ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The most important lines of the 5 PM discussion.

WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF EAST/WEST SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE GFS
HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN BY THE ECMWF OF
MORE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH. WHILE THE GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF HAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS
CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AS WELL...AND
LIES ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY HIGH...AND IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC IMPACTS FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLORIDA.

[gatorcane]

http://oi50.tinypic.com/hsm878.jpg

NHC now buying into the NNW bend in the Bahamas. Lets hope that the west bend doesn't become more pronounced.

Looks like the NHC track is not as far west as some of the models bring it in the Bahamas but looks like they took a compromise of the GFS and ECMWF?

[MiamiensisWx]

The faster short-term movement probably prevented the NHC from shifting the cone farther west in the Bahamas. The faster movement means Sandy will initially feel the weakness more than expected--and by the time it turns back to the NNW, it will be at a higher latitude in the central Bahamas.

[Macrocane]

I'm amazed how gigantic Sandy's circulation is

[stephen23]

yes and also put it as a hurricane east of florida. Pretty big change I would think?

We've been wondering why the NHC didn't have it as a hurricane in the Bahamas. SHIPS intensity forecasts won't work well with a system transitioning to subtropical as Sandy will be. What you don't see on the NHC track between 96 and 120 hrs is that 108hr position, which may indicate more of a hook beginning. Prime target central NJ to southern Maine. Much larger storm than Irene, though lacking an intense core as it will probably be ET or close to it by then. Major flooding likely from strong onshore flow.

Waxman, do you think there is a possibility to see the 100kt 850mb wind speeds at landfall depicted on the 12z Euro? Also in that model it seems to have wide spread 70+kt winds?

[PTrackerLA]

I have family in CT and they are concerned about Sandy and the potential power outages. Would anyone like to go out on a limb and speculate if the power outages will be like Irene for this area or worse? (they sure hope not!)

[x-y-no]

I have family in CT and they are concerned about Sandy and the potential power outages. Would anyone like to go out on a limb and speculate if the power outages will be like Irene for this area or worse? (they sure hope not!)

So much depends on just where it makes landfall. But there's definitely potential for a bigger impact than Irene.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters made another discussion with the 12z global model imput of the long term scenarios. The last paragraph will be very important for future model runs.

Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic, New England, and Canada
The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are in, and they portray an increased risk to the U.S. and Canadian East Coasts for early next week. The GFS model, which had been showing that Sandy would head to the northeast out to sea, now has changed its tune, and predicts that Sandy will double back and hit Maine on Tuesday evening. The ECMWF model, which has been very consistent in its handling of Sandy, now has the storm hitting Delaware on Monday afternoon. These models are predicting that Sandy will get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into the storm, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph. Winds of this strength would likely cause massive power outages, as trees still in leaf take out power lines. Also of great concern are Sandy's rains. Given that ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S. coast are about 5°F above average, there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain. If the trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast taps into the large reservoir of cold air over Canada and pulls down a significant amount of Arctic air, as predicted, the potential exists for the unusually moist air from Sandy to collide with this cold air from Canada and unleash the heaviest October rains ever recorded in the Northeast U.S. Another huge concern is storm surge flooding. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding.

There remains a lot of model uncertainty on where Sandy might go, and I still give a 30% chance that the storm will have a minimal impact on the U.S. An extra set of balloon-borne radiosondes is going to be launched at 2 pm EDT on Thursday all across the U.S., which should help tomorrow evening's model runs make better forecasts of where Sandy might go. Extra radiosondes will be launched every 6 hours through Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

[WeatherGuesser]

If this track holds (or moves further west), next week could be very unpleasant up east.

[hurricanekid416]

To all the experts out there when do you think Sandy will transition in to a sub tropical or extratropical system and how will that change effects in the North East

[Hurricane_Luis]

Hey guys im new it may be hard to beleive but i am a 13 year old kid that loves to track hurricanes i wont be immature ive been watching this form for a while so with Sandy, i live in delaware and im worried because ive never really been through a hurricane if this storm were to hit here what would the effects be?

Hi, I see you have just joined, i am 14 and welcome to Storm2k

[hurricanekid416]

Hey guys im new it may be hard to beleive but i am a 13 year old kid that loves to track hurricanes i wont be immature ive been watching this form for a while so with Sandy, i live in delaware and im worried because ive never really been through a hurricane if this storm were to hit here what would the effects be?

Hi, I see you have just joined, i am 14 and welcome to Storm2k

oh nice to see we have some younger people in this form

[Aric Dunn]

dont know if anyone posted this yet.. looks to be deepening pretty quick..

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

To all the experts out there when do you think Sandy will transition in to a sub tropical or extratropical system and how will that change effects in the North East

The below link contains a good general analog of what we might be dealing with here:

http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/almanac/arc2010/alm10oct.htm

The above link contains an excellent description of the hurricane based upon the recent HURDAT Re-analysis, and old news paper articles from 1869 of the Saxby Gale/Great Northeastern Rainstorm.


DISCLAIMER

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

Also appears to have been moving with just a little west of north motion for the last couple hours.

[marciacubed]

I thought so too and I couldn't click on your link on your last post.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I'm surprised there are no inland warnings for Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties.

[WeatherGuesser]

Also appears to have been moving with just a little west of north motion for the last couple hours.

Yeahhhhh, we don't need that. The 5 Day has a definite left hook from Monday to Tuesday that we don't need either.

[jaxfladude]

All my thoughts and prayers are for those that been and will be impacted by Sandy.

[Jevo]

I'm surprised there are no inland warnings for Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties.

From the latest update

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET

I know it is somewhat misleading, but anytime this terminology is used for watches and warnings in related to coastal South Florida on either coast it includes the entire county that lies on that Coast... So pretty much from the Beach to I95 for this advisory..

From the latest local statement for Inland areas

FLZ063-066>075-174-250600-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.S.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
557 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...FREQUENT STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE...

...WINDS...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED, FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AND AREAS NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM SANDY, RAINBANDS COULD MOVE ONSHORE, RESULTING IN
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT STRONG WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE.
THIS RISK IS GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. EVEN IF RAINBANDS
REMAIN OFF THE COAST, WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE MIXING TO THE GROUND. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR AREAS NOT UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... +Statement