ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Surface Analysis.

[CrazyC83]

Starting an anticyclonic loop now?

[Florida1118]

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMAICA. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[somethingfunny]

I don't know how to even begin to comprehend what this thing has the potential to do as it travels up the coast.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Convection has finally fired atop Invest 99L's low-level center. If it persists and expands, we may have a tropical depression this afternoon.

[Blown Away]

Joe Bastardi tweets, interesting he takes a position against the mighty GFS.

[Florida1118]

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER
JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

[Blown Away]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day6nav_color.html
Closest point to SFL then NE until day 7.

[sunnyday]

Just read today's Crown weather discussion about "possible Sandy," and there was no mention of South Florida at all. Does anyone here agree or disagree that So. Fla. probably won't be in the path (assuming the storm forms)? Thank you for your feedback.

[wxman57]

Just read today's Crown weather discussion about "possible Sandy," and there was no mention of South Florida at all. Does anyone here agree or disagree that So. Fla. probably won't be in the path (assuming the storm forms)? Thank you for your feedback.

It still looks like this system will pass safely east of south Florida.

[boca]

It depends on which model you want to believe.The GFS has future Sandy going thru the Central Bahamas which puts us on the dry side maybe a bit more breezy thats about it.The EURO takes it north then left hooks it towards S Florida which would mean rain and wind the in takes it up the East coast From North Carlolina to Maine.

[Blown Away]

Just read today's Crown weather discussion about "possible Sandy," and there was no mention of South Florida at all. Does anyone here agree or disagree that So. Fla. probably won't be in the path (assuming the storm forms)? Thank you for your feedback.

IMO, the guidance wants to bring future Sandy through the central Bahamas in 5 days, only talking about @150 miles East of SFL. As of today SFL seems to be ok based only on the models. JMHO!!

[boca]

Just read today's Crown weather discussion about "possible Sandy," and there was no mention of South Florida at all. Does anyone here agree or disagree that So. Fla. probably won't be in the path (assuming the storm forms)? Thank you for your feedback.

IMO, the guidance wants to bring future Sandy through the central Bahamas in 5 days, only talking about @150 miles East of SFL. As of today SFL seems to be ok based only on the models. JMHO!!

I agree South Florida will be fine and just miss us to the east.

[x-y-no]

Just read today's Crown weather discussion about "possible Sandy," and there was no mention of South Florida at all. Does anyone here agree or disagree that So. Fla. probably won't be in the path (assuming the storm forms)? Thank you for your feedback.

We always have to watch anything in the neighborhood, but I'd call the probability of us being affected very low.

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 220738
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
338 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...DETERIORATING BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE WEEK...



TUE-WED...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA WILL
SUPPORT BREEZY EAST WINDS. GFS SHOWS A WEAK CONVERGENT BAND
SETTING UP OVER THE ATLC LATE TONIGHT...SETTLING SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE COAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST...FOCUSING ON THE TREASURE COAST TUE NIGHT SINCE
THE GULF STREAM IS CLOSER TO THE COAST THERE.

THE BREEZY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODIFIED...GENERALLY LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.

THU-SUN...THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
TRACK IS CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF.
WHILE THE GFS TAKES THE LOW OFF TO THE N/NE AND AWAY FROM CENT
FL...THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH NUDGES IT W/NW TOWARD THE EC FL COAST TEMPORARILY
BEFORE A POTENT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST KICKS THE
SYSTEM EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF STRONG N/NE WINDS AND LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION
AND VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF
MODEL VERIFIES.

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY

[storm4u]

The only storm this year that I actually have interest in for up here.. Well see how the models trend from here on out

[Hurricane Alexis]

The models take it about 150 miles off the SFL coast. It won't take much for 99l to get 50 miles off the coast and bring signinficant impacts.

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[SouthDadeFish]

Interesting OSCAT pass at 4Z today:



Center was around 13N or so at the time and a little elongated. Since then, I would only imagined it has tightened up.

In my opinion this is already a TD, but the NHC likes to wait for recon to confirm...

Again, just my opinion.

[x-y-no]

Interesting ...

I would have guessed the center is about half a degree further north than that ... but 78W definitely looks right.

Agree that with recon going in this early afternoon we'll likely get any upgrade at 5pm, not at 11am.

[SouthDadeFish]

Here is TAFB's 06Z 72 hour Surface Forecast: