#60 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2012 3:15 pm
Latest discussion of Nor'easter from the NJ NWS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THE REST OF
THIS WEEKEND AND SETTLE TO OUR NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
NOR`EASTER WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING BY CAPE COD ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DON`T FORGET TO `FALL BACK` AND TURN YOUR CLOCKS BACK AN HOUR
TONIGHT AS DAYLIGHT SAVINGS COMES TO AN END.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHTEN UP AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEY MAY LIGHTEN UP ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS
ALLOWING FROST DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. IF THE WINDS REMAIN HIGHER FOR
A LONGER PERIOD OVERNIGHT, THEN FROST MAY NOT FORM AT ALL.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN RESPECT TO FROST AND WE ONLY MAKE
MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
NOT YET BEEN DECLARED OVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAINS OF NW NEW JERSEY AND THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH SO AS TODAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT AND BE MOSTLY SUNNY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE TO HEAT
UP A BIT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECOVERY RESCUE OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A HAMPERING IF
NOT RETROGRADING OF RESTORATION EFFORTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A LIKELY NOR`EASTER MOVES UP THE COAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (ESP
EAST) AS WELL AS MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING APPEAR POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME SNOW INLAND SNOW WOULD NOT BE A SHOCKER.
PLEASE REFER TO OUR BRIEFING PACKAGE FOR MORE DETAILS. OUR WEB
SITE LINK REMAINS DEGRADED AND THE SUMMARY STATEMENT OF THE
BRIEFING PAGE CAN BE SEEN ON OUR FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.
WE WISH IT WAS DIFFERENT ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DEVASTATION
FROM SANDY, BUT THE DOUBLE TELECONNECTION PATTERN CHANGE SWITCH
OF THE NAO AND PNA SUPPORTS THE TRENDING MORE VIGOROUS NOR`EASTER
SOLUTION WE ARE NOW SEEING WITH ALL OF THE MODELS.
THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED EASTWARD FROM YESTERDAY AND THE GFS HAS
FINALLY SETTLED ON A MORE WESTWARD PLACEMENT THAT IT STARTED WITH
THE 18Z RUN YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS ARE
EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN, A CHARACTERISTIC WE ARE GLEANING OFF OF
ALL OF THE OTHER MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS. AT THIS JUNCTURE THIS IS A
NATURAL (LATER PHASING. MORE PROGRESSIVE) PLACEMENT OF LOWER
RESOLUTION MEMBERS. THE ECMWF PHASES SOONER AND THUS PROLONGS THE
ONSHORE FLOW LONGER AS THE LOW STALLS/SLOWS AT A LOWER LATITUDE. FOR
THE OUTSTANDING JOB THAT THE ECMWF DID WITH SANDY IN DAYS 3-7, THERE
WAS A LEFT OF TRACK BIAS ON SOME OF THE RUNS WITH SANDY. GIVEN WE
ARE STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY, WE HAVE GONE WITH THE MOST ACCURATE TRACK
COMBO FOR LAST WINTER (A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE)
LEADING INTO THE NOR`EASTER CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF OUR CWA AWAY FROM URBAN
CENTERS AND THE COAST. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CAVEATS WITH THE MIN TEMPS, THE APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD GENERATE SOME CLOUDS. THE GRADIENT ALSO DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA. COUPLED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE, SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNIER MONDAY. AIR MASS
THOUGH IS QUITE CHILLY AND EVEN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN,
WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50F.
IF SUNDAY NIGHT DOES NOT END THE GROWING SEASON, MONDAY NIGHT WOULD.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS OUR CWA AND WITH RIDGING ALOFT,
THICKER CIRRUS SHOULD NOT ARRIVE IN TIME. MIN TEMPS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
TO CONTINUITY AND A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE. MANY SUBFREEZING LOWS.
CLOUDS SHOULD BE INCREASING AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND OUR NOR`EASTER STARTS FORMING ALONG THE GULF COAST. WE
WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS BECAUSE OF THE ARRIVAL OF
THE CLOUDS.
IN GENERAL WE DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
AND WINDS FOR THE APPROACHING NOR`EASTER. THE GFS IS FASTER AND
COLDER THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA
WHICH IS TIED TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AT THE FRONT END AND POSSIBLY
SOME DYNAMICAL COOLING DURING THE EVENT. THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS THOUGH
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TIDAL
FLOODING AND WIND ADVISORY GUST LEVELS EXIST. EVEN IF ADVISORY LEVELS
ARE NOT MET ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE WINDY AND ANY COMPROMISED STRUCTURES,
TREES OR TREE LIMBS MIGHT BE DAMAGED FURTHER OR FALL.
AFTER THE NOR`EASTER PASSES, AT LEAST A BRIEF CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THURSDAY COULD BE WINDY WITH LEFTOVER
PRECIPITATION IF THE SLOWER STALLING ECMWF VERIFIES. BEYOND THAT
THERE IS CONSENSUS FOR DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILDER WEATHER ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
BEYOND OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST, THE LATEST NAEFS AND GEFS IS
SHOWING MILDER WEATHER FOR THE ENSUING WEEK. WITH THE OUTLOOK NAO GOING
POSITIVE AND THE PNA GOING NEGATIVE, THIS WOULD ALSO SHIFT THE STORM
TRACK BACK INTO CANADA. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS WILL BE A PATTERN
RELOAD OR LONGER CHANGE IN STORE.
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