ATL: SANDY - Models

[GCANE]

Since yesterday's GFS run, the 06Z shows the trough more negatively tilted with some good embedded shortwaves diving into TN and VA.

Eventually it becomes cutoff.

IMHO, this is a likely scenario given the fact there is a large cold air surge behind it with significant height falls.

I think there is a good chance that Sandy will phase with the front.


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[GCANE]

Joe B:

Even Brazilian model is joining ECMWF with Sandy hit on northeast coast. ECMWF as bad as it gets if correct.

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/statu ... 80/photo/1

[MiamiensisWx]

06Z NOGAPS--still an outlier--is still showing a very close pass (<50 n mi) by South FL in just over two days:

NOGAPS 06Z 54hr

[OuterBanker]

OMG, sometimes you just need to go back to bed and get over the nightmare. The 00z 24 oct run of the euro has hurricane force winds from the NC coast to New England (in excess of 90 mph here with a west weighted storm). Not to mention the blizzard in western Pa and WV as a result. I'm quite sure it's way overblown, but it is a bit disconcerting.

[SootyTern]

Silly question, perhaps, but what does 'Phase with the front' exactly mean?

(sorry for posting this in model thread)

[GCANE]

Silly question, perhaps, but what does 'Phase with the front' exactly mean?

(sorry for posting this in model thread)

Vorticity of front and cyclone combine - a process in extra-tropical cyclone development.

Analogous to when two waves combine to reinforce each other into a bigger wave.

[Aric Dunn]

euro showing well into hurricane force winds (even with a reduction from 850mb) along the central and south florida coast.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z GFDL just 100% nasty for NE...Takes route thru bahamas N to Jax Lat takes a little right turn then just rams the NE Delmarva area while phasing..

[jlauderdal]

euro showing well into hurricane force winds (even with a reduction from 850mb) along the central and south florida coast.

euro has been very consistent for days now...be interesting to see how the system does with cuba and then once it comes off and starts to feel the trough...tremendous dynamics will be coming together, system should enlarge big time for a rather large wind field

[GCANE]

Reference on Extra-Trop Phasing

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/~ritchie/RE ... y_2007.pdf

[jhpigott]

Based upon some of these models (Euro and NOGAPs) I would be surprised if the TS Watches on the SE FL Coast are not upgraded to warnings with even an outside shot at Hurricane Watches going up.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Based upon some of these models (Euro and NOGAPs) I would be surprised if the TS Watches on the SE FL Coast are not upgraded to warnings with even an outside shot at Hurricane Watches going up.

On a realistic note..This just in...Nogaps just took the worst model award from Nam in the battle for the worst...It really needs to be dicounted at all costs.. JMHO ofcourse.

[jlauderdal]

Based upon some of these models (Euro and NOGAPs) I would be surprised if the TS Watches on the SE FL Coast are not upgraded to warnings with even an outside shot at Hurricane Watches going up.

On a realistic note..This just in...Nogaps just took the worst model award from Nam in the battle for the worst...It really needs to be dicounted at all costs.. JMHO ofcourse.

nogaps had the right idea for several days, whats your issue with it in relation to Sandy

[jhpigott]

Based upon some of these models (Euro and NOGAPs) I would be surprised if the TS Watches on the SE FL Coast are not upgraded to warnings with even an outside shot at Hurricane Watches going up.

On a realistic note..This just in...Nogaps just took the worst model award from Nam in the battle for the worst...It really needs to be dicounted at all costs.. JMHO ofcourse.

Granted, but the Euro does show some pretty nasty/windy weather for the SE FL and Central FL coasts.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Based upon some of these models (Euro and NOGAPs) I would be surprised if the TS Watches on the SE FL Coast are not upgraded to warnings with even an outside shot at Hurricane Watches going up.

On a realistic note..This just in...Nogaps just took the worst model award from Nam in the battle for the worst...It really needs to be dicounted at all costs.. JMHO ofcourse.

nogaps had the right idea for several days, whats your issue with it in relation to Sandy

Its persistance of bringing the "eyewall" over the SFL Coast in the 42-54 hr time frame? PERSISTANTLY....Its not like its 288 hrs out now...EVERY model we have at our disposal should be golden in this time frame in terms of track at the least..

[DESTRUCTION5]

Based upon some of these models (Euro and NOGAPs) I would be surprised if the TS Watches on the SE FL Coast are not upgraded to warnings with even an outside shot at Hurricane Watches going up.

On a realistic note..This just in...Nogaps just took the worst model award from Nam in the battle for the worst...It really needs to be dicounted at all costs.. JMHO ofcourse.

Granted, but the Euro does show some pretty nasty/windy weather for the SE FL and Central FL coasts.

See that and think it will be some decent winds near the coast but the actual center scraping the coast seem implausable at this point.. Looks like its down to timing of how much the wind field expands upon exiting Cuba..

[Aric Dunn]

Nogaps has been right there with the euro this whole time and since it will be transitioning the nogaps does a lot better with larger synoptic / cold core than tropics. its possible the the over TN/OHio cuts off sooner and allows the bend back to the nnw to happen sooner.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/ ... el%20plots

Latest..Sorry image would not post there..

[gatorcane]

NOGAPS as folks pointed out continues to show a near SE Florida direct hit:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

NOGAPS as folks pointed out continues to show a near SE Florida direct hit:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

its not a near this time... landfall