ATL: SANDY - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#181 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:38 am

nogaps has shifted west about 100 miles or so. that a decent change. though it is the nogaps... although its does do well with winter/synoptic features and this will be transitioning so maybe its worth paying attention to.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#182 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:08 pm

little change in the 12z cmc maybe just slightly more west initially.. on the west side of jamaica then very close to the gfs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

whats interesting is you see that trough wash out almost and the ridging trying to build north of it but can quite and it gets pushed out to sea. if it were a little slower moving north that ridge would very likely build back to its north.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#183 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:16 pm

The GFS ensemble means hit new england and is WAY west of the op at the 7 day range
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#184 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:16 pm

Image
GFS 06z vs 12z, almost identical off SFL coast. GFS seems to be speeding up Sandy with each run.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#185 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:19 pm

^Those look like mirror images..LOL..Dont see the speed up at least not thru 72 hrs.
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#186 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:25 pm

Weatherguy173 wrote:why is it that some of the ensemble models for sandy hit the east coast? how reliable do you think those ensemble models are?


They are the members that see the deep trough in the central/eastern U.S. tilting negatively and maybe even closing off over the Ohio valley. This would cause the 500mb (mid-level steering) flow over the eastern U.S. to set up from southeast to northwest which would steer Sandy back toward the mid-Atlantic coast or New England. (There is also a complex interaction with a large low in the north Atlantic expected.) As Aric said before and the HPC discussion from this morning said, more and more of the ensemble members are starting to show this trend with each run. If more than half of them do in later runs, the "regular", operational GFS itself will start to show this and then it will come into line with the ggem, euro, cmc, nogaps, etc. The HPC is currently leaning towards that solution and Dr. Masters is also fairly concerned about that outcome. We'll still have to wait another day or two to see how it shakes out.
(You can see the HPC discussion a little further back in this thread - cycloneye posted it earlier. It's an interesting read.)
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re:

#187 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:29 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:^Those look like mirror images..LOL..Dont see the speed up at least not thru 72 hrs.


I meant to say compared to yesterdays run.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145292
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#188 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:31 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Weatherguy173 wrote:why is it that some of the ensemble models for sandy hit the east coast? how reliable do you think those ensemble models are?


They are the members that see the deep trough in the central/eastern U.S. tilting negatively and maybe even closing off over the Ohio valley. This would cause the 500mb (mid-level steering) flow over the eastern U.S. to set up from southeast to northwest which would steer Sandy back toward the mid-Atlantic coast or New England. (There is also a complex interaction with a large low in the north Atlantic expected.) As Aric said before and the HPC discussion from this morning said, more and more of the ensemble members are starting to show this trend with each run. If more than half of them do in later runs, the "regular", operational GFS itself will start to show this and then it will come into line with the ggem, euro, cmc, nogaps, etc. The HPC is currently leaning towards that solution and Dr. Masters is also fairly concerned about that outcome. We'll still have to wait another day or two to see how it shakes out.
(You can see the HPC discussion a little further back in this thread - cycloneye posted it earlier. It's an interesting read.)


Not in this thread but at the Sandy main discussion thread. :)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#189 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:50 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#190 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:53 pm



Can't see that image..
0 likes   

adam0983

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#191 Postby adam0983 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:57 pm

I am waiting to see what the Euro will show.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#192 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:01 pm

gfdl has a little bend to the nw the heads nne like euro and bends back towards mid atlantic.

toggle last 2 images.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 2&title=18
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#193 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:03 pm

EURO looks a little bit west of the 00z run so far through 48 hours:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#194 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:06 pm

SFLcane wrote:


Can't see that image..



Sorry, having trouble with it myself. It was coming off an Australian met site.

Basically showing a major cane ripping thru NYC.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#195 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:07 pm

GCANE wrote:
SFLcane wrote:


Can't see that image..



Sorry, having trouble with it myself. It was coming off an Australian met site.

Basically showing a major cane ripping thru NYC.


No model is forecasting major hurricane-force winds. The pressure-wind relationships are going to be far from what they are normally due to the huge size. Even the ECMWF 928mb run yesterday only had upper-level winds of about 95 kt, and that was not going to make it to the surface in the cooler air.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#196 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:15 pm

72hours over top andros Island. thats pretty darn close to florida.


Image
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

adam0983

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#197 Postby adam0983 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:16 pm

from that position what kind of conditions can Florida expect?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145292
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#198 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:17 pm

I think NHC will do a blend between GFS and ECMWF for the 5 PM track.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#199 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:18 pm

I don't see huffman's site updated so I can compare from the 00Z but that would mean a west shift by the ECMWF.....
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#200 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:18 pm

96hrs begins to pull away but slowly ! and deepens. looks tropical still... euro has 60 to 75 mph winds just offshore florida.

Image
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests