ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[mcheer23]

Waiting on the advisory..

[Evil Jeremy]

And the advisory is officially late lol

[Weatherguy173]

any second now for the 11 PM report

[cycloneye]

No 11 PM advisory means a special advisory comming.

[bahamaswx]

I remember we were all amazed when 'Isaac' was in the high-960s and only a Cat One...imagine if this is still a One.

Not a chance. 102kt FL supports 100-105mph surface winds.

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisory is likely getting a last second rewrite.

[CrazyC83]

They were likely waiting for the VDM and they are probably typing it now. 85 kt would be my best guess at this point, but a case could be made for 90 kt if they ignore the SFMR.

[deltadog03]

Its out now...

[Evil Jeremy]

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...SOUTHEASTERN
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...
AND MAYAGUANA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 70SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

[Weatherguy173]

90 MPH, and what a low pressure at 954 for 90 MPH

[brunota2003]

Recon heading for the SE Quad

[Evil Jeremy]

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED
700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 102 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE
ESTIMATES OF 75-80 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF THESE DATA...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

[cycloneye]

[mcheer23]

Pressure of a Cat 3...wind speed of a Cat 1

[galaxy401]

Many storms this season had rather low pressures compared to their wind speeds. I do think this is a 2 though. Wait and see the SE part though.

[Weatherguy173]

Pressure of a Cat 3...wind speed of a Cat 1

irene was like that at a Cat 2, with a pressure of 942

[sponger]

Wow! What a great looking storm. I would be prepping tomorrow from NC North for at least power outages. We could have 45 mph gusts here in North Florida if the Euro confirms. Going to be a crazy weekend!

[cycloneye]

The important lines of the 11 PM discussion.

THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST SANDY TO MOVE AROUND AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
LOW...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR OR SO
FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. FROM 48-96 HR...A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
STEER THE MERGED SYSTEM GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE
BECOMES DIVERGENT AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL/NOGAPS TURNING
THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE GFS/HWRF SHOWING A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS IS IN PART
DUE TO A LARGE CHANGE IN THE GFS FORECAST AFTER 72 HR. THUS...THE
NEW FORECAST WILL SHIFTED ONLY A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THIS
TIME...AND IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. HOWEVER...
IT REMAINS EAST OF THE ECMWF/NOGAPS/GFDL MODELS.

[HurrMark]

Pressure of a Cat 3...wind speed of a Cat 1

irene was like that at a Cat 2, with a pressure of 942

It was a high 2 at that time though...and just weakened from a 3.

But this is amazing...still a One and a pressure that low. I would be shocked if the winds don't mix to the surface with a pressure that low.

[Macrocane]

I don't see a special advisory coming soon but possibly an Update Statement saying it is a cat 2 just before landfall...unless RECON finds 100 kt SFMR winds that would deserve a special.