ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like Sandy is going to hit the water running.

CAPE at about 2000.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

Still has an eye - WISHE will kick in quickly.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 250155.jpg

Hi GCANE. What is WISHE?

Morning Cycloneye:

Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange.

A fancy way of saying when the converging winds pick up the heat off the ocean.

[NDG]

I think that at the end when they reanalyze Sandy, they are going to upgrade Sandy into a Major Hurricane as it made landfall, IMO.
An official Cuban weather station on the northern coast of Island, Punta Lucrecia, at 5 AM reported substained winds of 95 mph with gusts to 115 mph, 3 1/2 hours after making landfall and going over Mountainous terrain.
Lets see if Cuban TV later today starts showing some of the damage in Santiago de Cuba, which could be extensive, especially in the higher elevated portions of the City.

Not just at elevation...Santiago de Cuba sits at the head of a fairly narrow bay(think Narragansett Bay)...with the landfall West of the bay entrance and 7 feet of surge driving up a narrowing bay which should add 2 feet to the surge on top of a spring tide of two feet give or take...thats an 11' tidal bore approaching the waterfront at about 5 kts...I doubt they had time to break out the boogie boards:(

I also think that because the Bay is surrounded by coastal Hills/Mountains, the winds funneled into the City through the Bay creating even higher winds, IMO.

[cycloneye]

A shield of rain is approaching South Florida.

http://oi50.tinypic.com/16ia6h5.jpg

[cycloneye]

Looks like Sandy is going to hit the water running.

CAPE at about 2000.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

Still has an eye - WISHE will kick in quickly.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 250155.jpg

Hi GCANE. What is WISHE?

Morning Cycloneye:

Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange.

A fancy way of saying when the converging winds pick up the heat off the ocean.

Another member answered the question but anyway thanks for confirming what it is.

[WeatherGuesser]

That map at the top of these pages is packing a nasty left hook out near Day 5.

Am I seeing that the winds only dropped about 5-10 MPH over Cuba?

[bahamaswx]

That map at the top of these pages is packing a nasty left hook out near Day 5.

Am I seeing that the winds only dropped about 5-10 MPH over Cuba?

Just an estimate. Recon will tell us the true extent of the damage in about 10 minutes.

[Frank2]

Per the IR loop, Sandy is experincing some southwesterly shear and it's motion over the past few hours is to the right of the NHC forecast track (it appears to be on a 030 heading) - let's hope that continues...

[Aric Dunn]

moment she hit water almost convection re-firing the core is still intact. upper level outflow is well established should see this re strengthen quickly before the shear hits it later. Also expect to start seeing a turn to the nnw and nw today as the ridge build back in.

[Frank2]

Looks like the shear is beginning already...

[HurrMark]

Well, its speed did catch up with the pressure...good thing it made landfall when it did since if it had six more hours, it could have been a Four. Nevertheless, it took the "easiest" path through eastern Cuba....right along the 76W line. Looks like it is off Cuba now...still heading east of due north. Looks more ragged the last couple of images...my guess is that it is down to 85-90...

[HurrMark]

Per the IR loop, Sandy is experincing some southwesterly shear and it's motion over the past few hours is to the right of the NHC forecast track (it appears to be on a 030 heading) - let's hope that continues...

I do find that interesting...it has been east of track for the last day or so...yet the models haven't really wavered.

[Aric Dunn]

TS force winds already being experienced in SE florida when the squalls come through. 43mph gust sustained a 38

[Frank2]

I do find that interesting...it has been east of track for the last day or so...yet the models haven't really wavered.

I can't recall which one, but two or three days ago one model for several runs was showing a NNE then ENE motion out to sea once it passed north of Cuba - so far that model has been right on track...

[tolakram]

Per the IR loop, Sandy is experincing some southwesterly shear and it's motion over the past few hours is to the right of the NHC forecast track (it appears to be on a 030 heading) - let's hope that continues...

I do find that interesting...it has been east of track for the last day or so...yet the models haven't really wavered.

Latest GFS run shows N/NE movement for a little while longer before a bend to the N and NW and then heads NW between hours 15 and 48.

[vegastar]

115230 2127N 07514W 6985 02887 9745 +122 +097 225114 126 082 004 00

126kts FL!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF CUBA AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM S OF GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NE OF HOLGUIN CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES

[tolakram]

Latest. Rapid scan mode now available.



live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[wxman57]

Center is a degree or more east of yesterday's forecast position (at 75.5W). This would keep TS winds mostly east of FL. Just a light brushing of wind 35-40 mph with higher gusts along the beaches over the next 24-36 hrs. Final landfall could be south of NY City, can't be too confident yet. Would be much larger than Irene, packing a much larger surge and stronger wind. Major flooding potential.

[TheEuropean]

plane found this:

963.7 mb, 126 kts at flight level, 85 kts surface

[MiamiensisWx]

Based upon the latest GFS ensembles, the ridge over the next 24 hours does not look strong enough to turn Sandy west of due north...suggesting (as per the wind data on the operational GFS) that E FL may see winds below TS intensity, near 25 kt / 30 mph to 30 kt / 35 mph. The TS Warnings may need to be dropped later today, as I do not see anything that would cause such a large and intense system to bend as far west as on the ECMWF--and even that model has shifted a bit farther from FL at the closest approach, now showing ~998 mb rather than ~990 mb (unlike in previous runs yesterday) in SE FL. Also, the wind field looks to be more compact than originally expected as it bypasses FL, largely due to the more intense, tighter inner core. FL dodges another bullet in my view.

Now, on the other hand, Long Island, eastern Exuma, and Eleuthera will be hammered.