ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[artist]

Then TS warnings should be issued later if ur correct Aric.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... torm+Watch

Only warnings issued at present time are for coastal waters not mainland.

watches have been issued for the coastal areas, in other words, those along the beaches.
Please note what it says here -
AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
COASTAL PALM BEACH...COASTAL BROWARD AND COASTAL MIAMI DADE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...INLAND PALM BEACH...METRO PALM
BEACH...INLAND BROWARD...METRO BROWARD...INLAND MIAMI DADE...
METRO MIAMI DADE AND FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM
RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A CONCERN.
...
SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AS TROPICAL STORM SANDY MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY,
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE WIND FIELD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SANDY EXPANDS, SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.

EVEN IF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DO NOT REACH THE
COAST, OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, BEACH EROSION AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RAIN BANDS FROM THE OUTER EDGE OF SANDY COULD ALSO AFFECT SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING A POSSIBILITY IF BANDS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST.

[Aric Dunn]

Then TS warnings should be issued later if ur correct Aric.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... torm+Watch

Only warnings issued at present time are for coastal waters not mainland.

thats because its beyond 36 hours out. warnings should go up later today.

[sandyb]

Hi all, I'm at the NC/SC line, on the coast - they are showing a definite curve before it gets too near here - does anyone know if the timing of the curve seem pretty definite, or if there much chance of Sandy getting a good bit closer before she curves east?

I am wondering the same thing about this what if it does not make the turn everyone is focuing on Florida which I understand it is closer to them at this time but we need information further up the east coast in NC we really stick out there could be bad if Sandy does not make the turn

[SFLcane]

Then TS warnings should be issued later if ur correct Aric.

Quite likely some of the FL east coast will get them.

Do you think so? The 12Z operational GFS (aqua-blue line) has shifted a good 25 n mi or so east of the 00Z run through 36 hours, now taking the center over central Exuma rather than just to the west. While the ECMWF and NOGAPS remain the same, in the short term other models have shifted a bit to the east, including the TVCE. Since the center of Sandy has been moving NNE rather than N on recent reconnaissance fixes, would you not think that the trends make a difference between ~40 kt and ~30 kt (weak TS winds and TD winds) on the east coast of SE FL? To my eyes, the chance of TS winds here appears to be decreasing somewhat.

Thanks!

Thought I was seeing things with some models slightly shifting eastward. These eastward shifts today might keep sustain winds TS over the water and not over mainland southern florida. Some 30-40 gusts not bad we see that down here every week all summer long.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like Sandy is gradually starting to expand more to the west. I just not seeing that NNE movement any longer from yesterday....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

yeah, have to remember a lot of time llc motion is influenced by convective bursts and its always a god idea to focus more on the overall envelope of the system during its organization stages till it reaches a strong ts or hurricane. once the core is established you rarely get relocations of the center and the last couple days we have seen the Flight level center off set from the llc but finally today things are stacked. the overall motion still is about nne to n the models are good on that.

[HurrMark]

My guess is an eye is popping out...if that is the true center, it is already east of the 18Z forecast point...almost at 76.5. At this point, it would have to take a true NNW heading from here on out for it to get to touch Florida. Not saying it won't happen, but my personal opinion is that it is unlikely...there is still a bit of an eastward component, in fact.

[bucman1]

Good morning,

Any chance for center reformation of Sandy once she crosses Cuba?If so how may that effect the track?

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon just found 86 knot flight level winds in the SE quadrant. I expect upgrade to hurricane status shortly.

[ozonepete]

Then TS warnings should be issued later if ur correct Aric.

Quite likely some of the FL east coast will get them.

Do you think so? The 12Z operational GFS (aqua-blue line) has shifted a good 25 n mi or so east of the 00Z run through 36 hours, now taking the center over central Exuma rather than just to the west. While the ECMWF and NOGAPS remain the same, in the short term other models have shifted a bit to the east, including the TVCE. Since the center of Sandy has been moving NNE rather than N on recent reconnaissance fixes, would you not think that the trends make a difference between ~40 kt and ~30 kt (weak TS winds and TD winds) on the east coast of SE FL? To my eyes, the chance of TS winds here appears to be decreasing somewhat.

Thanks!

Sure. You are not taking into account a considerable expansion of the wind field to the west as Sandy interacts with the longwave trough - this is a very important component of the forecast that will be difficult to nail down for a while yet. Also you are counting on a NNE motion when the models, and the NHC, expect a northerly track at times until it reaches the Bahamas. Thus the models will keep shifting back and forth for the next few runs so you can't pinpoint an eye landfall right over Exhuma with certainty. Could be 50 miles east or west of there.

In cases like this the NHC usually puts up warnings just for safety's sake.

[gatorcane]

If you extrapolate the current track and the expansion of the westward side of the system, SE Florida would have some rain/wind imacts. I can only imagine that the system will grow more on the west side with little shear now there to stop it.

[SouthDadeFish]

Boom:



Big burst in the northern eyewall. Looking very good.

[CrazyC83]

86 kt at FL = about 77 kt at the surface, but the SFMR comes nowhere near that. Highest was 65 kt in rain so far.

As the storm grows and interacts with the trough, it is likely the FL-SFMR ratio will be quite extreme, like 60% or so.

[lester]

pressure has dropped to 972 mbs per recon

[HurrMark]

Wow...it's dropping like a rock. And from what I can see, the center will probably bypass most of Jamaica giving it some extra time to intensify before Cuba.

[MiamiensisWx]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/241458.shtml

WE HAVE A HURRICANE, FOLK!

[HurrMark]

Now a Hurricane officially...

[Aric Dunn]

Happy little eye coming through...

[SouthDadeFish]

Not looking good for Jamaica... Prayers go out for those in the path of the storm. She is really blowing up right before landfall. Thankfully land interaction will slow her down soon, or else who knows what would have happened.

[tolakram]

Latest


Live java Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Flash Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

Unfortunately not all image loops have been restored from the sat outage last week.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Hurricane Sandy



...SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA...

Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph