Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Now forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches Jamaica.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...SANDY MOVING LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 78.6W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SANDY.

[Macrocane]

AT LEAST 4 PEOPLE KILLED BY FLOODS IN EL SALVADOR

Bad news from El Salvador, the heavy rains that fell on weekend caused flash floods and some landslides in the country, especially in the eastern part. This is a least of the damages:
-In the city of San Miguel a family was in a taxi when a flash flood in the road swept the taxi away killing 3 children.
-In the village of San Jorge a man died when a landslide buried his home.
-In the municipality of Ciudad Arce A boy was swept away in a flash flood but fortunately he survived and only suffered some injuries.
-9 families left their homes in Soyapango because of the threat of landslides.
-San Miguel Grande river overflowed blocking the nearby roads.

Heavy rains are still expected in the next couple of days as the monsoon trough remains active and near our coasts as an indirect effect of the low south of Tehuantepec and tropical storm Sandy.

[Caribwxgirl]

So sorry about those folks in El Salvador.

I see Sandy is now to be hurricane before hitting us this gets worse by the minute.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane watch issued for Jamaica.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SANDY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 78.6W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
JAMAICA...AND HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

[cycloneye]

Plenty of rain expected for a good chunck of Caribbean during the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST TUE OCT 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL STORM SANDY...SOUTH OF
JAMAICA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN...WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TODAY AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

FROM WEDNESDAY TO AT LEAST SATURDAY THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY...JUST SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA THIS MORNING. ACCORDINGLY TO THE LATEST
BULLETIN FROM THE NHC...SANDY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH EASTERN
CUBA AS A HURRICANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SANDY WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...
ESPECIALLY JAMAICA...CUBA AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THE OUTER
BROAD CIRCULATION OF SANDY WILL DISRUPT THE NORMAL TRADE WIND
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
ENCOMPASS OUR FA...INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INDUCE SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOCALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS UNTIL AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER FREQUENCY
IS DECREASING. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AFT 23/16Z WHEN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND LCL MVFR/IFT CONDS. LLVL WINDS E-ESE LESS
THAN 15 KT.

&&

MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. TROPICAL
STORM SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 78 / 20 30 40 30
STT 89 78 89 79 / 20 40 40 30

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye, let's continue to monitor carefully Sandy! More east, looks like a twave continues to progress westward with more convection this morning, something to keep an eye too...

[Caribwxgirl]

How do I upload pictures? I took some pics of what it looks like outside but can't seem to get them on.

[Caribwxgirl]

http://imageshack.us/a/img707/853/imageqgay.jpg

Ok here's one image trying to get the others up.

[Caribwxgirl]

http://imageshack.us/a/img811/5457/imagewqwc.jpg

Here's another I'm having issues with accessing the codes using the iPad.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Warning for Jamaica. Now is really serious my friend.


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SANDY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 77.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
JAMAICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
ON WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE
WHEN IT APPROACHES JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS
993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CUBA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

http://imageshack.us/a/img811/5457/imagewqwc.jpg

Here's another I'm having issues with accessing the codes using the iPad.

The pics show up well.

[Caribwxgirl]

Rains getting heavier

Not sure if you can see it
http://imageshack.us/a/img515/2001/imagekqsc.jpg

http://imageshack.us/a/img195/7129/imagekvk.jpg

There are hills/mountains in the distance but they can no longer be seen.

[Caribwxgirl]

From the Gleaner Newspaper


The Ministry of Education has put all schools on alert as the country prepares for Tropical Storm Sandy which could strengthen into a hurricane before it hits Jamaica.

Education Minister Ronald Thwaites says a bulletin has been issued to schools for administrators to take the necessary precaution.

Thwaites says the ministry is in close contact with the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODEPM) as it seeks to ensure the safety of students, staff and school plants.

He says the education ministry will continue to assess the situation and will await word from ODEPM about whether schools should be closed.


UPDATE

The Ministry of Education has ordered that all schools should be closed tomorrow as Tropical Storm Sandy approaches Jamaica.

The Education Ministry has also instructed all schools to activate their emergency plans immediately.

The ministry says schools designated as disaster relief centres, should put in place safe-keeping measures for all important documents and educational materials.

[cycloneye]

MET SERVICE OF JAMAICA

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/

October 23 2012 at 11 a.m..

Bulletin #8

HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WARNING is now in effect for Jamaica as Tropical Storm Sandy again strengthens and continues on a track towards the island.

This means that the following dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Jamaica in 36 hours or less:

• Dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force;
• Average winds 64 knots (118 km/h) or higher;


At 10:00 a.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Sandy was located near Latitude 13.8 degrees North, Longitude 77.8 degrees West, or about 480 kilometres (300 miles) south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica or 340 kilometres (210 miles) south of the Pedro Cays.

Tropical Storm Sandy is moving towards the north-northeast near 7 km/h (5 mph) and this general motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed today and tomorrow. On this forecast track, the centre of Sandy will begin to move across Jamaica, from south to north, on Wednesday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 km/h (50 mph), with higher gusts, and additional strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours. Sandy is forecast to become a hurricane while approaching Jamaica tomorrow. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 kilometres (90 miles), primarily east of the centre.

Over the next 24-36 hours, rainfall is expected to increase significantly over Jamaica to produce flash flooding and landslides across the island at least through Thursday. Winds are forecast to reach tropical storm strength by early Wednesday morning, increasing to hurricane force later in the day. These could generate 1- to 2-metre (3- to 7-foot) storm surges, particularly along the southeastern coastline of the island.

All small craft operators including fishers from the cays and banks should by now have completed all the necessary safety precautions and are advised to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal.

The next Bulletin on Tropical Storm Sandy will be issued at 2:00 p.m. today.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SANDY CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 77.6W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

[cycloneye]

October 23, 2012 at 2 p.m.

Bulletin # 9

HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT …TROPICAL STORM SANDY CONTINUES TOWARDS JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WARNING continues for Jamaica as Tropical Storm Sandy maintains a path toward the island.

This means that the following dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Jamaica in 36 hours or less:

• Dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force;
• Average winds 64 knots (118 km/h) or higher;
.
At 1:00 p.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Sandy was located near Latitude 14.1 degrees North, Longitude 77.6 degrees West, or about 440 kilometres (275 miles) south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica or 310 kilometres (190 miles) south of the Pedro Cays.

Sandy is moving towards the north-northeast near 7 km/h (5 mph) and this general motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed today and tomorrow. On this forecast track, the centre of Sandy will begin to move across Jamaica, from south to north, on Wednesday afternoon before heading towards eastern Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 km/h (50 mph), with higher gusts, and additional strengthening is expected during the next 24-48 hours. Sandy is forecast to become a hurricane while approaching Jamaica tomorrow. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 kilometres (90 miles), primarily east of the centre.

Over the next 24-36 hours, rainfall is expected to increase significantly over Jamaica to produce flash floods and landslides across the island, at least through Thursday. Winds are forecast to reach tropical storm strength by early Wednesday morning, increasing to hurricane force later in the day. These could generate 1- to 2-metre (3- to 7-foot) storm surges, particularly along the southeastern coastline of the island.

All small craft operators including fishers from the cays and banks should by now have completed all the necessary safety precautions and are advised to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal.

The next Bulletin on Tropical Storm Sandy will be issued at 5:00 p.m. today.

egt

[cycloneye]

It looks like less rain than what was expected for PR from the indirect effects from Sandy.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST TUE OCT 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ERN CARIB
OVR THE NEXT TWO TO FOUR DAYS. RIDGE WILL THEN FLATTEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS ERN NOAM. TROPICAL
CYCLONE SANDY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE SW ATLC ON THU WITH VERY
LITTLE IMPACTS OVER OUR AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DENSE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SANDY WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS
AND REMAIN OVR THE AREA THRU AT LEAST FRI BEFORE IT BEGINS TO THIN
OUT ON SAT. THIS WILL GREATLY INHIBIT THE SEA BREEZE CYCLE AND
THUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. AS SANDY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOCUSING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
MAINLY OVR THE MONA CHANNEL AND THE WATERS OFF OF NW PR. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIG RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OR FLOODING AS STORM MOTION WILL BE
QUITE FAST IN THE ORDER OF 25-KNOTS. IF ANYTHING IT WOULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER DUE TO HIGH HELICITIES AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
FAST STORM MOTION. LIMITIING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO
BE EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK AND BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED TO STAY OVR THE MONA CHANNEL. TWO THINGS THAT MOST PEOPLE
WILL NOTICE IS THAT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AND HOT TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG SRLY FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...VCSH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND TJMZ THROUGH
23/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT.
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...SCA SEEMS LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIG
POSSIBLY MAJOR SWELL EVENT AS SANDY TRANSITIONS INTO A VERY
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT GETS SUCKED UP INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE STORM WILL HAVE AN EXTREMELY LARGE RADIUS OF GALE
FORCE WINDS WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW ATLC
AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY. GLOBAL WW3 ENSEMBLE INDICATES
VERY HIGH PROBS OF SEAS EXCEEDING 3-METERS AT 11 SECS WITH A 20%
CHANCE OF SEAS EXCEEDING 4-METERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 84 79 84 / 0 20 20 30
STT 81 81 81 82 / 10 10 30 30

[Macrocane]

Very heavy rains for Jamaica are expected:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

AT 15UTC TROPICAL STORM SANDY CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 77.8W...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 HPA.
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 04KT.

DISCUSSION FROM OCT 23/00 UTC: THE NHC IS FORECASTING TROPICAL
STORM SANDY TO START LIFTING NORTH AS A DIGGING TROUGH AMPLIFIES
TO THE WEST. THIS WILL DRIVE THE STORM NORTH TOWARDS JAMAICA
THROUGH 30-36 HRS. THEY CONTINUE TO FORECAST THIS SYSTEM TO
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. IT IS TO THEN CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA THROUGH THE
EVENING/EARLY ON THURSDAY. THE CYCLONE IS TO ENTER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BUT AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM.

CONVECTION ACROSS JAMAICA IS TO INTENSIFY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THROUGH THE DAY IT IS TO BUILD NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
150-200MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 350-500MM/DAY. CONVECTION OVER THE
BAHAMAS WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 75-125MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 250-300MM/DAY. FURTHERMORE...AS A LONG FETCH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION...LEADING TO A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE AREA. ACROSS THIS AREA WE NOW EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 75-125MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 250-300MM/DAY
THROUGH 60 HRS. AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY...THIS WILL DECREASE TO
25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS.

OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMAIN...AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS INITIALIZED ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWEST USA. THE RIDGE
CENTERS ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER COLIMA/NAYARIT IN MEXICO. THROUGH
24-36 HRS THE HIGH WILL RELOCATE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WHERE IT IS TO HOLD THROUGH 54-60 HRS. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AS IT HOLDS...IS TO FAVOR A SUBSIDENCE CAP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO...WHERE IT IS TO
CONTINUE INHIBITING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS RIDGE...OVER THE EASTERN GULF-WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...THE RIDGE IS TO DIVERT SHORT WAVE VORTICES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF. THESE ARE TO THEN FEED INTO A DIGGING TROUGH.
THROUGH 36-48 HRS THE TROUGH IS TO REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE AS IT
IS TO EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO HONDURAS/EL
SALVADOR. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN IS TO THEN
HOLD THROUGH 72-96 HRS. THE DIGGING/AMPLIFYING TROUGH CONTINUES TO
FOCUS ITS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL CUBA AND THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH STRONG INFLOW OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY
EXPECTED THROUGH 18-24 HRS. THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION...WITH
ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL-WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY.
THROUGH 36-48 HRS MAXIMA WILL INCREASE TO 20-30MM/DAY. A MORE
ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN HONDURAS TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. IN THIS AREA...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLIES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM SANDY TO THE EAST AND THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ARE TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS.
AFTERWARDS...EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY.

THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ AS THE LATTER MEANDERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM/DAY THROUGH 48-60 HRS...AND
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY AFTERWARDS. THE MODELS SHOW
MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION CLUSTERING ON THE PACIFIC COASTAL PLAINS
INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FURTHERMORE...THE STORM...AS IT
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...IS MODULATING THE ITCZ NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ABC
ISLANDS...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. THIS IS TO THEN WANE THROUGH 48-72 HRS.
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. BUT AS THE STORM PULLS
AWAY...THIS IS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM BY 72-84 HRS. ACROSS NORTHWEST VENEZUELA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. THROUGH
48-72 HRS THIS WILL DECREASE TO 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS TO PRESS AGAINST CELL OF
THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE IS VENTING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS SANDY. AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
BUILD NORTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/WELL
ORGANIZED RIDGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND 72-96 HRS. AT MID
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY BUILD WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC/ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE BUILDING RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLES...INHIBITING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THIS PATTERN WILL
HOLD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THEN WEAKEN ON DAY 03. AT THAT
TIME...A MOIST SURGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS SANDY WILL FAVOR AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH
ALONG 50W TO EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA/ORINOCO DELTA REGION. THE
TROUGH PATTERN PERSISTS NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH 48-54 HRS...THEN
STARTS TO RETROGRESS ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA TO SURINAME BY 66/72
HRS. ALTHOUGH TROUGH DEEPENS...THE GUIANAS ARE TO REMAIN ON THE
CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...INHIBITING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.

PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC...FORECAST
FROM 00UTC.

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
36W 39W 42W 45W 47W 49W 52W TW

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W IS TO ENTER FRENCH GUIANA LATER IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE. INITIALLY...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ITCZ. BUT AS IT ENTERS FRENCH GUIANA LATER
ON DAY 03/EARLY ON DAY 04 IT COULD SUSTAIN WIDELY ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)

[msbee]

reports from Jamaica

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/jamaica.shtml

[Gustywind]

Such a great news for Guadeloupe . Let's hope that this project gives birth shortly as predicted by these researchers, so we're waiting for . Anyway, that could be interresting data for the others carib islands especially when a feature approaches the EC area.

Cyclonic swells under high surveillance

M.A. France-Antilles Guadeloupe 22.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 191206.php


RESEARCHERS. Narcisse Zahibo and Yan Krien are working on cyclone swell modelling.
Within two years, simulations will allow to know the effects of cyclonic swells to our shores to the nearest metre.

"Swept away by the swell that drags us, leads us... '. "Here are ten days, a few surfers, unwillingly, have hijacked this famous song of Piaf. The wind had nothing of Dante, but wave height has been measured up to 7 meters, and the onslaught of cyclonic swells caused both damage the road network in some ports. Not as much as when the same passage of Dean or Omar, but when... But until two years later, nobody will not longer be surprise. Because the University, offshore - research in geosciences and energies laboratory - Board on a modeling system.

A KNOWN EVIL PHENOMENON
Swell, it is a phenomenon still poorly known, which we apprehend not yet very well the dynamics. And at present time, few countries attempt modeling of this phenomenon, particularly because this operation requires strong scientific expertise. But this expertise, the UAG. Within the wide, through a European funding Interreg and a grant from the Region of Guadeloupe, two researchers, Narcisse drills of Yan Krien Zahibo, have embarked on this challenge: a modeling of the trajectory of the swell, surges of tide (read below) and floods which can be linked. It boils in the expression 'cyclonic marine flooding hazard. Work is proceeding well: "the first results should be available early 2013." But as we need to model a multitude of scenarios, modelling should not be operational before beginning 2014. »

ACCURATE TO THE NEAREST METRE
The results of what type? After all, weather France is already able to announce the maximum expected wave height. But this new model goes much further, including elements that were missing so far are now available: bathymetry of Guadeloupe - depths and underwater landforms map - have been completed and are now accurate to the coast. These reliefs, these depths obviously have an impact on the behavior of the cyclonic waves, and this impact can be taken into account by modelling. «The model will allow to give results of impact, wave penetration distance and map risk, explain our two researchers.» We can be accurate to the nearest metre. »

Interest, for planners, is clear, not in the determination of unsuitable areas or in the implementation of protective equipment.

INTERESTING FOR PLANNERS AND FISHERMEN

It is about autant provided to fishermen, who know precisely whether or not, they need to exit their boats, or even recover at sea what they can of their gear. It is, finally, for coastal populations who will be able to take precautions, even evacuate in advance if the risk is precise. In 1928 (read above), such a model would have been welcome...

-Of the premium to storm tide

Called surcote uplift of the surface of the ocean, usually due to the effect of a meteorological depression. This one comes to raise the sea level from the level that provided for the calculation of the only astronomical tide.

Indeed, the level of the ocean tide at a time and in a given place differs more or less the level that can there be calculated - with great precision - by astronomical data. This shift comes mainly from variations in the weight of the atmosphere, as supports it the surface of the ocean. Such variations are highlighted by the distribution of the values of atmospheric pressure at sea level: here where pops up a depression, the lighter atmosphere overlooking the sea surface makes raise, resulting in a premium, that is a positive difference of level compared to the astronomical tide.

AMPLIFIED BY WIND ACTION

The action of the winds frequently combines with that of atmospheric pressure to amplify the value and effects of the surges. This is the risk of flooding of coastal regions which is feared, and this risk only realized that too often when strong disturbances raised a storm surge which is superimposed on the tidal wave and propagates the premium to the Mainland: talking about in this case of storm tide.

DEVASTATING TIDAL

Storm surges have sometimes disastrous - some of them are historically the most deadly and the most devastating weather-related events that ever occurred-, the forecast values of the surges plays an essential role in the follow-up of crisis situations such as the evolution of a tropical cyclone. Various meteorological centres have prepared digital models forecasting short-term surges on the coastal areas; This is particularly the case of weather France for what is tropical ocean areas or are located overseas.

Source: Weather France

- And tsunamis, in all of this?
Narcisse Zahibo is known in Guadeloupe for his work on the tsunami risk and for its participation in the international working group which aims to make tsunami warning system operational, for the Caribbean. "The last meeting was held in Curaçao in April, he explains.» Everyone fell agreed that the regional warning centre is based in Puerto Rico. But still, expected about it, the green light from the US Congress. At the same time, the proliferation of seismographs and tide gauges - detection devices continues.

In the French West Indies, this step is completed. Finally, a warning and evacuation, life-size, simulation will take place in November in Dominican Republic. We will send observers for a return of experience. »


-Wave, swell and wind sea

There are the swell of the sea wind. The sea of wind is created by wind prevailing at the place and at the time of the observation. For its part, the swell was created by a wind which is not this wind, because it was created elsewhere and spread.

The waves depends on the wind speed, the time during which he blows and the distance over which it blows.

In the absence of wind, the waves continue to spread freely: it is called the swell. On the edge of the sides, these waves are affected by the presence of the substance and, in particular, the roughness of the bottom. Finally, the waves breaking on the beach or shoals, reefs and others, to depths of 1 to 20 m, losing all their energy which is partly communicated to currents.


-1928
[b]Storm surges can be more deadly that combined with a destructive weather phenomenon. The most striking example, in Guadeloupe, remains the infamous cyclone of 1928. According the calculations made a posteriori, the storm tide caused a 4 metre sea-level elevation![/b]