ATL: SANDY - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
stephen23
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 341
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:57 pm
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#441 Postby stephen23 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:22 pm

Oh wow. Look at the 120hr Euro!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#442 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:22 pm

Are models picking up on ridging or is the influence of an upper-level low that is sitting over the Western tip of Cuba....with SE to NW upper-level flow North of Cuba and over the Bahamas?

It's clearly seen spinning in this loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
0 likes   
Top
MiamiensisWx

#443 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:24 pm

12Z ECMWF 120hr shows a powerful, 934-mb extratropical low making landfall on southern Maryland, just northeast of Virginia Beach, VA:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP120.gif
0 likes   
Top
adam0983

Re:

#444 Postby adam0983 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:26 pm

Based on the recent Euro and GFS run does anyone see any big track changes at the 5pm advisory?
0 likes   
Top
stephen23
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 341
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:57 pm
Location: North Fort Worth

Re:

#445 Postby stephen23 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:27 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:12Z ECMWF 120hr shows a powerful, 934-mb extratropical low making landfall on southern Maryland, just northeast of Virginia Beach, VA:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP120.gif



Also showing 100kt 850mb winds on coast correct?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#446 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:27 pm

Regardless how close it gets to FL just the pressure gradient between Sandy and the big high pressure will mean very windy and rough water conditions for eastern FL, beach erosion will be a big problem, IMO.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#447 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:29 pm

Well this would be something else ... DC area?

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#448 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:30 pm

Does it hit the Carolina coast first?
0 likes   
Top
adam0983

Re:

#449 Postby adam0983 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:30 pm

Wow could be a repeat of Hurricane Irene last year.
0 likes   
Top
crimi481
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 602
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:47 pm

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#450 Postby crimi481 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:31 pm

Models do not factor in how Sandy may "skip"around, when first hits S. Cuba coast (x factor)
Could get interesting for Keys/ S. Fl
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#451 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:33 pm

144 hours:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Re:

#452 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:35 pm

adam0983 wrote:Based on the recent Euro and GFS run does anyone see any big track changes at the 5pm advisory?


Possible..maybe a slight shift to the left.

Hopefully these adjustments stop though. :(
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re:

#453 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:40 pm

StormingB81 wrote:Does it hit the Carolina coast first?


No.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#454 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:49 pm

Looks like another westward shift maybe forthcoming..

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#455 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:14 pm

12Z GFS showing the transition to extra-trop just north of the Bahamas around 28N

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... phase1.png
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#456 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:32 pm

Image
12Z Euro showing possible hurricane gusts near east/central Florida coast.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#457 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:37 pm

12Z FIM model bends NW:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#458 Postby chris_fit » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:44 pm

It's interesting to note that the more intense part of the storm is being predicted to be on the west side of the storm. Do we have any verificiation on how models do with predicting the intensity of different parts of storms?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#459 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:44 pm

Our RPM model, from WSI, has Sandy just offshore really lashing the coast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re:

#460 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:46 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Our RPM model, from WSI, has Sandy just offshore really lashing the coast.



Can you post? :D
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests