Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

.UPDATE...RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE RAFAEL CONTINUED TO DOMINATE
AND INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN DUE TO ITS BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE THE PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. AS RAFAEL
CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY... THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
EASTERLY BY THE THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME THE LOCAL
WIND PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT DID HOWEVER ADJUST THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS
AND AS WELL AS LOCAL WINDS AND SEAS...TO INCLUDE NORTHERLY SWELL ACTION
GENERATED BY RAFAEL.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE RAFAEL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WIND PATTERN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION/TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH WINDS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS RAFAEL MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO AVAILABLE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING...HOWEVER
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHALLOW AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN LIMITED
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO...FROM ARECIBO AND
VICINITY EASTWARD TO LUQUILLO AND FAJARDO. MEANWHILE...WARM TO
HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST WILL PREVAIL WITH PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN
PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND FLOW BECOMES FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST...WITH A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION/TROPICAL WAVE REACHING
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...HURRICANE RAFAEL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WIND
PATTERN WITH SW WINDS TODAY BECOMING MORE SRLY TONIGHT AND SERLY ON
WED. TRADES FINALLY ESTABLISH AGAIN WED NIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. SCT TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN AT JSJ AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN AT LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
WED WITH TSTORMS AFFECTING JBQ AND JMZ UNDER A SERLY STEERING FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...AS A RESULT HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 89 78 / 40 0 30 30
STT 88 79 88 79 / 40 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Gusty,I hope that the Butterfly Island returns to normal after the Rafael passage. I merged the thread that was at active storms/invests forum to this one so our Caribbean friends can continue to post about any other reports from the islands that were the most affected by Rafael.

[HurricaneFan]

Is the Tropical Wave the forecasted to reach on Thursday by 40W now?Because it looks way too far away to be it.
If not,are any forecasts mentioning this area?

[cycloneye]

Is the Tropical Wave the forecasted to reach on Thursday by 40W now?Because it looks way too far away to be it.
If not,are any forecasts mentioning this area?

I dont think it will as the wave was dropped and the other one is not at 40W yet as of the 2 PM discussion.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W TO
THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG PRECIPITATION IS IN GENERAL
ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 47W. THIS
PRECIPITATION INCLUDES THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR
THE ITCZ AND THE 37W/38W TROPICAL WAVE.


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 20N50W 16N49W
12N47W HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 16/1200 UTC SURFACE MAP
ANALYSIS BECAUSE IT IS TOO WEAK TO CONTINUE TO TRACK IT.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE NORMAL TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
CHANGE THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
RAFAEL...NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL THROUGH AT LEAST
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS UNCOMMON...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BUT ORIENTED DIFFERENT AS NORMALLY OCCURS. THE WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW...FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO SIMILAR AS YESTERDAY. IN FACT
DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THOSE SECTOR OF THE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS RAFAEL MOVES FARTHER AWAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATION/SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA FROM THE
EAST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WIN INDUCE A GENERAL
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA...BUT SPECIALLY
WESTERN...INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE ARE EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...HURRICANE RAFAEL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WIND
PATTERN WITH SW WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING MORE SRLY ON WEDNESDAY.
TRADES FINALLY ESTABLISH AGAIN WED NIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SCT TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN AT JSJ AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
AT LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS TOMORROW AAFTERNOON. CONDITIONS RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL WED WITH TSTORMS AFFECTING JBQ AND JMZ UNDER A
SERLY STEERING FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 0 30 30 30
STT 79 88 79 89 / 30 30 40 40

[Gustywind]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE NORMAL TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
CHANGE THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
RAFAEL...NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL THROUGH AT LEAST
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS UNCOMMON...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BUT ORIENTED DIFFERENT AS NORMALLY OCCURS. THE WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW...FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO SIMILAR AS YESTERDAY. IN FACT
DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THOSE SECTOR OF THE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS RAFAEL MOVES FARTHER AWAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATION/SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA FROM THE
EAST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WIN INDUCE A GENERAL
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA...BUT SPECIALLY
WESTERN...INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE ARE EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...HURRICANE RAFAEL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WIND
PATTERN WITH SW WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING MORE SRLY ON WEDNESDAY.
TRADES FINALLY ESTABLISH AGAIN WED NIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SCT TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN AT JSJ AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
AT LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS TOMORROW AAFTERNOON. CONDITIONS RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL WED WITH TSTORMS AFFECTING JBQ AND JMZ UNDER A
SERLY STEERING FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 0 30 30 30
STT 79 88 79 89 / 30 30 40 40

LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. What does it mean Cycloneye? There's another potential for a strong twave or a DT on the EC??? Tell me if i'm wrong, let's hope not.

[cycloneye]

LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. What does it mean Cycloneye? There's another potential for a strong twave or a DT on the EC??? Tell me if i'm wrong, let's hope not

That perturbation is not a strong one but will bring scattered showers to the Eastern Caribbean islands. No development is expected with this but the models show development in the Western Caribbean by the time it reaches that area.

[Gustywind]

LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. What does it mean Cycloneye? There's another potential for a strong twave or a DT on the EC??? Tell me if i'm wrong, let's hope not

That perturbation is not a strong one but will bring scattered showers to the Eastern Caribbean islands. No development is expected with this but the models show development in the Western Caribbean by the time it reaches that area.

Thanks to you, hopefully nothing too bad expected

[Gustywind]

Here we are in Guadeloupe, very very very sad news here . 6 victims dead in less than 2 years in the same way: crossing a ford by car during a episode of torrential rains!!! It's a tragedie here, all the citizens are shocked . That's too much my friends!

Disappearance of Edith Lami: a body found at Matouba
franceantilles.fr 16.10.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 190473.php

This morning, around 9: 30 AM a body was found by two civilians committed by the gendarmerie in the relief operations, for their expertise the canoyning. The corpse was at a place called Grand-Marigot, about 1000 meters lower than the chasm of the Saut d'Eau Manore, blocked by rocks at the level of a bank that had so far remained flooded.


Searches launched from Sunday morning to try and rescue Édith Lami have just be thrown on a tragic note. This morning, around 9: 30 AM, a body has indeed found by two civilians engaged by the gendarmerie in relief for their expertise in the canoyning, Fabrice Dufour and Sébastien Mollet. The corpse was at a place called Grand-Marigot, about 1000 meters lower than the chasm of the Saut d'Eau Matouba, blocked by rocks at the level of a bank that had so far remained flooded.
If everything suggests that this body is that of the driver 41 year old and that the car had was swept away by the flooding of the St. Louis River at the crossing of a Ford, more in-depth examinations of identification must now be submitted in order to raise the final doubts. "After three days in the water, you can imagine that the body is heavily damaged," slipped us here briefly and without too much is out in details, a Constable mobilized in the relief operations.
Very quickly informed of this sad discovery, relatives of Édith Lami and including her husband heard the news with astonishment. For them, it has been rough." All their last hopes come to fly even if the chance of finding a living person were seriously shrinking. »
The discovered body then was hoisted and then routed to the Baillif airfield, before being subsequently taken away to the morgue of the CHU art-to-Pitre/Abymes for an autopsy or investigation. "We expect decisions of the Prosecutor's Office," confirmed and relief.

[Gustywind]

Numerous lightnings are making the show here. Thunder is rumbling very nicely!!! Looks like isolated tstorms spreading on Guadeloupe. No showers but frequents lightnings.

[Gustywind]

Briefs poweroutages came the last two minutes... lightnings continues more and more.

[cycloneye]

Briefs poweroutages came the last two minutes... lightnings continues more and more.

Be very careful with those and dont venture outside until it ends. I am sorry about the tragedy. My condolenses to the family.

[Gustywind]

Briefs poweroutages came the last two minutes... lightnings continues more and more.

Be very careful with those and dont venture outside until it ends. I am sorry about the tragedy. My condolenses to the family.

Thanks to you, that's impressive!!! Looks like one fall not so far from the airport of the Raizet given my location. I will shut down my computer, that's too much for now, lightnings lightnings!!!

[Gustywind]

Numerous floodings have occured during the night mainly in the locality of les Abymes. Strong showers spread again on Guadeloupe. No report of possible damages but troubles for most of the citizens of that locality. Some rivers was out of their blancket and some bridges flooded.

Looking at the radar of Meteo-France Guadeloupe, the butterfly island should deal with plenty of rain, pockets of heavy showers are moving towards the area. I will keep you informed if i've more.

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe has maintained the yellow alert for a risk of very strong showers and thunderstorms.

Given the latest weather forecast of Meteo-France " A large spiral band associated with Hurricane Rafael continues tothe Northeast, away from our Islands (its center being located at 1600 km north of la) Guadeloupe trained in its wake of thunderstorms that threaten Guadeloupe. During the last 12 hours we have had received amounts of water at Gourbeyre and Trois-Rivières reaching 100 millimeters, 70/80 mm at Baie-Mahault and between 100 and 120 mm in the Grands-Fonds ( Les Abymes). These rains occurred mainly during thefirst part of night". ( Source Meteo-France Guadeloupe 6AM http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime())

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 AM AST WED OCT 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD POLAR TROF ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB THU.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF ACTIVE WET DAYS APPEAR IN STORE FOR THE
REGION TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THU AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP WITH
PWAT GREATER THAN 2.0 INCHES. CONVECTION TODAY WILL CONCENTRATE
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND DRIFT NORTHWARD ON A WEAK SRLY STEERING
FLOW. AS TRADES ESTABLISH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ON THU THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONCENTRATE ACROSS WRN PR AND BE ENHANCED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 55W PER BLENDED
TPW ANALYSIS. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FRI AS WAVE
MOVES INTO THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN AND DRIER AIR STARTS WORKING IN
FROM THE EAST.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SAT THRU TUE AS MID-UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
ERODES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MOISTURE WILL START COMING BACK AGAIN
NEXT WED AS RIDGE COLLAPSES AS BROAD TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CARIB BASIN.


&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT USVI TAF SITES
AS WELL AS TKPK AND TNCM THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFT
17/15Z... THEREFORE EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
TJBQ/TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY AT 5-6 FT ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS
IN MAINLY NORTH SWELL GENERATED BY RAFAEL. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH AREA REMAINING UNDER A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW
WITH SEAS BECOMING 2-4 FT BY TONIGHT. TSTMS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 40 30 40 0
STT 88 79 89 79 / 30 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE LOCALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE RIDGE THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT A FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND THEN BE AUGMENTED BY
MOISTURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING EASTERLY WAVE FOR
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. EXPECT THIS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
PROBABLY MONDAY ALSO...AN "OVERALL" DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS AND CONTINUED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SHOULD YIELD A
LESS ACTIVE PATTERN...BUT STILL WITH SOME LIMITED AND LOCALIZED
CONVECTION EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE IN AND AROUND TJBQ...TJMZ...
AND THE VICINITY OF TJPS UNTIL 17/22Z. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH VCSH ACROSS TISX...
TIST...TKPK...AND TNCM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18/12Z...WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EASTERLY BUT INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 18/16Z...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 78 89 / 30 40 0 20
STT 79 89 79 88 / 40 40 20 20

[Gustywind]

Gusty,I hope that the Butterfly Island returns to normal after the Rafael passage. I merged the thread that was at active storms/invests forum to this one so our Caribbean friends can continue to post about any other reports from the islands that were the most affected by Rafael.

Thanks, we all hope that in the island but for the moment things are improving slighlty. We keep the faith.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. We will have to watch the SW Caribbean in the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST THU OCT 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE ON TUE AS BROAD POLAR
TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. BROAD SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING PAST FEW
DAYS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS PRETTY DEEP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIB BASIN AND ESPECIALLY AROUND PR AND THE
USVI WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 2.25 INCHES OR CLOSE TO TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SO A
EXPECT A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY BUT CONVECTION MOVING FASTER THAN
YDAY AND MOVING TO THE WSW. SLIGHT DRYING IS EXPECTED FOR FRI.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODES RAPIDLY ON SAT ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
ECMWF AND GFS AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE PWAT VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.25 INCHES
OR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DRYING BUT ITS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED. SO OVERALL...FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR IN STORE FOR SAT THAT SHOULD LAST
THROUGH TUE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD SFC LOW PRES WILL FORM AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP EVENTUALLY BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STARTING TO SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS THE SW ATLC WITH SFC LOW
GETTING BLOCKED BY AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
65W. IT APPEARS A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS LIKELY FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION ESPECIALLY HISPANIOLA STARTING MID NEXT WEEK.
NOTE THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN
EPAC MOISTURE CONNECTION. A BIT TOO FAR OUT FOR MORE DETAILS BUT
SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT THE MJO IS
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WRN HEMISPHERE AND IS FCST TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA AT
TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK EARLY THIS MORNING...SPREADING OVER PR TAF
SITES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LLVL WNDS MAINLY
LIGHT 5-10 KTS FROM THE EAST.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT IN MIXED NORTH SWELLS AND EAST GENERATED
WIND WAVES. T-STORMS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 89 77 / 50 0 20 20
STT 89 79 88 78 / 50 20 20 20