West-Central Caribbean Tropical Cyclone (Is Invest 99L)

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF

Consistent model runs showing a big wet mess moving NE somewhere between SFL/PR.

[Dean4Storms]

We can't leave Florida out as a possibility that is for sure.

[Frank2]

Never say never, but less likely considering the GFS consistently shows the low moving northeast well east of here...

[jlauderdal]

lets get a tropical entity before we start writing off anything below 30 N

[Florida1118]

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[blp]

12z GFS back to showing a dual low very similar to Euro with the big difference being that the Euro develops the Western Low vs the GFS that develops the Eastern low. Still a very complicated evolution.



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[jlauderdal]

12z GFS back to showing a dual low very similar to Euro with the big difference being that the Euro develops the Western Low vs the GFS that develops the Eastern low. Still a very complicated evolution.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

im more impressed with that north atlantic low

[cycloneye]

12z CMC goes over Jamaica as a system gaining more intensity as time goes ahead.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[sunnyday]

So, is Florida out of the woods?

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF starts the development in 96 hours south of Jamaica and at 240 hours,this is where and how strong it looks like.

[blp]

12z ECMWF starts the development in 96 hours south of Jamaica and at 240 hours,this is where and how strong it looks like.

http://oi50.tinypic.com/2r7m13l.jpg[/img]

http://oi46.tinypic.com/2mhaf10.jpg[/img]

Now inline with the GFS. The GFS has been on a roll this year.

[floridasun78]

so nhc looking models vrun gave area central carribbean 10%

[MGC]

I'll be watching this closely.....I'm making my annual Keys trip this week...hopefully if anything comes of this it will stay east of Florida......MGC

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 20%

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IS
INTERACTING WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS
FROM NICARAGUA EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS
BROAD DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[floridasun78]

ok we could be seen what models been forecasting past fews days coming together time to watch area as move into south west carribbean

[cycloneye]

There is no defined low at the moment of this post (9:40 PM EDT) but one thing is for sure and that is the enviroment is very moist in most of Caribbean. Image does not update.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I like how some jump on models like there going to be right. Not even a closed low yet. All the models do is sniff out is a broad low and pop lows everywhere. No model will be right till there is a closed low.

[fci]

So, is Florida out of the woods?

There are no "woods" to be in until there is an identified system so you can't say Florida is out of something that isn't there yet.
Stay tuned and see if anything develops and then what the NHC says about it.

[StarmanHDB]

So, is Florida out of the woods?

There are no "woods" to be in until there is an identified system so you can't say Florida is out of something that isn't there yet.
Stay tuned and see if anything develops and then what the NHC says about it.

Logic is cool!

[blp]

00z and 06z GFS have dual lows again. The 00z strengthens the west one while the 06z strengthens the east one. Something tells me this has headache written all over it.