ATL: TONY - Models

[lester]

Model discussions about 90L go here.

[cycloneye]

First plots.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 201448
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1448 UTC SAT OCT 20 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20121020 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        121020  1200   121021  0000   121021  1200   121022  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.8N  46.8W   20.3N  48.1W   20.6N  49.3W   21.1N  50.6W
BAMD    19.8N  46.8W   21.5N  47.4W   22.4N  48.2W   22.9N  49.7W
BAMM    19.8N  46.8W   21.0N  47.7W   21.7N  48.6W   22.3N  50.0W
LBAR    19.8N  46.8W   20.9N  47.2W   21.6N  47.4W   22.1N  47.3W
SHIP        30KTS          34KTS          38KTS          44KTS
DSHP        30KTS          34KTS          38KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        121022  1200   121023  1200   121024  1200   121025  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.0N  52.1W   24.2N  54.4W   25.5N  55.8W   26.2N  56.9W
BAMD    23.6N  51.5W   25.6N  52.1W   28.8N  47.9W   33.1N  37.4W
BAMM    23.2N  51.7W   25.5N  53.4W   27.4N  52.2W   29.8N  46.1W
LBAR    22.9N  47.2W   25.2N  46.2W   29.0N  42.1W   32.2N  31.6W
SHIP        51KTS          58KTS          57KTS          50KTS
DSHP        51KTS          58KTS          57KTS          50KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.8N LONCUR =  46.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  19.3N LONM12 =  45.6W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  18.5N LONM24 =  43.8W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC SUN OCT 21 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20121021 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        121021  0000   121021  1200   121022  0000   121022  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.1N  47.9W   20.4N  49.0W   21.0N  50.4W   21.9N  51.9W
BAMD    20.1N  47.9W   21.3N  48.6W   22.0N  49.8W   22.6N  51.5W
BAMM    20.1N  47.9W   21.0N  48.7W   21.7N  50.0W   22.6N  51.6W
LBAR    20.1N  47.9W   20.8N  48.3W   21.4N  48.8W   22.1N  49.4W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          36KTS          42KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          36KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        121023  0000   121024  0000   121025  0000   121026  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.0N  53.2W   25.1N  55.2W   26.3N  56.6W   27.7N  57.7W
BAMD    23.4N  52.6W   25.5N  51.3W   28.6N  44.6W   32.7N  33.1W
BAMM    23.7N  52.9W   25.9N  53.7W   28.0N  50.9W   30.4N  42.0W
LBAR    23.2N  49.4W   27.1N  47.9W   31.6N  41.2W   35.6N  29.4W
SHIP        48KTS          53KTS          47KTS          40KTS
DSHP        48KTS          53KTS          47KTS          40KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  20.1N LONCUR =  47.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  19.8N LONM12 =  46.8W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  19.3N LONM24 =  45.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[WilmingtonSandbar]

I know all of the focus is on Sandy right now, but does anyone have an opinion on the late model runs that have this recurving after it passes the Azores and heading back across the pond towards the US?

[HurrMark]

I know all of the focus is on Sandy right now, but does anyone have an opinion on the late model runs that have this recurving after it passes the Azores and heading back across the pond towards the US?

Likelihood of that is slim to none...where did you see that?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I know all of the focus is on Sandy right now, but does anyone have an opinion on the late model runs that have this recurving after it passes the Azores and heading back across the pond towards the US?

Likelihood of that is slim to none...where did you see that?

I was just looking at the computer model hurricane forecast page for Tony on Wunderground. It seemed like half of the models had a recurve in its future.

[HurrMark]

The only one I see is the GFS, which is more or less a ghost of a low...it could have an impact on keeping 'Sandy' from getting too far east.