ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[bzukajo]

So, looking at everything, what kind of surge are we talking about around the NYC area? I know the subways become vulnerable at some point, along with a good chunk of the city. Do I need to find the "It Could Happen Tomorrow" episode? Of course, this isn't to downplay the threats elsewhere...but if this looks to happen, being a week out, I would imagine any evacuations would have to start within the next few days?

I am curious about this too. Irene had a significant storm surge in Long Island Sound. The eastern part of the golf course in Rye was completely under seawater. It went right up to the house next to my father's. I am not sure how many feet that was vertically, but it had to be at least 5 feet or more. I hope this does not have a surge potential larger than that.

[SFLcane]

TS Watch area..

ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO OCEAN REEF OUT TO 60
NM AND GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE OUT
20 NM AND CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING THE
WATERS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

[crimi481]

I am no Pro -but just watching loop - seems like ridging to Sandy's North, wants to push her more West?
Effects of diving Trough wouln't come into play for few days yet?
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

I love to wobble watch and IMO Sandy is on track to be slightly left of the next forecast point.

I wobble quite often - as time goes by

[SFLcane]

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ghls/php/ghls_index.php?sid=MFL

[justinggibbs]

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds ... &node=kwno

4 a day Radiosondes for the entire CONUS starting tomorrow.

[ozonepete]

So, looking at everything, what kind of surge are we talking about around the NYC area? I know the subways become vulnerable at some point, along with a good chunk of the city. Do I need to find the "It Could Happen Tomorrow" episode? Of course, this isn't to downplay the threats elsewhere...but if this looks to happen, being a week out, I would imagine any evacuations would have to start within the next few days?

It's a massive operation to run when a hurricane (or equivalent hybrid nor'easter) threatens. I know that the NYC Office of Emergency Management has a conference call this afternoon at 4PM for all NYC officers. This will be a first briefing. This could be the first cancelled school day for a hurricane since Hurricane Gloria in 1985 since Irene from two years ago was on a Sunday. Evacuations have to be styarted 48 hours ahead of time for the lowest lying areas.

[michaelder]

Copied from Weather Underground for Norman Manley Airport on peninsula south of Kingston Jamaica at 3:30 EDT

Kingston Weather at a Glance
Weather Station
Kingston / Norman Manley
Elevation
10 ft

Now
Heavy Rain
Temperature
80 °F
Feels Like 80 °F
Wind(mph)
116

Wind 116 has to be in error?

[artist]

Copied from Weather Underground for Norman Manley Airport on peninsula south of Kingston Jamaica at 3:30 EDT

Kingston Weather at a Glance
Weather Station
Kingston / Norman Manley
Elevation
10 ft

Now
Heavy Rain
Temperature
80 °F
Feels Like 80 °F
Wind(mph)
116

Wind 116 has to be in error?

I sure hope so, though I guess I gust could have come in at that.

[OuterBanker]

Probably kph (kilometers per hour)

[CourierPR]

Probably kph (kilometers per hour)

I think that's about 70 mph.

[OuterBanker]

Yep, 72 mph and change

[Tireman4]

Gotta be. (In KPH, that is)



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[cycloneye]

Eye emerging from Jamaica.

[hurricanekid416]

Hey guys im new it may be hard to beleive but i am a 13 year old kid that loves to track hurricanes i wont be immature ive been watching this form for a while so with Sandy, i live in delaware and im worried because ive never really been through a hurricane if this storm were to hit here what would the effects be?

[Sanibel]

I don't think I've ever seen a south-north transiting hurricane through Jamaica.

[gatorcane]

Sandy is gradually expanding in size...as she becomes more hybrid as she passes through the Bahamas will be interesting if this west-weighted system prediction the globals are showing comes to fruition:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Cloud deck from outflow penetrating into South Florida as ridging that has been keeping the clouds east of the state the past several days is breaking down over Florida and the Bahamas.

[Weatherguy173]

I don't think I've ever seen a south-north transiting hurricane through Jamaica.

and then goes east to west possibly later on... - this thing could have one freaky path

[jaxfladude]

Just how long was Sandy over Jamaica, did it really clear the island already or still on land?

[Evil Jeremy]

New advisory within 30 minutes. How big of a change do you think the NHC will make in the track? Short term, they will likely move it closer to Florida a bit, as nearly all the models have moved west in 2-3 days. And I think TS warnings for most of the watch area.

[cycloneye]

Just how long was Sandy over Jamaica, did it really clear the island already or still on land?

It made landfall around 3 PM EDT and an hour and a half later the complete eye is almost at the water.