ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Dont forget that land interation can affect track quite a bit especially if the circ becomes caught up in the mountains of cuba the center would rotate to the left especially it weak steering currents.

[HurrMark]

Not looking good for Jamaica... Prayers go out for those in the path of the storm. She is really blowing up right before landfall. Thankfully land interaction will slow her down soon, or else who knows what would have happened.

Actually, it may bypass Jamaica completely or just hit the tip of it. And it's a very narrow island, so given its current speed, it will only be over it for a few hours max...not much time for weakening despite the tall mountains.

[artist]

Not looking good for Jamaica... Prayers go out for those in the path of the storm. She is really blowing up right before landfall. Thankfully land interaction will slow her down soon, or else who knows what would have happened.

Actually, it may bypass Jamaica completely or just hit the tip of it. And it's a very narrow island, so given its current speed, it will only be over it for a few hours max...not much time for weakening despite the tall mountains.

as much as anything the rains there are so dangerous, causing mud slides. My thoughts are with them there.

[CrazyC83]

At this rate, it could be Cat 2 before landfall?

[MiamiensisWx]

The latest reconnaissance data suggest the center may have shifted (jogged) back to the NNW a bit...so the overall movement may still be N...potentially very bad news for Kingston, which may take a direct impact from hurricane-force winds. Given the intensity trends, I think a landfall intensity of 80 kt is likely...and that there is a 50/50 shot that Sandy may reach Category-2 intensity before hitting. This would make Sandy the strongest hurricane to directly hit Jamaica since Gilbert 1988, I believe. So this will be bad...given the very intense eyewall convection transferring winds directly to the surface and explosive latent-heat condensation and orographic lifting leading to very heavy rainfall / flooding. Stay safe, Jamaicans!!!

[OuterBanker]

Anyone notice the rather large shift to the left in the 11am advisory?

Yesterday a big right just after the Bahamas headed below Bermuda.

Now north of the Bahamas before right turn between Bermuda and NC.

Huge difference.

[MiamiensisWx]

The latest reconnaissance data suggest the center may have shifted (jogged) back to the NNW a bit...so the overall movement may still be N...potentially very bad news for Kingston, which may take a direct impact from hurricane-force winds. Given the intensity trends, I think a landfall intensity of 80 kt is likely...and that there is a 50/50 shot that Sandy may reach Category-2 intensity before hitting. This would make Sandy the strongest hurricane to directly hit Jamaica since Gilbert 1988, I believe. So this will be bad...given the very intense eyewall convection transferring winds directly to the surface and explosive latent-heat condensation and orographic lifting leading to very heavy rainfall / flooding. Stay safe, Jamaicans!!!

Look how small the radius of hurricane winds is...Kingston is just 55 n mi from the center and is reporting 15-kt winds and 997 mb:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html

Edit: Winds have suddenly shifted to the east at 22 kt.

[Aric Dunn]

The latest reconnaissance data suggest the center may have shifted (jogged) back to the NNW a bit...so the overall movement may still be N...potentially very bad news for Kingston, which may take a direct impact from hurricane-force winds. Given the intensity trends, I think a landfall intensity of 80 kt is likely...and that there is a 50/50 shot that Sandy may reach Category-2 intensity before hitting. This would make Sandy the strongest hurricane to directly hit Jamaica since Gilbert 1988, I believe. So this will be bad...given the very intense eyewall convection transferring winds directly to the surface and explosive latent-heat condensation and orographic lifting leading to very heavy rainfall / flooding. Stay safe, Jamaicans!!!

Like I mentioned earlier the previous motion has been to organizational rotational motions the overall motion of the system has been basically north. averaging out motion is near due north.

[x-y-no]

Anyone notice the rather large shift to the left in the 11am advisory?

Yesterday a big right just after the Bahamas headed below Bermuda.

Now north of the Bahamas before right turn between Bermuda and NC.

Huge difference.

The discussion addresses that. It's because of the trend towards the ECMWF solution.

[OuterBanker]

No mention in local forecast. 10:39am posting by NWS

CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OFF
THE NC COASTLINE...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL LOCALES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRETCH OF GOOD BOATING WILL CONT AS HIGH PRES CONTS NEAR OR JUST
OFF THE CST. CURRENT LIGHT WNW WINDS WL BECOME MORE S/SW MOST WTRS
TODAY WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS...POSS A BIT HIGHER NRN TIER
LATE. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TC
SANDY MOVES N TWRD SRN BAHAMAS EXPECT LIGHT ENE WINDS TO DEVELOP
SRN WTRS LATE. SEAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THRU THE
PERIOD...COULD SEE SOME 3 FOOTER OUTER SRN WTRS TOWARD DAYBREAK
THU.


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...BIG CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE HIGH
IMPACT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE NC WATERS THIS COMING WEEKEND.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS
IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CUBA. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND PARALLEL THE NC COAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING AT
LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STORM FORCE...AS
PROLONGED NORTHERLY FETCH WINDS AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE STORM MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE
COAST. LONG PERIOD SWELL BUILDS TO 6 FEET FRIDAY MORNING AS FCST
BY WAVEWATCH...AND PEAKS AT 20 FEET OR MORE ON SUNDAY. WORST CASE
SCENARIO IS THAT FORECASTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS
CONSISTENTLY GUIDING THE STORM SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST VERSUS
THE GFS...AND WOULD BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE WATERS.
THOSE WITH MARINE INTERESTS ARE URGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THIS DEVELOPING POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SITUATION

Nuff said.

[cycloneye]

This is Dr Jeff Masters discussion of the long terms scenarios of what may Sandy do in the Mid Atlantic states and in New England.

Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic and New England

On Friday, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast and trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic. The Central Atlantic trough may be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the official NHC forecast, and the 06Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z Canadian, and 06Z HWRF models (00Z is 8 pm EDT, and 06Z is 2 am EDT.) However, an alternative solution, shown by the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFDL, and 06Z NOGAPS models, is for Sandy to get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph. Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor'easter, becoming the so-called "Perfect Storm" that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.


The Wednesday morning 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFS model was done 20 times at lower resolution with slightly varying initial conditions of temperature, pressure, and moisture to generate an ensemble of forecast tracks for Sandy.Tthese forecasts show substantial uncertainty in Sandy's path after Friday, with a minority of the forecasts taking Sandy to the northeast, out to sea, and the majority now predicting a landfall in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic states of the U.S.

When might Sandy arrive in the mid-Atlantic and New England?

The models vary significantly in their predictions of when Sandy might arrive along the U.S. coast. The 06Z NOGAPS model predicts Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Saturday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model predicts that Sandy's rains won't affect North Carolina until Sunday, with the storm making landfall in New Jersey on Monday night. The GFDL model is in-between these extremes, taking Sandy ashore in Delaware on Monday morning. The trough of low pressure that Sandy will be interacting with just moved ashore over the Western U.S. this morning, and got sampled by the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of land-based balloon-borne radiosondes for the first time. One of the reasons the models have been in such poor agreement on the long-term fate of Sandy is that the strength of this trough has not been very well known, since it has been over the ocean where we have limited data. Now that the trough is over land, it will be better sampled, and the next set of 12Z model runs, due out this afternoon between 2 pm - 4pm EDT, will hopefully begin to converge on a common solution. I'll have an update this afternoon once the 12Z model runs are in.

[Aric Dunn]

Sand may take a good jog to the nnw or nw over the next several hours and it intensifies and then interacts with the mountains of jamiaca.

[bucman1]

Aric, are there any past history where interaction with the mountains caused center reformation of a couple
of hundred miles or so ? (any past storm examples).

[Ptarmigan]

At this rate, it could be Cat 2 before landfall?

That is what I am thinking too. The satellite image suggest rapid intensification to me.

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[Evil Jeremy]

Recon just found pressure of 971mb...

[cycloneye]

Live stream from Jamaica.

http://www.televisionjamaica.com/LiveTV.aspx

[Aric Dunn]

model thread... gfs coming inline with euro.. showing a slow drfit to the NW or near 48 to 60 hours with anywhere from 50 to 70 kts on the central florida coast. with all the convection on the left side like the euro nogaps and NAM

[brunota2003]

Dropsonde measured 68 knot surface winds, with a pressure of 986...good drop, confirms at least 70 knots for intensity.

[Evil Jeremy]

Dropsonde measured 68 knot surface winds, with a pressure of 986...good drop, confirms at least 70 knots for intensity.

Pressure is down to 971mb:

154000 1714N 07648W 6966 02917 9713 +160 +060 263010 011 021 003 00

[CrazyC83]

Should there be a Hurricane Watch for parts of SE Florida based on those models?