Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

Latest Euro is coming in with the 1050+ high pressure too for the same period in Canada.

[weatherdude1108]

Well, I guess we are in the weather "doldrums." This is the Weather Channel forecast for Austin. I hope the big chill (hopefully wet) is still on track for Halloween time. Hmmm.

10-Day Forecast for Austin, TX (78753)

High / Low (°F) Precip. %

Tonight
Oct 16 Partly Cloudy 65° 20 %

Wed
Oct 17 Partly Cloudy 92°/60° 10 %

Thu
Oct 18 Sunny 80°/55° 0 %

Fri
Oct 19 Sunny 81°/60° 10 %

Sat
Oct 20 Partly Cloudy 85°/69° 0 %

Sun
Oct 21 AM Clouds / PM Sun 85°/68° 0 %

Mon
Oct 22 Partly Cloudy 84°/64° 10 %

Tue
Oct 23 AM Clouds / PM Sun 82°/61° 10 %

Wed
Oct 24 Sunny 81°/60° 0 %

Thu
Oct 25 Sunny 81°/61° 10 %

[vbhoutex]

^This is Winter?^ Heck that isn't even hardly Fall temps.

[weatherdude1108]

I know. Tell me about it.

Ntxw, can you provide us any to this "Indian Summer-like" pattern? Any teleconnections? At least my AC had a break for a little while.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:
I know. Tell me about it.

Ntxw, can you provide us any to this "Indian Summer-like" pattern? Any teleconnections? At least my AC had a break for a little while.

It is a result of zonal flow (raging pacific jet) into NA from west to east. This is why I didn't believe the models when they said big cold front around the 20th. It will breakdown eventually when the EPO goes negative and flow then comes from Canada which is a weekish away. I hope

I still believe firmly a major front will swing through Halloween week. Models are waffling on where the cold will move but it's there, and as the pattern adjusts in the coming week we should see them shift favorable. (They are in zonal mode right now)

[Tireman4]

Man NTWX, I sure hope you are right. Dadgummit....LOL

[Terri]

:uarrow:
I know. Tell me about it.

Ntxw, can you provide us any to this "Indian Summer-like" pattern? Any teleconnections? At least my AC had a break for a little while.

It is a result of zonal flow (raging pacific jet) into NA from west to east. This is why I didn't believe the models when they said big cold front around the 20th. It will breakdown eventually when the EPO goes negative and flow then comes from Canada which is a weekish away. I hope

I still believe firmly a major front will swing through Halloween week. Models are waffling on where the cold will move but it's there, and as the pattern adjusts in the coming week we should see them shift favorable. (They are in zonal mode right now)

Can't-hold-breath-much-longer....

[Ntxw]

AO is tanking

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like it is the lowest on the graph it has been since early/mid July(?). As much as I don't want to admit my ignorance for fear of humiliation, what does that mean?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:
Looks like it is the lowest on the graph it has been since early/mid July(?). As much as I don't want to admit my ignorance for fear of humiliation, what does that mean?

When the AO tanks the Polar Vortex (arctic low) gets displaced into the mid latitudes (where we live). The models say it will head into North America and not Asia this go around so expect lots of cold air masses to build.

[Portastorm]

Note to All

Hey gang, can we move this discussion over to the "Texas Fall" thread since technically we are talking about autumn weather? If you have forecasts or comments about winter ... then this is your thread. Once we hit winter per the calendar then all discussions of the ongoing weather will be here. But most of this stuff in the last few pages should probably be in the Fall thread. Thanks!

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,what do you think about the NOAA 2012-2013 Winter Outlook in terms of Texas is concerned?

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=114001&p=2281043#p2281043

[weatherdude1108]

Here is Bob Rose's take on the updated Winter outlook.
http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[DonWrk]

Not liking the looks of the NOAA Winter Outlook but hey things can still change.

[iorange55]

Not liking the looks of the NOAA Winter Outlook but hey things can still change.

I wouldn't worry about it. They will always go on the safe side with long-range forecasts...because making a long-range forecast is already "risky" enough.

GFS still showing that big cold front late this month!

[weatherdude1108]

Not liking the looks of the NOAA Winter Outlook but hey things can still change.

I wouldn't worry about it. They will always go on the safe side with long-range forecasts...because making a long-range forecast is already "risky" enough.

GFS still showing that big cold front late this month!

Yeah, I think the "long range" should be one week -- or two (at most) in advance.

[Portastorm]

Bump! -- "Autumn weather" means any weather which happens during the calendar season of autumn. Ahem.

Note to All

Hey gang, can we move this discussion over to the "Texas Fall" thread since technically we are talking about autumn weather? If you have forecasts or comments about winter ... then this is your thread. Once we hit winter per the calendar then all discussions of the ongoing weather will be here. But most of this stuff in the last few pages should probably be in the Fall thread. Thanks!

[weatherdude1108]

I wonder if/when it will snow this Winter in central Texas(?).

[iorange55]

The Weather Channel is teaming up with wxman57

http://www.weather.com/news/fall-winter ... k-20121022

[Portastorm]

I wonder if/when it will snow this Winter in central Texas(?).

The Portastorm Weather Center says it will!