ATL: SANDY - Models

[CrazyC83]

from that position what kind of conditions can Florida expect?

Low to mid-tropical storm conditions, particularly near the coast.

[jlauderdal]

EURO looks a little bit west of the 00z run so far through 48 hours:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif

plenty of ridging on that frame

[Aric Dunn]

120 hrs expanding and likely transitioning... wind field is very large and heading about due north. seems more west of 00z run

[GCANE]

12Z NCEP Ensemble Members

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/2608 ... to/1/large

12 out of 20 impact New England

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/2608 ... 00/photo/1

[Aric Dunn]

ummm.. 144 hrs... heading towards NE with 100 to 110 kts.................

[storm4u]

another euro run that destroys my area

[deltadog03]

EURO shows it getting hooked back into the upper mid-atl/southern NE. I agree with the solution/ OR* something close to it. NHC track *from 11am* should be updated. I really don't think we will see a hard hook right after the Bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

168hr into NYC with bunch of hurricane force winds. very large system..

[gatorcane]

Wow if that Euro verified, what a significant and historical event that would be.....ironically happening at a time the NE United States is NOT climatologically favored for a hit. Let's hope it is wrong.

[cycloneye]

In terms of New England, there is a thread at the winter forum where model runs that show impacts on New England can be posted there as by that point it would be ex Sandy.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=113752&hilit=&p=2282183#p2282183

[Aric Dunn]

In terms of New England, there is a thread at the winter forum where model runs that show impacts on New England can be posted there as by that point it would be ex Sandy.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=113752&hilit=&p=2282183#p2282183

to be honest it is quite possible it is still a sub-tropical system at that time.

[GCANE]

Long-Island Express

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/2608 ... 04/photo/1

[ROCK]

JB must be all over this.....anyone seen his Twitter messages?

[HurrMark]

This definitely is not trending well for the Northeast/Mid Atlantic...we still have five days, but it is getting a bit more ominous. And people may be caught offguard since we are at the end of OCT and especially for the Northeast, hurricane season to most is over.

Here is a dilemma...if this does become extratropical and does become a threat, will the NHC stop writing advisories. My concern is that people would not take this seriously if it doesn't have a "name". I guess this might make the Weather Channel smile a bit, since they have their solution...my guess is that they would use "Q" if the ECMWF is right.

[GCANE]

JB must be all over this.....anyone seen his Twitter messages?

All storm needs to do is conserve heat and the water is 5c above normal very far north.. as heights fall. 950 certainly attainable, 930???

Remember perfect storm dropped pressures with lesser storm than this ( Grace) to 950 mb over colder water

Moral dilemma if this occurs. would I come back here for snow, or stay in RI for hit. Competing Saturday in Boston.

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

[ROCK]

the thing is with that EURO solution is the windfield is so huge it would drive all kinds of water into the harbor....not so much worried about cat 1 winds in NYC but its the water that could inudate the city...shutting it down...

[deltadog03]

Euro still shows a warm core at 850mb just before it gets ready to make landfall. I think the GFS showed us today, that it certainly "trended" closer to (at least) the possibility of the EURO solution.

[ROCK]

JB must be all over this.....anyone seen his Twitter messages?

All storm needs to do is conserve heat and the water is 5c above normal very far north.. as heights fall. 950 certainly attainable, 930???

Remember perfect storm dropped pressures with lesser storm than this ( Grace) to 950 mb over colder water

Moral dilemma if this occurs. would I come back here for snow, or stay in RI for hit. Competing Saturday in Boston.

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

ah, he must have a BBuilding show in Boston....if I was a betting man, if the EURO still holds this solution he will be there for the hit....

[SunnyThoughts]

Quite a few runs in a row showing impact in NY/NE, especially this far out in time. You guys stay safe up there.

[adam0983]

This would be horrible for New York if that happened. I can't see this happening too cold up there this time of year and water tempertures are too cold