ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Cuba better look out. Phenomenal structure:

http://imageshack.us/a/img338/4966/2012 ... h18lsa.jpg

Oh my!

[HurrMark]

'Sandy' is now due south (and thus east) of the next forecast point. The further east it goes, the less Cuba it has to cross. Would be interested to see if that has an impact on the forecast.

Hurricanes do not move in a straight line. She wobbled NNW a few hours ago and is now wobbling NNE but if you smooth out the wobbles you will get a motion petty close to N. She appears to be right on the forecast track to me.

That's a really good answer. You have to look at the smoothed motion over at least 6 hours to get a true direction of motion because of the very short-term wobbles.

But at this juncture, with it so close to Cuba, any wobble will be that much more magnified...the coastline is essentially like a triangle with the "hypotenuse" getting closer to the "vertex" the further east you go. So if it wobbles west and makes landfall at 77W, it would have to go about 120 miles to cross the island vs. a wobble east to 76W, where it would just need to go about 70 miles...that could make a difference of the intensity when it reemerges.

On the flip side, the topography is higher the further east you go, so that could offset (and then some) the effect of less land required to cross. But if you look at a topographic map, there is an small area roughly around 76W where a northward traversing storm would have relatively flat terrain to cross...it will be interesting to see how this pans out...

[galaxy401]

Might be a cat 2 now. Got to see when recon gets there. Hope there wasn't a lot of damage in Jamaica!

[AdamFirst]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 76.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

Conservative estimate IMO
waiting for recon

[Nate-Gillson]

I wouldn't be surprised if Sandy is already a borderline cat 3, much less a cat 4.

[Weatherguy173]

I wouldn't be surprised if Sandy is already a borderline cat 3, much less a cat 4.

still cat 1 - but waiting for recon aircraft i think

[bahamaswx]

Maybe winds haven't caught up yet, but with a structure like that the pressure has to have dropped more than just a few mbs.

[CrazyC83]

It may be becoming a monster?

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 OCT 2012 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 18:30:33 N Lon : 76:22:38 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 956.8mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 6.4 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.5C Cloud Region Temp : -76.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.7 degrees

[jlauderdal]

Due to Hurricane Sandy, all Palm Beach County public schools will release students three hours early on Thursday, with no after school or evening activities, and all schools will be closed on Friday.

Broward was already scheduled to be closed friday due to teachers workday.

Based on that recent satellite presentation dade county wont be far behind.

[cycloneye]

If recon finds much stronger winds I think a Special Advisory may be comming.

[CrazyC83]

If recon finds much stronger winds I think a Special Advisory may be comming.

I would think so too around 8:30 pm.

[WeatherOrKnot]

Wind and rain is already picking up here in pbc.

[CrazyC83]

From calculating and extrapolating, I am going to guess the pressure in this pass will be about 955mb.

[ozonepete]

If recon finds much stronger winds I think a Special Advisory may be comming.

Could be. All I can say is that is a really impressive satellite presentation. The symmetry and small eye embedded perfectly is amazing. This is really bombing out. I didn't believe cat 2 before but now I do. Looks like Jamaica had virtually no weakening effect on it.

[CrazyC83]

24/2345 UTC 18.7N 76.3W T5.5/5.5 SANDY

Will Recon find similar? Second major of 2012?

[cycloneye]

Wow!!

001430 1837N 07615W 6969 02856 9655 +156 +096 233090 093 069 001 00
001500 1836N 07614W 6970 02883 9687 +152 +076 230095 096 070 001 00
001530 1835N 07613W 6965 02905 9714 +147 +068 230094 095 068 000 00

[AdamFirst]

Recon found 96kt flight level with 961 pressure


In the southeast quadrant

[CrazyC83]

Wow!!

001430 1837N 07615W 6969 02856 9655 +156 +096 233090 093 069 001 00
001500 1836N 07614W 6970 02883 9687 +152 +076 230095 096 070 001 00
001530 1835N 07613W 6965 02905 9714 +147 +068 230094 095 068 000 00

The SFMR from the NW quad also supports at least 80 kt. Given the pressure drop and the NE quad not yet sampled, I would put out a Tropical Cyclone Update with 85 kt, and increase further on the next pass. Pressure looks to be 962mb.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Wow,

As ozone stated amazing how this system has improved. Question now is how close will it get to S fla.

[lester]

Wow!!

001430 1837N 07615W 6969 02856 9655 +156 +096 233090 093 069 001 00
001500 1836N 07614W 6970 02883 9687 +152 +076 230095 096 070 001 00
001530 1835N 07613W 6965 02905 9714 +147 +068 230094 095 068 000 00

that's 'only' in the SE quad apparently