Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Caribxgirl, what are the latest news in Jamaica? Any updated news? How the people feel? Francky, i don't like how Sandy is moving close to your island.

Don't forget to keep us informed as possible, we will glad . We're happy to discuss with you. The carib team is here and with you (Cycloneye, Msbee, Abajan, Macrocane, Bvigal, HUC and me Gusytywind, even those i've forget to mentionned:oops: .

See you soon, keeping our fingers crossed

I imagine that she is very busy right now with the preparations. Also,the power may be out as the bad weather approaches.But I expect her to report all of what is going on in that island when she can of course.

[Gustywind]

Caribxgirl, what are the latest news in Jamaica? Any updated news? How the people feel? Francky, i don't like how Sandy is moving close to your island.

Don't forget to keep us informed as possible, we will glad . We're happy to discuss with you. The carib team is here and with you (Cycloneye, Msbee, Abajan, Macrocane, Bvigal, HUC and me Gusytywind, even those i've forget to mentionned:oops: .

See you soon, keeping our fingers crossed

I imagine that she is very busy right now with the preparations. Also,the power may be out as the bad weather approaches.But I expect her to report all of what is going on in that island when she can of course.

Yeah Cycloneye, it's always something special concerning the preparations . Let's hope that she could provide us the best even if the weather conditions are expected to deteriorate.

[Gustywind]

By the way, Cycloneye do you read my post speaking about the cyclonic swell?

[cycloneye]

By the way, Cycloneye do you read my post speaking about the cyclonic swell?

Yes,that is very interesting and very important information.

[Gustywind]

By the way, Cycloneye do you read my post speaking about the cyclonic swell?

Yes,that is very interesting and very important information.

[cycloneye]

Breaking news about a strong quake in Costa Rica. Get the details at the geology forum.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=114060&hilit=&p=2282358#p2282358

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
912 PM AST TUE OCT 23 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS PERSIST IN AREAS WHERE INFLOW TO TROPICAL STORM
SANDY IS CONVERGING...OTHERWISE MOST ACTIVITY HAS DIED DOWN.
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST DOWNWIND FROM PUERTO RICO AND MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AFTER MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE
SHOWERS WILL NOT REGENERATE UNTIL MIDDAY HEATING TAKES EFFECT.
CIRRUS SHIELD MAY ALSO BE THINNER THEN AS BANDS MOVE BY THE AREA.
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TO ADJUST TOWARD MODEL SOLUTION OF THE
GFS. GFS HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ITS FORECAST FOR THE
LOCAL AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST WED OCT 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM SANDY SPREADING BANDING SHOWERS INTO
THE SOUND END OF MONA PASSAGE. EXPECT SOME OF THESE TO GRADUALLY
WORK TOWARDS PR BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH TO BE A FLOODING THREAT
TODAY. FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS SHOULD HOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION DOWN
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ON NORTH SIDE OF MAINLAND PR
WHILE MORE WINDWARD SOUTH SIDE OF PR WILL SEE MORE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER TO HOLD NEAR 2 INCHES AT THE OUTSKIRTS
OF SANDY UNTIL LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH
EARLY ON THU. A LITTLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A
GREATER UPSLOPE COMPONENT MAKE NUMEROUS SHOWERS MORE LIKELY FOR
CORDILLERA SOUTH TO THE COAST ON THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 59 HAS REACHED 23 KNOTS SUSTAINED...A LITTLE ABOVE
GUIDANCE BUT EXPECT WINDS THAT STRONG TO SKIRT A LITTLE WEST OF SJU
MARINE ZONES AS SANDY MOVES NORTH OVER JAMAICA TODAY. ENOUGH WINDS
ARE PRESENT TO BUILD CHOPPY SEAS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF ISLANDS.
SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED BY TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLD LYRS BTW FL100-FL250 FM
TROPICAL STORM SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FLYING AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FEW-ISOLD PASSING SHOWERS AND L/LVL SCT CLD LYRS
BTW FL020-FL050 WILL REMAIN PSBL IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST...TISX
AND TNCM/TKPK THROUGH ABOUT 24/15Z. L/LVL WNDS SFC-FL100 MAINLY FM
EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...THEN VEERING W/HT BCMG MORE SLY
AND FAIRLY LGT WNDS WITH WND SPD LESS THAN 10 KTS UP TO FL250.NO
SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 78 / 30 20 40 30
STT 87 77 88 79 / 10 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Caribwxgirl,stay safe and dry there. The good news is that is starting to move more faster and that will mitigate some of the effects to not last longer. When you can,tell us what is going on and after Sandy passes the aftermath.

[Caribwxgirl]

Morning.

Thanks guys. Well I'm ok some areas reporting flooding already and some loss of power. I still have power as of now. Also it's just steady rains at the moment.

Not a whole lot to report yet just waiting on her now.

[cycloneye]

Morning.

Thanks guys. Well I'm ok some areas reporting flooding already and some loss of power. I still have power as of now. Also it's just steady rains at the moment.

Not a whole lot to report yet just waiting on her now.

Hunker down as now Hurricane Sandy is closing on the island. Here is a live stream TV station coverage.

http://www.televisionjamaica.com/LiveTV.aspx

[Macrocane]

Be safe Caribwxgirl, it will be a nasty day today, but our best wishes are with Jamaica, Cuba and Hispaniola.

[Caribwxgirl]

Well I'm actually watching that on my television right now so I don't have to click the link. Its our main and most reliable local station. There's also http://www.cvmtv.com/live/stream.php.

Still have power. There are some reports of downed trees and the road to the airport in Kingston is flooded. There are also reports of some rivers already in spate.

[cycloneye]

Let us know after all is over if you are fine in your place and about how things look in your area.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Sandy makes landfall in Jamaica

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
320 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 76.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...8 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH...
130 KM/H.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST WED OCT 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE SANDY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY FAST MOVING PASSING
SHOWERS HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO. OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD
COVERAGE HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH RECENTLY UPGRADE HURRICANE
SANDY...WHICH IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON.
SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS SANDY MOVES NORTH...SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FAVOR BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE FUTURE TRACK
OF HURRICANE SANDY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX WITH A
MID-HIGH LEVEL OVC. THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEXT FEW
DAYS IF SFC WINDS DECOUPLE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE STRONG
JUST OFF THE SFC.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS HURRICANE SANDY
MOVES OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. REFER TO
MARINE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 88 / 0 10 30 30
STT 77 87 79 88 / 20 20 40 40

[Macrocane]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

AT 15UTC HURRICANE SANDY CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 76.7W...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 973 HPA. THE
HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 11KT.

DISCUSSION FROM OCT 24/00 UTC: THE NHC FORECASTS HURRICANE SANDY
TO ENTER JAMAICA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING ON THURSDAY IT IS TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA. THEY
CONTINUE TO FORESEE WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE...WITH STORM TO THEN PULL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY-EARLY ON FRIDAY.

ACROSS JAMAICA TO EASTERN CUBA/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE HAITIAN
PENINSULA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 150-200MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 350-500MM/DAY. CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 75-125MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 250-300MM/DAY.
FURTHERMORE...AS THE HURRICANE SUSTAINS A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THIS WILL ENHANCE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN HAITI TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 75-125MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 250-300MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. BUT AS THE STORM PULLS
AWAY...THIS WILL DECREASE TO 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-150MM/DAY BY 36-60 HRS...WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM THEN FORECAST
FOR 60-84 HRS.

WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...AT MID/UPPER LEVELS HIGH SOUTH OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ANCHORS A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHWEST USA. BROAD RIDGE PATTERN IS TO HOLD THROUGH 42-48 HRS...
THEN QUICKLY FLATTEN BY 60-72 HRS AS A POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A POLAR FRONT INTO
NORTHERN COAHUILA BY 54 HRS...THAT EXPANDS ACROSS THE RIO BRAVO TO
NUEVO LEON-COAHUILA BY 72 HRS. A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE WILL THEN
DRIVE THIS FRONT SOUTH INTO TAMAULIPAS THROUGH 84 HRS. AS THE
RIDGE HOLD...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DOMINATE MEXICO OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS TO THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO BRAVO ON DAY 03...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS/SHOWERS ARE THEN LIKELY ON DAY 04 ACROSS
VERACRUZ/SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AS THE NORTHERLIES SURGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF.

A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES TO THE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
RIDGE...WITH AXIS AT 250 HPA EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN/CENTRAL AMERICA. TROUGH IS TO REACH
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE EARLY IN THE CYCLE...BUT AS THE RIDGE TO WEST
BEGINS TO WANE/COLLAPSE...THE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE CYCLE. THE TROUGH
NOW FOCUSES ITS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS GUATEMALA TO NORTHERN
HONDURAS. THIS COMBINES WITH LONG FETCH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS.
OTHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH...WITH TROUGH ALOFT
INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS COSTA RICA. IN
THIS AREA...IN HIGH RISK OF ECHO TRAINING...WE NOW EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM/DAY THROUGH 36
HRS...AND 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY AT 36-48 HRS. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION CLUSTERING ON THE
PACIFIC COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ACROSS
COLOMBIA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ACROSS EJE CAFETERO/GULF OF URABA
REGION EARLY IN THE CYCLE. OVER CENTRAL-NORTHWEST VENEZUELA
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY.

EAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS...WHILE AT MID LEVELS A RIDGE
BUILDING FROM THE EAST FAVORS A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
HOLD DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...MEANWHILE... IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY ERODE THROUGH 48 HRS
AS IT YIELDS TO DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST...WITH ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE CAP ALSO FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ERODE. AT LOW
LEVELS...WINDS ARE TO COME UNDER INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE SANDY. AS
THE CYCLONE LIFTS ACROSS JAMAICA-CUBA THE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ESTABLISH LATER
ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWAT TO QUICKLY SURGE ABOVE 50MM.
IN RESPONSE TO THE WANING CAP AND INFLOW OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PROGRESSIVELY WETTER
PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STARTING ON THURSDAY AND
BECOMING MORE ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED ON FRIDAY. INITIALLY EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY ON DAY
02...WHILE ON DAY 03 THIS IS TO INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM/DAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE EAST OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE...WITH
AXIS SOUTH ALONG 50W TO EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA/ORINOCO DELTA
REGION. A LOW IS TO FORM ALONG THIS AXIS NEAR 10N 50W BY 42/48
HRS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...THE LOW/TROUGH
WILL START TO RETROGRESS ACROSS THE GUIANAS...REACHING THE ORINOCO
DELTA REGION IN NORTHEAST VENEZUELA ON DAY 04. THE GUIANAS ARE TO
GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS TROUGH DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...INHIBITING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. SOME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN GUYANA/SURINAME
ON DAY 03...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM/DAY.

PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC...FORECAST
FROM 00UTC.

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
41W 43W 45W 47W 49W 51W DISP. TW

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED
WITH TUTT EXTENDING OVER THE GUIANAS. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT TO THE ATLANTIC ITCZ.

SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Sad news to report from Jamaica. My condolenses to the families.

Hurricane Sandy crosses Jamaica; kill 2 in Caribbean
October 25, 2012 00:55 GMT

KINGSTON, Jamaica (AP) -- Jamaican police say Hurricane Sandy has killed another person.

An elderly man died when he was crushed by a boulder that rolled onto his clapboard house. Earlier today, a woman in nearby Haiti was swept away by a rushing river she was trying to cross.

http://www.wwmt.com/template/inews_wire ... .com.shtml

[cycloneye]

I would like to see reports from Haiti as it has been raing a lot there. Let's see if we can find news from there.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Moisture will increase in the next few days in PR as the flow changes from the south bringing deep moisture.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST THU OCT 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
IT WILL BUILD AND EXTEND NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS....BEFORE
GRADUALLY ERODING BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THE LOW LEVELS THE
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND NOW
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE SANDY...AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE WIND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY AS HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TODAY. HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUED TO MOVE
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF CUBA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARDS
THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTH NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IN
DOING SO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM SANDY BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVEL ONLY SHALLOW FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS NOTED MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION AT THIS TIME...AS A FAIRLY DECENT SUBSIDENT CAP REMAINED IN
PLACE. HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
OCCURRING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MONA PASSAGE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SUBSIDENCE CAP...TO LIMIT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESENT
WIND FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY STEER ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BE OF SHORT DURATION ACROSS PUERTO RICO. OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES TODAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE SCENARIO IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AND OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...AND
MOIST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIFTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AS SANDY CONTINUES NORTHWARDS. IN ADDITION...
THE ERODING MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THE
SUBSIDENCE CAP WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MUCH OF WHICH WILL BE DUE TO HURRICANE
SANDY LIFTING NORTHWARDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THAT SAID DECIDED
TO CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY WET PATTERN IN THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR
THE LONG TERM WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHORT TERM...AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER
24 HOURS OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANDY WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TISX AND TJPS THROUGH ABOUT 25/15Z.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AN INCREASE ON
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO FROM
25/18Z THROUGH 25/22Z...AFFECTING THE TJSJ AND TJBQ TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 86 79 / 10 20 30 20
STT 88 79 87 80 / 10 40 40 40