ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[HurrMark]

Do you think its large due to the fact its the end of October and not in August.

Nope...'Marco' was an OCT storm from a few years ago and it was one of the smallest storms in history. And 'Irene' was pretty darn huge...

[ozonepete]

Do you think its large due to the fact its the end of October and not in August.

No. Remember Katrina in late August? Very low shear over a large area is a big contributor. When a very large anticyclone builds over the circulation it allows for outflow at the top of the TC to grow very large in areal coverage and that encourages a larger inflow field at the bottom, and so on and so on...

[Weatherguy173]

Wow this is a large tropical system, largest I have seen in the Atlantic basin in a long time.

You think of Floyd being large but I agree with you about Sandy that is bigger than what Floyd was at this point.

wow, and irene was quite large also...

[boca]

Do you think its large due to the fact its the end of October and not in August.

No. Remember Katrina in late August? Very low shear over a large area is a big contributor. When a very large anticyclone builds over the circulation it allows for outflow at the top of the TC to grow very large in areal coverage and that encourages a larger inflow field at the bottom, and so on and so on...

Thankyou ozonepete, Im always learning

[NDG]

102 knots at flight level now!

[galaxy401]

I think 'Gordon' got down to 965 at its peak...so 'Sandy' took the lead. The question is what the winds are...and like many systems this year, the pressure is not corresponding to the wind...although I bet the large size of the storm has something to do with it (large radius requires lower pressure to get a tighter pressure gradient).

The strongest storm this season is Michael with 964. Just one below Gordon.

[Weatherguy173]

this storm is going to grow in size, strength a little i guess, but explode in size

[lester]

102 knots at flight level now!

024200 1904N 07601W 6963 02877 9691 +133 +100 216100 101 075 001 03
024230 1903N 07600W 6966 02887 9712 +129 +101 216100 100 071 001 00
024300 1902N 07559W 6970 02898 9736 +120 +094 216098 100 071 003 00

[Evil Jeremy]

024230 1903N 07600W 6966 02887 9712 +129 +101 216100 100 071 001 00
024300 1902N 07559W 6970 02898 9736 +120 +094 216098 100 071 003 00
024330 1901N 07558W 6967 02916 9760 +112 +090 216098 099 069 002 00
024400 1900N 07557W 6969 02927 9770 +116 +083 219097 098 067 003 00
024430 1859N 07556W 6964 02941 9791 +109 +091 222098 098 067 001 00
024500 1858N 07554W 6966 02955 9808 +104 +098 223101 102 065 003 00
024530 1857N 07553W 6967 02958 9825 +090 +090 222097 100 064 007 01

102kt flight level.

[CrazyC83]

102 at flight level = about 92 at the surface.

[HurrMark]

I think 'Gordon' got down to 965 at its peak...so 'Sandy' took the lead. The question is what the winds are...and like many systems this year, the pressure is not corresponding to the wind...although I bet the large size of the storm has something to do with it (large radius requires lower pressure to get a tighter pressure gradient).

The strongest storm this season is Michael with 964. Just one below Gordon.

You're right...in the middle of the only 12 hours during this entire season where we had a major hurricane.

[cycloneye]

More wows!!

024200 1904N 07601W 6963 02877 9691 +133 +100 216100 101 075 001 03
024230 1903N 07600W 6966 02887 9712 +129 +101 216100 100 071 001 00
024300 1902N 07559W 6970 02898 9736 +120 +094 216098 100 071 003 00

[brunota2003]

I'd bet that where the deeper convection has wrapped into the SE Quad, the winds there are higher, maybe up to 105 or 110 at flight level.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 OCT 2012 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 19:09:16 N Lon : 76:09:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 939.7mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -46.6C Cloud Region Temp : -75.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.5 degrees

****************************************************

[NDG]

New VDM now shows the 954mb found.



000
URNT12 KNHC 250250
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 25/02:35:30Z
B. 19 deg 13 min N
076 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2726 m
D. 81 kt
E. 226 deg 15 nm
F. 315 deg 92 kt
G. 226 deg 13 nm
H. EXTRAP 954 mb
I. 10 C / 3044 m
J. 17 C / 3046 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C22
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF302 0518A SANDY OB 14
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 102 KT SE QUAD 02:45:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
;

[CrazyC83]

If the water is shallow there, the SFMR might be very unreliable.

[artist]

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 102 KT SE QUAD 02:45:00Z
VDM

[mcheer23]

This is a very shocking storm..

[HurrMark]

I remember we were all amazed when 'Isaac' was in the high-960s and only a Cat One...imagine if this is still a One.

[NDG]

If the water is shallow there, the SFMR might be very unreliable.

Actually waters between Jamaica and eastern Cuba are very deep, several thousand feet deep.