelerating to the east-northeast, the trough axis is moving away from the area and the ridge is rebuilding somewhat. The trough is not as deep as the one that caused Lenny 1999 to curve east-northeast, so I would think that a longer run would show a slowing and a turn back to the north or north-northwest.

ECMWF 216hrs

ECMWF 240hrs

[Frank2]

I wouldn't lose sleep over it - chances are low that anything would head this far north considering how hostile conditions have been since August...

Frank