ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[bahamaswx]

So do they go with 90 or 95mph at 11? With dvorak estimates so high and pressure so low I'd assume they'd err on the side of guessing that recon didn't sample the strongest winds...

[cycloneye]

Recons second pass confirms a NNE wobble.

[HurrMark]

delete

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: No. More. I've just been measuring. 900 miles across and over 1,000 miles from north to south. Extremely large hurricane.

That would be the total circulation your talking about correct. The wind field and rain would only be several hundred miles or so, or am I way off here.

Yes, absolutely. It's what we call the circulation envelope. But the wind and rain field within that envelope will expand further as it becomes a hybrid subtropical storm while passing Florida.

[lester]

So do they go with 90 or 95mph at 11? With dvorak estimates so high and pressure so low I'd assume they'd err on the side of guessing that recon didn't sample the strongest winds...

there can't be 95 mph, either 90 or 100 mph

[deltadog03]

Yes, it does look like a nice NNE wobble, but I think that the center/eye is about to rotate back more NNW around the ball hell...ie convection

[NDG]

Looks like Sandy is heading towards the fairly large city of Santiago de Cuba, with many living in the higher hills in the outskirts of the City. I am afraid that many of the old buildings could collapse in that city.

[NDG]

GTMO Naval Station now reporting winds gusting to 57 mph.


Conditions at: MUGM observed 25 October 2012 01:56 UTC
Temperature: 25.6°C (78°F)
Dewpoint: 22.8°C (73°F) [RH = 85%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.43 inches Hg (996.7 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 996.5 mb]
Winds: from the ESE (110 degrees) at 47 MPH (41 knots; 21.3 m/s)
gusting to 57 MPH (50 knots; 26.0 m/s)
Visibility: 1.99 miles (3.20 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 900 feet AGL
broken clouds at 1500 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 6000 feet AGL
Present Weather: RA (rain)

[CrazyC83]

I would go with 85 kt from the advisory given the earlier data.

[Bocadude85]

Yes, it does look like a nice NNE wobble, but I think that the center/eye is about to rotate back more NNW around the ball hell...ie convection

I agree. You can already see Sandy wobbling back to the NNW

[stephen23]

Delta Dog. Seems to pulled back under convection on this last run

[Miami Storm Tracker]

:uarrow: No. More. I've just been measuring. 900 miles across and over 1,000 miles from north to south. Extremely large hurricane.

That would be the total circulation your talking about correct. The wind field and rain would only be several hundred miles or so, or am I way off here.

Yes, absolutely. It's what we call the circulation envelope. But the wind and rain field within that envelope will expand further as it becomes a hybrid subtropical storm while passing Florida.

As always thanks for the lesson and information.

[gatorcane]

Wow this is a large tropical system, largest I have seen in the Atlantic basin in a long time.

[cycloneye]

Wow this is a large tropical system, largest I have seen in the Atlantic basin in a long time.

You think of Floyd being large but I agree with you about Sandy that is bigger than what Floyd was at this point.

[Evil Jeremy]

Pressure down to 954.6mb as of latest recon report..... Amazing....

[NDG]

Recon reports yet a couple of more mb pressure drop, SFMR estimated surface winds of 81 knots.

[boca]

Do you think its large due to the fact its the end of October and not in August.

[HurrMark]

I think 'Gordon' got down to 965 at its peak...so 'Sandy' took the lead. The question is what the winds are...and like many systems this year, the pressure is not corresponding to the wind...although I bet the large size of the storm has something to do with it (large radius requires lower pressure to get a tighter pressure gradient).

[CrazyC83]

What should the advisory intensity be considering all this data?

[cycloneye]

What should the advisory intensity be considering all this data?

80-85kts.