ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

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bahamaswx
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#981 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:17 am

She's definitely not vertically stacked anymore.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#982 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:23 am

AdamFirst wrote:When can we start seeing the baroclinic forcing?

CrazyC83 is right. It's already starting. See how Sandy is beginning to push into the strong 1021 mb high to the north. That high is merging with a very strong 1028 mb high to the northeast . That is making the pressure gradient tighter (isobars are packing tighter together over Florida) and it will get worse because that high is not going to budge much at all.

Image
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#983 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:26 am

Local sports radio personalities are ranting about school closures in South Florida

Shows the amount of worry and urgency here
A laugh and a shrug
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#984 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:27 am

Could Sandy be similar to Gordon of 1994 in terms of effects in Florida as it may be more subtropical in it's closest approach?
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Re:

#985 Postby x-y-no » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:27 am

bahamaswx wrote:She's definitely not vertically stacked anymore.


I don't see any sign of that from surface to 700mb at least - the flight level wind minimum from the HDOBs coincides perfectly with the surface center fix in the latest VDM.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#986 Postby crimi481 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:32 am

For us weather Dummies (I had to look it up)

Baroclinic Forcing - to become an extratropical cyclone, or become absorbed by the large frontal system
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#987 Postby nativefloridian » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:36 am

Thanks for the clarification :)
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#988 Postby jhpigott » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:38 am

ozonepete wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:When can we start seeing the baroclinic forcing?

CrazyC83 is right. It's already starting. See how Sandy is beginning to push into the strong 1021 mb high to the north. That high is merging with a very strong 1028 mb high to the northeast . That is making the pressure gradient tighter (isobars are packing tighter together over Florida) and it will get worse because that high is not going to budge much at all.

Image


So am I correct in understanding we may here along the SE coast of Florida see the winds pick up, but it will be more associated with baroclinic forcing rather than from Sandy's wind field?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#989 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:40 am

Overcast here on the edge of Sandy's outflow. Light wind. Cool.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#990 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:40 am

jhpigott wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:When can we start seeing the baroclinic forcing?

CrazyC83 is right. It's already starting. See how Sandy is beginning to push into the strong 1021 mb high to the north. That high is merging with a very strong 1028 mb high to the northeast . That is making the pressure gradient tighter (isobars are packing tighter together over Florida) and it will get worse because that high is not going to budge much at all.

Image


So am I correct in understanding we may here along the SE coast of Florida see the winds pick up, but it will be more associated with baroclinic forcing rather than from Sandy's wind field?


That is correct. There is very little wind at all in the NW side of the storm (way less than TS force), the isobars will be the guiding force.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#991 Postby crimi481 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:42 am

Q. As Sandy continues to intensify and feels the H.P Ridge to her north,
would a stronger Storm tend to steer more towards N.W (W.N.W) - than a weaker Storm. (or the opposite?)
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#992 Postby Frank2 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:42 am

Tight isobars = tylenol headache for me (lol)...

P.S. Hoping that that is only the case within a few degrees of the system - sometimes that does happen, as I recall but as posted the highs to the northeast are pretty strong...
Last edited by Frank2 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#993 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:43 am

For those who say that TS conditions are not likely ( for some reason) many reports coming of near sustained TS winds and gusting to 50mph and she is quite a good distance away. when the Nnw turn things will likely get worse. far SE florida may be spared but farther up the coast where she will make her closest approach may see higher winds than 50.
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Re:

#994 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:44 am

Aric Dunn wrote:For those who say that TS conditions are not likely ( for some reason) many reports coming of near sustained TS winds and gusting to 50mph and she is quite a good distance away. when the Nnw turn things will likely get worse. far SE florida may be spared but farther up the coast where she will make her closest approach may see higher winds than 50.


Yes, that is from the pressure gradient for the most part and not convection, another sign of beginning the transition.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#995 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:45 am

The eye was just closing over from land interaction when it emerged. We'll see how quickly it recovers.


Sandy went right over the highest peak in Jamaica, Blue Mountain, and never flinched.


Euro says Jet will negative tilt near the Northeast.
Last edited by Sanibel on Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#996 Postby Frank2 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:46 am

South Florida is often a windy region mostly due to pressure gradient winds (a/k/a tradewinds), especially in the spring...
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#997 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:48 am

11 AM advisory forecast track. Look at that left hook at the end.

Image
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Re: Re:

#998 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:49 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:For those who say that TS conditions are not likely ( for some reason) many reports coming of near sustained TS winds and gusting to 50mph and she is quite a good distance away. when the Nnw turn things will likely get worse. far SE florida may be spared but farther up the coast where she will make her closest approach may see higher winds than 50.


Yes, that is from the pressure gradient for the most part and not convection, another sign of beginning the transition.


none the less TS warnings were quite needed.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#999 Postby Frank2 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:50 am

The 11 a.m. package is now available...

P.S. It's already nearing 23N - only 3 degrees from our latitude, and perhaps will already be north of our latitude by sunset - well ahead of the thinking 36 hours ago...

P.P.S. Just my guess, but that NYC landfall will never happen - just too unlikely at this time of year...

Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1000 Postby Bizzles » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:52 am

cycloneye wrote:11 AM advisory forecast track. Look at that left hook at the end.

http://oi46.tinypic.com/2rmw8ih.jpg


Aimed right at my house :eek:

Two TS Events in two years? Who moved NJ down to the GoM?
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