ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

Sandy looks to be moving NNE and their closing schools here in South Florida.I think their premature.But I understand the wind might pick up to 30mph.

What point do they close schools at, 40 mph sustained I thought?

I see their reasoning I think its 35 or 40 mph sustained but its moving NNE away from Florida.I think its beach erosion storm for Florida.

Once again, as it appears we have to explain every time, Sandy north of Cuba is expected to expand its windfield greatly due to it being injected energy from a dropping trough of low pressure. A stronger Sandy (like what's occurring now) means higher winds spread over a greater area, like what the European model is showing (50-60 knot sustained wind over parts of the east coast of Florida)

This is not August, where it'll be a breezy cloudy day as it passes to the east. It's going to be a whole 'nother animal - and that's what a lot of South Floridians are failing to realize.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[WeatherOrKnot]

I think they learned their lesson from Isaac. We got the call at 5am that schools were closed.

[Bocadude85]

Sandy looks to be moving NNE and their closing schools here in South Florida.I think their premature.But I understand the wind might pick up to 30mph.

What point do they close schools at, 40 mph sustained I thought?

I see their reasoning I think its 35 or 40 mph sustained but its moving NNE away from Florida.I think its beach erosion storm for Florida.

Sandy is currently moving North and is forecast to head NNW after Cuba.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

So even with this rapid deeping, we should not expect anything different for South Fla other than what was already expected.

[ozonepete]

Sandy looks to be moving NNE and their closing schools here in South Florida.I think their premature.But I understand the wind might pick up to 30mph...
I see their reasoning I think its 35 or 40 mph sustained but its moving NNE away from Florida.I think its beach erosion storm for Florida.

Sandy is currently moving North and is forecast to head NNW after Cuba.

Thank you for explaining that. People need to be aware that this is a serious storm and it is NOT forecast to be moving NNE away from Florida but North alongside it and even a little NNW.

[boca]

My point is that its moving NNE not north.If this turns NNW after it emerges from the north coast of Cuba I'll eat crow.

[ozonepete]

My point is that its moving NNE not north.If this turns NNW after it emerges from the north coast of Cuba I'll eat crow.

That's the NHC forecast. Look at the forecast track.

[deltadog03]

I also, think sat images are a bit misleading, and that half of the eye looks clouded over, by just looking at the location of the VDM

[AdamFirst]

This is moving due north. Plane fixes have had it moving north. For the past 12 hours or so it's been on a north trajectory, with slight wobbles to the west and east.

In other news,
the FAA Radar at Guantanamo Bay is not operating, but Cuban radars are!
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

[MiamiensisWx]

My point is that its moving NNE not north.If this turns NNW after it emerges from the north coast of Cuba I'll eat crow.

Do you care to bet against the NHC, which does show a NNW movement tomorrow afternoon? I am usually wrong when I do. I am just saying...

Anyway, I would like to hear some mentioning of Haiti, which has seen a full 24 hours of training precipitation potentially exacerbating unsanitary conditions and causing flash floods. I fear to hear the final reports from that area.

[stephen23]

To me to this point it seems to be following the 12z Euro to a T.

[stephen23]

Boca. Look at the 12z Euro

[cycloneye]

CrazyC83, nothing yet about a TC update nor Special Advisory. They may be waiting for the second pass?

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83, nothing yet about a TC update nor Special Advisory. They may be waiting for the second pass?

It seems that such is the case. No basis to upgrade before the advisory. I wish they would do 2-hourly advisories with ANY clear radar eye, not just a clear eye on NWS radar.

[boca]

I'll watch and wait and No I don't want to bet against the NHC.

[HurrMark]

An interesting snippet from NWS Taunton (Boston), which has been rather conservative with 'Sandy':

WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE...A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL
MODEL SOLNS FORECAST HURRICANE SANDY LIFTING NORTHWARD...BECOMING
POST-TROPICAL /REMAINING WARM-CORED/ AS IT LOOPS WEST TOWARDS THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LVL JET /SOMEWHERE
IN PROXIMITY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION/ PARENT WITH THE
NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH ACROSS THE GRT LAKES RGN.

BUT AM HESITANT TO BUY INTO THE MAJORITY OF SOLNS...THE STORM IS
TAKING ON A HISTORICAL PRECEDENT COMPARED TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF
OTHER POST-TROPICAL SYSTEMS DURING THE AUTUMN MONTHS. WITH REGARDS
TO THE LITERARY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...THE POST-TROPICAL TRACK OF
SANDY IS SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS TO BENCHMARK TRACKS OF THE GREAT GALE OF
1878 AND HURRICANE HAZEL IN 1954 /THOUGH HAZEL DID EXHIBIT A SLIGHT
WESTWARD LEAN IT IS TRACK/.

IN ADDITION...THROUGH PERSONAL COMMUNICATION...MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN
KNOWN TO PREMATURELY PHASE SYSTEMS BEYOND 120 HRS /ESPECIALLY A
TROPICAL SYSTEM PHASING INTO A TROUGH/. SO LONG AS HURRICANE SANDY
MAINTAINS...THE LONGER IT MAY RESIST CROSS H5 HEIGHTS AND 1000-500
THICKNESSES...RESULTING IN A GREATER PROBABILITY OF A TRACK TO THE
RIGHT /ESPECIALLY IF IT TRACKS QUICKER AVOIDING THE TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION/. BUT AS SEEN IN MODEL SOLNS...SANDY SLOWS WITH A
BLOCKING PATTERN TO THE EAST...AND SHOULD IT TRANSITION POST-
TROPICAL...SANDY WOULD BE ALLOWED TO PHASE ACROSS H5 HEIGHTS WITH A
SUBSEQUENT LEFT HOOK.


ADDITIONAL COMMUNICATION HAS BROUGHT UP POINTS CONCERNING OVER-
ZEALOUS CYCLONE DEEPENING BY MODEL SOLNS...AS WELL AS HANDLING STORM
MERGERS POORLY. SHOULD A MERGER OCCUR...THE MORE DOMINANT WAVE
SHOULD USURP THE WEAKER WAVE AND PREVAIL.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track is at 80kts.

AL, 18, 2012102500, , BEST, 0, 187N, 764W, 80, 964, HU

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[boca]

Look at the floatethis is moving due north it was over Jamaica since it emerged off the coast its been moving NNE or 30 degrees.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[cpdaman]

Look at the floatethis is moving due north it was over Jamaica since it emerged off the coast its been moving NNE or 30 degrees.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

yes it looks NNE since leaving jamaica (i'd say 20 deg) , and 40 degrees is NE

[cycloneye]

Look at the floatethis is moving due north it was over Jamaica since it emerged off the coast its been moving NNE or 30 degrees.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

yes it looks NNE since leaving jamaica (i'd say 20 deg) , and 40 degrees is NE

The second pass by recon will tell us the real movement.