ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This is not the appearance of a Category 1 hurricane. Based on satellite appearance alone, Sandy is probably a Category 2. And an intensifying one at that.

[Bocadude85]

I'm surprised there are no inland warnings for Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties.

I do not understand this either considering Inland Martin county to our north is under a TS warning and so is Lake Okeechobee

[cycloneye]

This is not the appearance of a Category 1 hurricane. Based on satellite appearance alone, Sandy is probably a Category 2. And an intensifying one at that.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES21482012298xBtlXl.jpg

The plane will tell the real story about how strong Sandy is.

[JamesCaneTracker]

This is not the appearance of a Category 1 hurricane. Based on satellite appearance alone, Sandy is probably a Category 2. And an intensifying one at that.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES21482012298xBtlXl.jpg

Recon will soon be in the system to give us the latest information... Just sit tight! lol Most likely it's deepening at a fairly good clip now but we will soon find out!

[cycloneye]

Topografy of Cuba. The Sierra Maestra with 6,000 foot mountains awaits,unless it avoids them.

[thetraveler]

To my untrained eye, based on the above posted satelite image verses the radar loop posted on the previous page, it looks like she is moving more westerly than northerly. Does anyone else see that?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

The most important lines of the 5 PM discussion.

WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF EAST/WEST SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE GFS HAS TRENDED OWARD THE SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN BY THE ECMWF OF MORE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH. WHILE THE GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF HAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AS WELL...AND LIES ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY HIGH...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC IMPACTS FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF FLORIDA.

Yes, Luis, this is starting to make a lot of people up here very nervous. They are still repairing damaged bridges and roads from Irene 2 years ago, especially in New York, New Jersey and New England, and this could be much worse. I'm especially concerned about the possibility of much higher water damage along the coastline. The projected path and the full moon on Monday are a worst case scenario for storm surge on top of astronomical high tides.

But we have to think about our Jamaica, Cuba, Bahama and Florida friends first. Good luck to everybody. Stay safe.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Eek.

[ozonepete]

To my untrained eye, based on the above posted satelite image verses the radar loop posted on the previous page, it looks like she is moving more westerly than northerly. Does anyone else see that?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric talked about this earlier. Hurricanes often jog erratically as they make landfall and then correct their motion back to the expected track. But land interaction can definitely shift the track enough to affect the future path to some degree. I definitely see that it jogged a little west but it should resume northward motion soon. The slight NNW motion the NHC expects after it crosses Cuba will have to be watched really closely though.

[thetraveler]

To my untrained eye, based on the above posted satelite image verses the radar loop posted on the previous page, it looks like she is moving more westerly than northerly. Does anyone else see that?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric talked about this earlier. Hurricanes often jog erratically as they make landfall and then correct their motion back to the expected track. But land interaction can definitely shift the track enough to affect the future path to some degree. I definitely see that it jogged a little west but it should resume northward motion soon. The slight NNW motion the NHC expects after it crosses Cuba will have to be watched really closely though.

Thank you for your reply

[HurrMark]

I don't see any westerly movement...it still looks like about 005 degrees...or just east of due north. I would be shocked to see this still at 80 mph though...it is getting together in a hurry.

[WeatherGuesser]

They are still repairing damaged bridges and roads from Irene 2 years ago,

I was thinking two years ago too, but the Wiki says August 2011.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene

[ozonepete]

They are still repairing damaged bridges and roads from Irene 2 years ago,

I was thinking two years ago too, but the Wiki says August 2011.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene

Thanks for the correction! I can't believe I thought 2 years had gone by. I guess I was hoping it had been. Boy, so people up here may only have gotten a year's break. Yeesh...

[WYNweather]

And the rain has started in pompano beach

[HurrMark]

'Sandy' is now due south (and thus east) of the next forecast point. The further east it goes, the less Cuba it has to cross. Would be interested to see if that has an impact on the forecast.

[Bocadude85]

'Sandy' is now due south (and thus east) of the next forecast point. The further east it goes, the less Cuba it has to cross. Would be interested to see if that has an impact on the forecast.

Hurricanes do not move in a straight line. She wobbled NNW a few hours ago and is now wobbling NNE but if you smooth out the wobbles you will get a motion petty close to N. She appears to be right on the forecast track to me.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Talked to family in Jamaica, everyone seems fine and no major damage to their house as of now. They have a very well built house in a nice neighborhood though but still good news

[ozonepete]

'Sandy' is now due south (and thus east) of the next forecast point. The further east it goes, the less Cuba it has to cross. Would be interested to see if that has an impact on the forecast.

Hurricanes do not move in a straight line. She wobbled NNW a few hours ago and is now wobbling NNE but if you smooth out the wobbles you will get a motion petty close to N. She appears to be right on the forecast track to me.

That's a really good answer. You have to look at the smoothed motion over at least 6 hours to get a true direction of motion because of the very short-term wobbles.

[WYNweather]

Guantanamo Bay NAS, Cuba wind SSE@46 mph
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weathe ... n=CUXX0016

[SouthDadeFish]

Cuba better look out. Phenomenal structure: