West-Central Caribbean Tropical Cyclone (Is Invest 99L)

[KUEFC]

I wouldn't lose sleep over it - chances are low that anything would head this far north considering how hostile conditions have been since August...

Frank

That's one thing I am not getting, people are expecting these conditions to improve so much that we get a hurricane? Starting as little as 48 hours?

[gatorcane]

The long-wave trough actually (at least probably) fails to pick up the system on the latest ECMWF...even at 240hrs, although the system is accelerating to the east-northeast, the trough axis is moving away from the area and the ridge is rebuilding somewhat. The trough is not as deep as the one that caused Lenny 1999 to curve east-northeast, so I would think that a longer run would show a slowing and a turn back to the north or north-northwest.

ECMWF 216hrs

ECMWF 240hrs

Yeah it's interesting to note there have been a few GFS runs that have shown it actually turning back North or even NNW South of Cuba in the very-long range as ridging builds back into the Western Atlantic in the wake of that trough. Since it's nearly impossible to predict the upper-level pattern over North America and Western Atlantic out that far, we'll have to just wait and see...

[stephen23]

Wouldn't that be pretty weird. To see a storm start up and follow Wilma's track on the same day exactly 7 years after Wilma. I believe Wilma's depression started on 19th of October correct? In or around the same vacinity. Would be weird concidering Wilma was in the same year as Katrina and we have already had Isaac hit the exact day Katrina hit exactly 7 years later in the same area.

[stephen23]

I'm sorry. Wilma originated on the 15th not 19th of October but in same area on 2005.

[blp]

The long-wave trough actually (at least probably) fails to pick up the system on the latest ECMWF...even at 240hrs, although the system is accelerating to the east-northeast, the trough axis is moving away from the area and the ridge is rebuilding somewhat. The trough is not as deep as the one that caused Lenny 1999 to curve east-northeast, so I would think that a longer run would show a slowing and a turn back to the north or north-northwest.

ECMWF 216hrs

ECMWF 240hrs

I noticed this as well. That is a shift from the previous runs that had the system getting picked up by the trough and now is in line with some of the prior GFS runs that kept the system longer in the W. Caribbean allowing it to strengthen. The best scenario is a quick exit via the first trough because it will not have much time to strengthen.

[cycloneye]

From HPC discussion of Caribbean:

THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ MEANDERS EAST INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A LOW IS TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH 54-60 HRS...WITH CIRCULATION FORECAST
TO DRAW THE ITCZ NORTH INTO THE BASIN LATER IN THE CYCLE.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[KUEFC]

Really not trusting these models if I am honest so much back and forward, something isn't adding up

[cycloneye]

18z GFS starts in 192 hours and here we go with another change in the track,not a surprise.



And when run ends.

[Floridaman]

Who really knows? If the storm did form, it would still be more than two weeks away. Which is a lot of time.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Of course the track and intensity forecasts are going to change in the longer range, but that doesn't make the development of the storm any less likely. A lot of the models have at least a defined area of low pressure in the West Caribbean before 200 hours, and some even have it as a fully-developed storm. As it stands now, I'd give it a 6/10 chance of eventually developing. The only reason that number is not higher is because it is still a while out. However... environmental conditions are expected to be favorable in the Caribbean in general, with below average amounts of dry air and wind shear, and above average sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content. Don't forget the exceptionally intense positive MJO pulse either.

[sunnyday]

Could someone please explain something to me? I am aware that many factors come into play in order for a hurricane/storm to form or not to form, but isn't water temp one of them? If so, isn't the water cooler than it was in August or September, this creating less of a chance for a storm to materialize?
Thank you for answering.

[cycloneye]

Could someone please explain something to me? I am aware that many factors come into play in order for a hurricane/storm to form or not to form, but isn't water temp one of them? If so, isn't the water cooler than it was in August or September, this creating less of a chance for a storm to materialize?
Thank you for answering.

Waters have been this warm in August and September. Maybe a tad less warm in October but it continues very warm.

August



September




October

[jinftl]

Looking at these model runs in context - i haven't been checking in too often here, but this is the 4th day in a row or so that this same conversation has continued which implies there has been some model consistency about something getting going in the NW Caribbean next week. Track and intensity are not going to get you much except panic if one run shows the storm moving close by (which means no one north or west of the FL peninsula has much to worry about)...Cuba, Cayman, Jamaica, etc on the other hand... (maybe more than FL?).

From that I step back and ask the question, has the NW Caribbean seen development this late in the season on a fairly recurring frequency? Yes. Gordon (a November storm), Irene (the Cuba/Florida one in '99), Mitch (epicly deadly monster), Wilma (lowest pressure reading since records kept in Atlantic for any month, $20 billion+ disaster for FL). In other words, some of the strongest and deadliest storms on record have occurred in this region this late or later in the season.

Now systems have had trouble getting going in the more typical regions this season (and yet this dud season is now tied for 7th busiest), so that may be something that would not favor anything getting going next week. Although there is a tendency as time passes to think of the 2005 season as non-stop no shear, ideal upper level conditions every day of the season, the NHC report on Wilma states, "Despite the strong shear in its surroundings (25 kts +), Wilma strengthened over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and its winds reached about 110 kt as it approached Florida."

If a system developed and happened to move in the direction of Florida, could it be strong? That would depend on the upper air environment for sure, but as of last check (9pm reporting conditions), the water temp off Long Key in the FL Keys is 84 deg and the water temp off Miami Beach was 83 deg. we have seen systems intensify up until landfall in late October on the FL peninsula (wilma) - certainly a system that intensifies to the south and west could maintain itself all the way to the peninsula.

In a nutshell, something to keep an eye on, let's see if the models continue to consistently develop a system somewhere in the NW Caribbean. Although i am in south florida, there is no reason to automatically assume this potential system would be a florida storm....by that i mean it could be a Cayman, Cuba, Jamaica, Central America, Hispanola system or turn out to be nothing at all other than a great carrot to dangle and engage us as we approach late october/november

[Caribwxgirl]

Jiinftl you mean sw Caribbean right?

[KUEFC]

00z GFS does VERY little,

[KUEFC]

Euro also very similar to its 00z run yesterday

[KUEFC]

Do they leave some data out of the 06Z model runs?, just cant understand how it can be so different between 00z and 06z?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Do they leave some data out of the 06Z model runs?, just cant understand how it can be so different between 00z and 06z?

I didn't see a big difference in the 00z GFS and the 06z GFS in regards to the potential storm being discussed here.

[KUEFC]

Do they leave some data out of the 06Z model runs?, just cant understand how it can be so different between 00z and 06z?

I didn't see a big difference in the 00z GFS and the 06z GFS in regards to the potential storm being discussed here.

Ok i just cant see much development on the 00z GFS thats all? am i missing something?

Sorry found the problem, for some reason when i was clicking on the 06z run it was showing something different to what it was now that i have cleared my cache,

[Blown Away]

06z still showing development in the WC, but a later in this run.