2012 EPAC season

[Yellow Evan]

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

[somethingfunny]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 PM PDT FRI OCT 5 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. UPDATED...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

Anyone here think this will form?

[cycloneye]

Anyone here think this will form?

Go to active Storms/Invests forum as is invest 96E.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113849&p=2278850#p2278850

[Kingarabian]

Both the GFS and Euro are showing Paul in the next week or so.

[AnnularCane]

We seem to have 97E, but there is no thread.

[Kingarabian]

We seem to have 97E, but there is no thread.

Made one.

[Kingarabian]

We should have Rosa sometime next week:


And maybe some late Central Pacific noise:

[Kingarabian]

Possibly a chance for a Cat.5 storm?

[somethingfunny]

Do you think that trough crossing Texas might manage to pick up "Rosa" and bring some nice sweet rain?

Eighteen years ago today, another storm named Rosa caused quite a flooding disaster in Texas.

[Kingarabian]

Do you think that trough crossing Texas might manage to pick up "Rosa" and bring some nice sweet rain?

Eighteen years ago today, another storm named Rosa caused quite a flooding disaster in Texas.

Yes I do. But we don't know how tight the re curve will be. This could be another problem for the Baja.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Possibly a chance for a Cat.5 storm?

Don't get my hopes up.

[Yellow Evan]

Do you think that trough crossing Texas might manage to pick up "Rosa" and bring some nice sweet rain?

Eighteen years ago today, another storm named Rosa caused quite a flooding disaster in Texas.

Yes I do. But we don't know how tight the re curve will be. This could be another problem for the Baja.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks more like a Baja storm, but Texas could get some rain. I'd compare it to Waldo 85 or Newton 86 instead. Also, this could set the record for latest Baja hurricane landfall.

[cycloneye]

Not so fast says NHC on discussion at 22:05 UTC.

A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 89W
AND 93W HAS A LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS
THIS AREA PROGRESSES WESTWARD...THIS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT COMMENCING EARLY SAT. [b]THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE
MEXICO-GUATEMALA BORDER BY SAT MORNING AND INDUCING N TO NE
WINDS UP TO 25 KT. THIS IS MAINTAINED WITHIN THE HIGH SEAS
THOUGH IF THE OTHER MODELS ARE CORRECT IN LESS DEVELOPMENT...THE
WINDS MAY END UP BELOW OUR 25 KT CRITERION. BECAUSE OF CONTINUED
MODERATE HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRES IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH...THIS WEAK TEHUANTEPEC EVENT
MAY CONTINUE FOR ABOUT A WEEK. IN GENERAL...THE GAP WINDS WILL
BE MOST PROMINENT IN LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING AND WEAKEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING MINIMUM.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE IS ROBUSTLY SPUN UP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY MON WITHIN THE 12Z GFS S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
BUT REMAINS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER WITHIN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE REMAINING GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS AN E TO W
EXTENDED MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GRIDDED
FORECAST WILL FAVOR THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF NO DEVELOPMENT AND
DOWNPLAY...AT THIS TIME...ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...IT
IS QUITE SHOCKING TO SEE THE GFS DEPICTING A HURRICANE BY WED
AND THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NOTHING.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah it was interesting how the GFS is the only model showing development. The Euro has zip-nada. I guess its either break or make for this model this season. Though it has been aggressively consistent.

[cycloneye]

EPAC comes to life.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Kingarabian]

Hmm. Looks like the GFS may be right after all.

[somethingfunny]

The Euro never picked up on this system, and the latest GFS run dropped it.

[Kingarabian]

The Euro never picked up on this system, and the latest GFS run dropped it.

Has not dropped it, just weaker. It looks like it splits the energy and instead of having a full on Hurricane we have 2 low TS's.

[cycloneye]

Well,GFS was wrong this time as nothing has developed in that basin. By this time,if GFS came to fructition,a powerful hurricane would be out there.