ATL: TONY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#21 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 8:57 am

T numbers are up to 2.0. I know all of the focus is on 99L, but why is this one not a TC yet?

Florida1118 · #22 Postby **Florida1118** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:00 am

Hurricanehink wrote:T numbers are up to 2.0. I know all of the focus is on 99L, but why is this one not a TC yet?

Thats what I've been wondering.

#23 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:07 am

Yeah this should be well on its way to TD19 soon too.

#24 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:11 am

I could see this being a post-season upgrade. It shouldn't bother anyone and isn't destined for a long lifespan.

#25 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:12 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:I could see this being a post-season upgrade. It shouldn't bother anyone and isn't destined for a long lifespan.

That is possible too, since they will want to put a lot of attention into TD18/Sandy, given its likely unusual characteristics.

Hurricane_Luis · #26 Postby **Hurricane_Luis** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:18 am

I think TD 19 is on the way

Hurricane_Luis · #27 Postby **Hurricane_Luis** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:05 am

20121022 1145 20.5 51.8 T2.0/2.0 90L 90L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/90L.html

Isnt that TD Status

#28 Postby **Extratropical94** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:49 pm

Up to 70%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

#29 Postby **Caribwxgirl** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:55 pm

Yep this one is shaping up too.

#30 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:57 pm

Could be TD19 at 5 at this rate?

#31 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Could be TD19 at 5 at this rate?

I would say quite likely.

#32 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:41 pm

22/1745 UTC 22.0N 51.7W T2.0/2.0 90L -- Atlantic

#33 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:18 pm

Looks like a TD to me. Quite possibly a TS.

#34 Postby **fci** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:27 pm

Will this beat 99L to the name "Sandy"?

#35 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:27 pm

ozonepete wrote:Looks like a TD to me. Quite possibly a TS.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... rgb0-6.jpg

There's no way this is still just an invest. I think we might get a renumber soon.

#36 Postby **HenkL** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:30 pm

best track at 18Z:

AL, 90, 2012102218, , BEST, 0, 218N, 517W, 30, 1006, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

#37 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:31 pm

I agree with both of you. A renumber has to be coming imminently and it wouldn't surprise me now if this beat 99L to "Sandy." Really looks like a TS. Wonder what next Dvorak numbers will be?

#38 Postby **Extratropical94** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:33 pm

Latest ASCAT is showing the eastern half of the system.

Hurricaneman · #39 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:34 pm

This is why people shouldn't assign names before they are named, something else like this may pop up

#40 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:36 pm

Renumbered!

invest_RENUMBER_al902012_al192012.ren

ATL: TONY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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