WPAC: SON-TINH - Typhoon

[Meow]

Southeast of Yap.

[euro6208]

it is in a low shear environment but models especially euro doesn't develop this until it reaches the south china sea...



pretty nice signature...

[euro6208]

euro has this developing as it enters the south china sea, strengthening while making a beeline towards hainan island/southern china...

[euro6208]

120 Hrs...


144 hrs


216 hrs


alot of people will be affected by Son-Tinh...

[mrbagyo]

here it is..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92W/92W_floater.html

[Meow]

Finally got some possibility to develop.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5N 135.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 95NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
DUE TO CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. A 210436Z AMSU IMAGE
INDICATES FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ONLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU SHOW SUSTAINED EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 1006MB. A SHIP OBSERVATION 200NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION INDICATES A WESTERLY WIND
BURST WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 17 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE 21/00Z PTRO SOUNDING
ALSO DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COLUMN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[Meow]

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
...
SUMMARY.
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 06N 135E WNW SLOWLY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[dexterlabio]

GFS has been showing a TC formation east of PI since last week. Maybe this is it.

[euro6208]

slowly taking shape...i expect our 24th tropical cyclone of the season very soon...

[Hurricane_Luis]

The next name to be used is Son Tinh

[Meow]

ECMWF:


25 Oct, a TS near the central Philippines


29 Oct, a TY near Hanoi, Vietnam

[euro6208]

looks like it might get upgraded to Medium if not then a TCFA.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
135.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY 115NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 212348Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LLCC WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU SHOW SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 05 TO 10 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 1006MB. A NUMBER OF
RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC INDICATE SLP VALUES NEAR
1006MB, INDICATIVE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AREA. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE
NOW LOCATED OVER THE LLCC, PROVIDING GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS WITH THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PREDICTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[dexterlabio]

JMA:


TD
Issued at 07:05 UTC, 22 October 2012

<Analyses at 22/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N9°10'(9.2°)
E133°05'(133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°25'(10.4°)
E130°50'(130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[phwxenthusiast]

does anybody know what happened to MTSAT 2?? JMA is saying it's in operational observation but the IR images have been from MTSAT 1R for about a week now...

anyway, 92W looking good right now, strong mid-level circulation... new convection firing off but i'm not sure if that's over the LLCC... at this rate, there is still a chance this system gets named before hitting the Philippines...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[phwxenthusiast]

i'll answer my own question...

JMA will be conducting maintenance with the ground system thru December of 2012 so MTSAT 1R will be brought back to service for the meantime...

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert



WTPN21 PGTW 221030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 132.5E TO 11.0N 124.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221000Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 131.3E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.8N
132.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 131.3E, APPROXIMATELY 220NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BUT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. A 220900Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES IMPROVED
CURVED BANDING AND THE SSMIS WIND PRODUCT SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
NOW WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A NUMBER OF RECENT SHIP
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC INDICATE SLP VALUES NEAR 1006MB,
INDICATIVE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE
NOW LOCATED OVER THE LLCC, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS WITH THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PREDICTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231030Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 221510

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (NW OF PALAU)

B. 22/1430Z

C. 9.0N

D. 129.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .50 FRAGMENTED WRAP YIELDS A DT
OF 2.0. MET WAS N/A; PT WAS 1.5. DBO PT AS BROKEN CONVECTION IS
WRAPPING VERY BROADLY AROUND THE LLCC AND A HIGH CONFIDENCE
DVORAK IS DIFFICULT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LONG

[RobWESTPACWX]

This very well could be our next TS, Son-Tinh, the links below is to an article and video I wrote up here today. Hope its useful!

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/10/22/son-tinh-developing-and-heading-towards-the-pi-meanwhile-japan-watches-a-strong-storm/

[euro6208]

euro no longer has this developing into a typhoon before it slams vietnam but we will see...