ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Should there be a Hurricane Watch for parts of SE Florida based on those models?

its looking a possibility.

[wxman57]

NHC track does now indicate the start of a bend to the left toward southern New England. It's in between the various models (Euro/Canadian/GFS) and non-committal as of yet. No reason to commit to a particular model just yet. I sort of like last night's GFS solution but wouldn't rule out a southern New England hit. TS winds to graze the beaches of FL and the Carolinas. Inland winds 20-30 mph across FL.

[Weatherguy173]

the cone of uncertainty should be MUCH bigger, the computer models have changed so much in the past few forecasts.

[brunota2003]

Looks like our first landfall, barring any crazy wobbles, will be smack between Hayes and Kingston, Jamaica.

[gatorcane]

NHC track does now indicate the start of a bend to the left toward southern New England. It's in between the various models (Euro/Canadian/GFS) and non-committal as of yet. No reason to commit to a particular model just yet. I sort of like last night's GFS solution but wouldn't rule out a southern New England hit. TS winds to graze the beaches of FL and the Carolinas. Inland winds 20-30 mph across FL.

Wxman the Euro has near hurricane force winds for parts of the East Coast of Florida due to the system expanding and becoming more of a hybrid system...the 12Z GFS just shifted west bringing in higher winds to East Coast of Florida....NOGAPS near direct hit on SE Florida, NAM shows something similar as far as the NOGAPS track. Thoughts?

[wxman57]

Should there be a Hurricane Watch for parts of SE Florida based on those models?

Given the high confidence in the track over the next few days, and the fact that any hurricane force winds would cover a relatively small area (and NHC isn't forecasting a hurricane north of Cuba), I'd say that a hurricane watch for southeast Florida is unlikely. A TS warning is in order for SE FL, as TS winds should be brushing the coast within the next 36 hrs (late afternoon tomorrow). Don't know why the NHC didn't issue a TS warning yet.

[wxman57]

NHC track does now indicate the start of a bend to the left toward southern New England. It's in between the various models (Euro/Canadian/GFS) and non-committal as of yet. No reason to commit to a particular model just yet. I sort of like last night's GFS solution but wouldn't rule out a southern New England hit. TS winds to graze the beaches of FL and the Carolinas. Inland winds 20-30 mph across FL.

Wxman the Euro has near hurricane force winds for parts of the East Coast of Florida due to the system expanding and becoming more of a hybrid system...the 12Z GFS just shifted west bringing in higher winds to East Coast of Florida....NOGAPS near direct hit on SE Florida, NAM shows something similar as far as the NOGAPS track. Thoughts?

There is a good deal of uncertainty as to Sandy's wind field structure across the Bahamas. I NEVER look at NOGAPS, except to find out where a storm WON'T go. I think that if the models are in error, they may be expanding the wind field a bit too much at least initially.

[cycloneye]

wxman57, do you see Sandy as Subtropical or Extratropical when or if it goes to the Mid Atlantic states and New England?

[MiamiensisWx]

Satellite imagery suggests that the eye is contracting as Sandy deepens...am I correct? The long-term movement (still N based upon reconnaissance data) would, upon extrapolation, suggest a landfall over or just <5 n mi east of downtown Kingston (over the eastern suburbs).

[Weatherguy173]

with regard to the east coast, if you look back at irene last year, even though being in a much different position, was projected 5 days prior to landfall in the NY-NJ area, to pass well east of NJ and NY (computer models that is). Let me know what you guys think.
http://vielmetti.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83 ... 970b-500wi

[wxman57]

wxman57, do you see Sandy as Subtropical or Extratropical when or if it goes to the Mid Atlantic states and New England?

Yes.

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde found 974mb with 30 kt of wind, so the central pressure appears to be down to 971mb now.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Should there be a Hurricane Watch for parts of SE Florida based on those models?

Given the high confidence in the track over the next few days, and the fact that any hurricane force winds would cover a relatively small area (and NHC isn't forecasting a hurricane north of Cuba), I'd say that a hurricane watch for southeast Florida is unlikely. A TS warning is in order for SE FL, as TS winds should be brushing the coast within the next 36 hrs (late afternoon tomorrow). Don't know why the NHC didn't issue a TS warning yet.

Wxman57,

I always follow you post and have always been helpful. I ask this yesterday but with the slight shift west I need to make some decisions. In your opinion will I have a major or minor issue with rising water leavels in my canal in north Key Largo. My concern is when the storm gets north of there the winds will be blowing in from the NW, so my thinking is that that will push water from the bay up into the canal. If so need to be heading down and getting stuff up off the lower leavel floor. Again thank you for your response.

[jlauderdal]

with regard to the east coast, if you look back at irene last year, even though being in a much different position, was projected 5 days prior to landfall in the NY-NJ area, to pass well east of NJ and NY (computer models that is). Let me know what you guys think.
http://vielmetti.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83 ... 970b-500wi

error 5 days out is approx 300 miles so stay tuned

[jlauderdal]

the cone of uncertainty should be MUCH bigger, the computer models have changed so much in the past few forecasts.

the cone of uncertainty is driven by statistics only, not by changes in the models or a forecasters opinion, math only dictates the cone..see here for more details..cone continues to get smaller as forecasts become better


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

[tgenius]

So what this basically boils down to is my drive home after work tomorrow is going to be uncomfortable with the wind and rain coming in

[Evil Jeremy]

Center pass pressure was 971.2 with 22kts of flight level winds. That makes the pressure about 969, right?

[jlauderdal]

Should there be a Hurricane Watch for parts of SE Florida based on those models?

only if the criteria is met..see her for more info, nhc and only nhc makes the decision, very tricky as usual especially for a system like this one that is close..http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/wwa.php

[wxman57]

Should there be a Hurricane Watch for parts of SE Florida based on those models?

Given the high confidence in the track over the next few days, and the fact that any hurricane force winds would cover a relatively small area (and NHC isn't forecasting a hurricane north of Cuba), I'd say that a hurricane watch for southeast Florida is unlikely. A TS warning is in order for SE FL, as TS winds should be brushing the coast within the next 36 hrs (late afternoon tomorrow). Don't know why the NHC didn't issue a TS warning yet.

Wxman57,

I always follow you post and have always been helpful. I ask this yesterday but with the slight shift west I need to make some decisions. In your opinion will I have a major or minor issue with rising water leavels in my canal in north Key Largo. My concern is when the storm gets north of there the winds will be blowing in from the NW, so my thinking is that that will push water from the bay up into the canal. If so need to be heading down and getting stuff up off the lower level floor. Again thank you for your response.

Probably more of NNW than NW wind. I'd say 25-35 mph on average with gusts in the 40s. I'm not familiar enough with that area to estimate water increase. A couple feet, maybe?

[jlauderdal]

So what this basically boils down to is my drive home after work tomorrow is going to be uncomfortable with the wind and rain coming in

same as typical thunderstorm activity in the summer but more sustained with the wind..get to work