ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#821 Postby ROCK » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:24 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Weatherguy173 wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:Pressure of a Cat 3...wind speed of a Cat 1


irene was like that at a Cat 2, with a pressure of 942


Ike was a Category 2 with 100 mph winds and central pressure of 944 millibars.




true, but that was due to the Cuba interaction and the double eyewall maxim it could get rid of until it closed in on the coast.
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#822 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:26 pm

With 117kts flight level winds and 91kts SFMR, this is safely a 100-105mph Category 2. And the pressure is 952. It just keeps dropping like a rock.
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#823 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:26 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Latest data suggests at least 95 kt for an intensity. TCU or Special around 1 am?

I know 90% of 117 is 105. SFMR says 91 though. Dang close to being a major, it would seem. One more pass might do it, if the winds are still catching up.
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Re: Re:

#824 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:29 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Latest data suggests at least 95 kt for an intensity. TCU or Special around 1 am?

I know 90% of 117 is 105. SFMR says 91 though. Dang close to being a major, it would seem. One more pass might do it, if the winds are still catching up.


Perhaps, or if the eye clears out in the last couple hours, it might get there by satellite estimates alone. Still, 110 mph winds - into a populated area (eyewall will hit Santiago de Cuba - population 500,000) - are extremely dangerous.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#825 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:30 pm

They justified 90mph @ 11pm due to low SFMR readings. Lowest they could go now is 90kt = 105mph. A blend of this with the FL winds makes this 110mph imo.
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Re:

#826 Postby ROCK » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:32 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:With 117kts flight level winds and 91kts SFMR, this is safely a 100-105mph Category 2. And the pressure is 952. It just keeps dropping like a rock.



someone mention my name? :D I agree with a Cat 2.....and it might make 3 if it keeps up like this IMO....
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#827 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:34 pm

I mentioned this before, but the fact that it is at 76.2 or 76.3 means it is going to go over the flattest part of eastern Cuba...this means that it could stay rather intact for the Bahamas.
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Re: Re:

#828 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:34 pm

ROCK wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:With 117kts flight level winds and 91kts SFMR, this is safely a 100-105mph Category 2. And the pressure is 952. It just keeps dropping like a rock.



someone mention my name? :D I agree with a Cat 2.....and it might make 3 if it keeps up like this IMO....


She's almost out of time! Don't think recon has time to make another pass anyway do they?

Also note that those readings are from the NE quad, where previously all the strongest readings have been found in the SE quad!
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#829 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:43 pm

000
WTNT63 KNHC 250442
TCUAT3

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1230 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS SOUTHWEST OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 1230 AM EDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 76.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE HURRICANE SANDY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED...AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 110 MPH...175 KM/H. THIS
MAKE SANDY A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...
AND SANDY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

There it is!
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#830 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:44 pm

My friends, this is not what a category one hurricane looks like:

Image

To my eye, that is arguably a major hurricane.

EDIT: I just saw they issued a special advisory. It is almost a major hurricane :lol:
Last edited by SouthDadeFish on Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#831 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:44 pm

Looks like they're going to sample the strongest quad after all.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#832 Postby Weatherguy173 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:45 pm

wholly crap this intensified fast! :eek:
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#833 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:45 pm

Why did they raise the central pressure to 957? I thought the previous pass revealed 951-52?
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#834 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:46 pm

Check out SSD ADT:

2012OCT25 041500 6.2 944.2/ +1.4 /119.8 6.2 6.6 7.0 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF -4.96 -75.32 EYE -99 IR 19.66 75.99 COMBO

Holy crap! Raw T at 7.0!!!!
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#835 Postby Macrocane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:46 pm

There it is the Update, a Special advisory could be issued in one hour or so maybe with something like "Sandy makes landfall in Cuba as a major hurricane" of course this is a personal opinion based on what I'm seeing in satellite images and Recon data, it's not the official NHC forecast.
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#836 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:46 pm

Will the last pass find a major? Need 96 kt SFMR to support such.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#837 Postby WxEnthus » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:47 pm

Wow, just wow about the RI.

I think I'm equally as surprised at the low number of posts. If this was July or August there would be 200+ pages of posts by now, at least. Guess everyone gave up on wobble watching...

Sandy continues to surprise me. Amazing satellite presentation.
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    Disclaimer: Posts herein are my amateur opinion only and should not be used for making important decisions. Defer to the NHC, NWS, and local authorities for official guidance.

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Re:

#838 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:49 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Will the last pass find a major? Need 96 kt SFMR to support such.


Would still be rounded down to 95kt. :P But I imagine 95kt SFMR would support 100kt when blended with these FL winds.
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#839 Postby Buck » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:50 pm

Despite the threat Sandy poses, I'd probably give her the title of best looking storm of the season. I need to go to bed but if recon is staying out to sample SE quad, I might have to stay up... I'll be surprised if the landfall statement doesn't have Sandy as a major.
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Re:

#840 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:50 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Check out SSD ADT:

2012OCT25 041500 6.2 944.2/ +1.4 /119.8 6.2 6.6 7.0 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF -4.96 -75.32 EYE -99 IR 19.66 75.99 COMBO

Holy crap! Raw T at 7.0!!!!

Well, guess this is a learning opportunity that sat estimates aren't always accurate. Now, if it had several more hours over water? Maybe.
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