Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 90L)

[Extratropical94]

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD.

[wxman57]

Looks like a weak tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low that's moving into an area of high shear. 10% is probably high for development by Sunday morning. Chances much closer to zero. Could be that some NHC forecasters think that if they discuss a feature that they must indicate at least some chance of development. Others appear comfortable with discussing a disturbance and saying 0% chance of development.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

1. A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE IN A DAY
OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD.

If it's worth anything, the CMC shows this becoming a potent tropical cyclone before becoming absorbed in a little over 6 days from now.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO up to 20%.

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT
1000 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 90L. Go to Active storms/invests forum to continue the discussions about this area.

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