ATL: SANDY - Models

[cycloneye]

First model plots.

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WHXX01 KWBC 201239
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1239 UTC SAT OCT 20 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20121020 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        121020  1200   121021  0000   121021  1200   121022  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.5N  72.5W   16.1N  74.4W   16.4N  76.4W   16.4N  78.3W
BAMD    15.5N  72.5W   15.8N  74.1W   16.1N  75.4W   16.2N  76.3W
BAMM    15.5N  72.5W   15.8N  74.2W   15.8N  75.7W   15.7N  77.1W
LBAR    15.5N  72.5W   16.6N  74.3W   17.6N  75.6W   18.5N  76.5W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        121022  1200   121023  1200   121024  1200   121025  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.0N  80.6W   14.8N  85.0W   13.6N  88.6W   13.0N  91.3W
BAMD    16.3N  77.2W   16.6N  78.5W   17.5N  79.4W   19.8N  80.5W
BAMM    15.3N  78.4W   14.7N  80.5W   14.0N  81.7W   14.7N  80.9W
LBAR    19.2N  77.3W   19.9N  78.5W   21.2N  79.5W   22.6N  80.1W
SHIP        51KTS          56KTS          53KTS          48KTS
DSHP        51KTS          56KTS          53KTS          48KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.5N LONCUR =  72.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  14.7N LONM12 =  70.5W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  14.0N LONM24 =  69.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =    0NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

They made an update to the 12z model plots.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 201340
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1340 UTC SAT OCT 20 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20121020 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        121020  1200   121021  0000   121021  1200   121022  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.6N  72.8W   15.0N  74.8W   14.9N  76.8W   14.7N  78.7W
BAMD    14.6N  72.8W   14.9N  74.4W   15.1N  75.8W   15.1N  76.8W
BAMM    14.6N  72.8W   14.8N  74.5W   14.7N  76.1W   14.4N  77.4W
LBAR    14.6N  72.8W   15.4N  74.7W   16.2N  76.3W   17.1N  77.6W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          48KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        121022  1200   121023  1200   121024  1200   121025  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.9N  80.7W   12.3N  83.9W   10.9N  86.1W   10.3N  87.2W
BAMD    15.1N  77.6W   15.3N  78.4W   16.7N  78.3W   20.1N  78.3W
BAMM    14.0N  78.6W   13.2N  80.2W   12.9N  80.7W   14.6N  78.8W
LBAR    17.8N  78.8W   18.8N  80.4W   20.4N  81.7W   21.9N  82.5W
SHIP        54KTS          62KTS          59KTS          56KTS
DSHP        54KTS          62KTS          59KTS          56KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.6N LONCUR =  72.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  14.1N LONM12 =  70.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  14.0N LONM24 =  69.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cpdaman]

is this what the CMC, GFS (past runs) and a few euro runs were alluding to further north along the coast,

last nite's CMC had this blasting into Southern New england as a deep (probably hybrid type system)

[cycloneye]

IMO,HWRF may be too bullish as in 66 hours it has a hurricane.



78 hours.



90 hours.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 126 hours:



144 hours:

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

IMO,HWRF may be too bullish as in 66 hours it has a hurricane.

http://oi50.tinypic.com/90vupy.jpg

78 hours.

http://oi48.tinypic.com/szu3qb.jpg

90 hours.

http://oi47.tinypic.com/111mazs.jpg

12z HWRF animation.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

18z Plots:

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310
WHXX01 KWBC 201843
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC SAT OCT 20 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20121020 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        121020  1800   121021  0600   121021  1800   121022  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.6N  73.0W   15.0N  75.0W   15.2N  77.0W   15.0N  78.8W
BAMD    14.6N  73.0W   15.0N  74.7W   15.3N  76.0W   15.6N  77.0W
BAMM    14.6N  73.0W   14.9N  74.7W   15.1N  76.2W   15.1N  77.6W
LBAR    14.6N  73.0W   15.1N  74.7W   15.9N  76.1W   16.7N  77.5W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          43KTS          49KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          43KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        121022  1800   121023  1800   121024  1800   121025  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.6N  80.8W   13.3N  84.1W   11.8N  86.3W   11.2N  87.6W
BAMD    15.8N  77.8W   16.5N  79.0W   18.2N  79.7W   20.9N  80.3W
BAMM    15.1N  79.0W   14.8N  81.2W   14.4N  82.3W   16.4N  78.0W
LBAR    17.2N  78.5W   18.7N  80.1W   20.5N  80.9W   22.4N  80.6W
SHIP        57KTS          65KTS          64KTS          61KTS
DSHP        57KTS          65KTS          64KTS          61KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.6N LONCUR =  73.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  14.3N LONM12 =  71.6W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  14.0N LONM24 =  69.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  120NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[cycloneye]

12z UKMET

[Blown Away]

12z Dynamic Models

[Floridaman]

What causes that sharp turn that some of the models have?

[brunota2003]

A cold front that picks a stronger 99L up.

[chaser1]

Well a little oddly, looks as if both the 12Z runs of the GFS and Euro are both pretty "together" with regard to present mid term forecast motion. Its interesting to note that both of these Global models seem a bit faster than some of the other models. This quicker development and then subsequenet pull to the NE is what seems to be what I can see as the biggest distinction between them and some of the other models. In fact, given how 99L appears on satellite late today, I too would bet that its not going to just sit around and takes its sweet time as most late season Caribbean systems often do.

[chaser1]

Well now that i've had a bit more time to look at the downstream upper air, I kinda noticed something a bit odd. While looking at the 18Z GFS 500mb charts, if you look closely you will notice that between about 102hr's and 108 hr's, that the mid level center appears to be easily 8 degrees farther west than the low level center. So, here I am thinking that perhaps the system is experiencing some NE'rly shear thus "shunting" the upper/mid levels back a bit while the low to mid level gets pulled into the trough. So then as I continue to looking at the 500mb flow, it seems quite appearant that a fairly strong ridge is building over time and slowly sliding east over the S.E. Conus. So to me, now it would appear that any vertically stacked sytem, would possibly drift north and if anything bend back to the WNW or NW under the building ridge. I suppose if 99L were to develope quite quickly, than this might best allow a developing LLC to slip NNE into whatever weakness that may still be there in 48-72 hr"s. Than for good measure, I'm looking at the 200mb flow and the upper air seems difluent enough, but at about 48 hr's from now, there are 20-30 knot westerlies tearing across the N. Caribbean at about 18N with no appearant anticyclone to be seen, with exception to a small one south of E. Dominican Republic. Contrary to the maps, a very prominent anticyclone seems to be presently established over a developing 99L, already further west than that point. Looking at the most recent Rapid Update (RUC) model which only goes out to 18 hours, it seemed fairly clear that the upper level energy caused by a deep low over the Great Lakes, suddenly seems to lift up and out.

It looks to me that the entire steering flow seems to be shifting, at least by 60 hours from now. So my guess is that the dynamic models, along with the UK and CMC are anticipating 99L to develop a bit slower but then trek north, only to possibly get caught under a building ridge, thus bending a system back "ala" Hurricane King. Must have been a similar setup for that to happen then. Here is yet one more though on eventual motion. Perhaps at some point 3-4 days from now - and assumsing that 99L is developing under a decent upper high, than perhaps at that point it simply makes a hard "left turn" when nearing Cuba and continues west or even WSW?

My guess is that it continues to develop while moving slowly NW tonight & tomorrow and if nearly a depression by Monday morning somewhere near or just east of Jamaica, than the whole mess will continue to move NE under strong shear, but eventualy be named given the forward motion negating the shear slightly. If 99L can remain south and continue to progress west to about 80W for 48 to 60 hours, than things look to get even more interesting. -

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF animation.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[MiamiensisWx]

Interestingly, even the normally unreliable Canadian (CMC) model is in line with the HWRF and GFDL. All three show a slow WSW movement through day 4, followed by a turn to the NE on day 5 and then a slight curve to the NNW thereafter. So these models, along with the climatological CLP5, the BAMD, and the NOGAPS models, suggest more of a FL threat than do the operational GFS and ECMWF models.

[cycloneye]

Latest tracks.

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 201859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...



THU-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) SYNOPTIC SITUATION BECOMES MORE
INTERESTING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
LOUISIANA PRESSES AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW STILL DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN BRINGING
AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHEASTWARD
CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS. AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST THE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC UNITED STATES AND
THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER CUBA AND THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES POSSIBLE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PRECIP WOULD BE ALONG THE COAST FROM
SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH. HIGHS MID 80S. LOWS UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND
LOWER 70S COAST MAINLY CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH.



SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AVIATION...CRISTALDI

[Hurricaneman]

The 0ZGFS has shifted about 350 miles farther west into the central Bahamas at 126 while the 18ZGFS at 132 had it east of the southeastern Bahamas, I certainly hope this is not a trend, because if it is Florida might have to keep a real close eye on this

[lester]

The 0ZGFS has shifted about 350 miles farther west into the central Bahamas at 126 while the 18ZGFS at 132 had it east of the southeastern Bahamas, I certainly hope this is not a trend, because if it is Florida might have to keep a real close eye on this

A trough recurves it out to sea eventually, looks like a close call for Florida though if it verifies