Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Moisture will increase in the next few days in PR as the flow changes from the south bringing deep moisture.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST THU OCT 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
IT WILL BUILD AND EXTEND NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS....BEFORE
GRADUALLY ERODING BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THE LOW LEVELS THE
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND NOW
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE SANDY...AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE WIND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY AS HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TODAY. HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUED TO MOVE
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF CUBA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARDS
THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTH NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IN
DOING SO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM SANDY BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVEL ONLY SHALLOW FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS NOTED MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION AT THIS TIME...AS A FAIRLY DECENT SUBSIDENT CAP REMAINED IN
PLACE. HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
OCCURRING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MONA PASSAGE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SUBSIDENCE CAP...TO LIMIT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESENT
WIND FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY STEER ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BE OF SHORT DURATION ACROSS PUERTO RICO. OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES TODAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE SCENARIO IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AND OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...AND
MOIST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIFTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AS SANDY CONTINUES NORTHWARDS. IN ADDITION...
THE ERODING MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THE
SUBSIDENCE CAP WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MUCH OF WHICH WILL BE DUE TO HURRICANE
SANDY LIFTING NORTHWARDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THAT SAID DECIDED
TO CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY WET PATTERN IN THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR
THE LONG TERM WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHORT TERM...AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER
24 HOURS OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANDY WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TISX AND TJPS THROUGH ABOUT 25/15Z.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AN INCREASE ON
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO FROM
25/18Z THROUGH 25/22Z...AFFECTING THE TJSJ AND TJBQ TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 86 79 / 10 20 30 20
STT 88 79 87 80 / 10 40 40 40

[Gustywind]

I would like to see reports from Haiti as it has been raing a lot there. Let's see if we can find news from there.

Here is a first report.


Haiti - Environment: Sandy, Haiti in red, early impacts
2012-10-25 06: 46: 19
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... pacts.html

After touching land on the Jamaica then Cuba that night, Sandy continues its road towards North, at 30 km/h, it currently stands at 6 am, 13.0 degrees north latitude and 75.8 degrees West longitude is 96 km to the Northwest of Santiago de Cuba, 295 km to the Northwest of Jean Rabel, 300 km to the South of the Bahamas. Maximum winds at 165 km/h with gusts well above. Storm winds 220 km from the Center.

Although Sandy away gradually from Haiti, the country at the level of vigilance red on all its departments continues to receive rain and gusts of wind.

Early impacts
South strong rains and winds on all municipalities, hospital General of Cayes is flooded. On the night of 23 to 24 October, a woman in their 40s, drowned while attempting to cross a river in spate at the level of Camp-Perrin, also reported a loss of life to hillsides. The stretch of road between Jérémie in les Cayes is cut.

Department Nippes River Duverger in flood (4th communal section of bottom of Negroes), the winds have ransacked the tents of the Baradères health centre, the CTU is in trouble and the flooded city, the Health Department of the South, PAHO, Handicap and solidarity support centre for the support of 39 patients. Increase in level of the Rivière aux Pins.

Southeast winds and sea agitated Department. Civil protection officers found a start to flood in Carrefour Marino.

Department of the Grand'Anse rains, moderate except in Beaumont or winds winds are strong, ice, Grand Anse, Dame-Marie and Voldrogue rivers are in spate. Jeremiah two houses took away by the waters, a dozen in Dame Marie as well as heads of livestock.

Northern Department, DPC informed that there is a beginning of flooding on board sea of lemonade, zone mouth, and intermittent rain on any of the Nord Department

Department of the West, 640 people in temporary shelter in Fonds-Verrettes. The River grey is in flood, causing a flood of Bigarathe and Butte Boyer.

It is also reported that the national road # 2: landslide a height of Morne St Georges, the stretch of road between great river of the North and Baron is clogged, the road to the South is partially open to traffic. The Adelaide rivers, big horse, Tibourik are in spate.

The Government is prepared The head of State, the Government and the civil protection declared mobilization to minimize collateral damage during the passage of Sandy off the coast of Haiti.

Alta Jean Baptiste, Director of the Haitian civil protection informs ".. .that the provisions were taken since Tuesday morning for evacuated patients from hospitals in the South, she informed that in certain areas of temporary shelters have been opened." "In the departments of Nippes rivers are in flood but they overflowed not too [...]"

Ronsard St-Cyr, the Minister of the Interior and the authorities announced that ".. .the funds are already available in the event of impact, he said that the money will be spent according to the impact in the Department [...]" "there are emergency stocks in all regions, and in case of need we will take prompt action to strengthen..."

Schools closed this Thursday
The National Education and vocational training announced Wednesday night the closure of schools across the territory on Thursday, the reopening of classes should be held in principle Friday.

Flights and cabotage
The cabotage operations on all coastal areas of the country until further notice. However, it is imperative that local flights originating and terminating in terminals of the departments of the South, the Grande Anse, Southeast and Northwest demonstrate caution against the gale-force winds that are more and more obvious threats.

HL / Haitilibre

[Gustywind]

First reports on Jamaica...

News

Sandy pounds eastern end of island

One death reported; 1,046 people in shelters

BY PETRE WILLIAMS-RAYNOR & PAUL HENRY

Thursday, October 25, 2012
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/San ... d_12836407

HURRICANE Sandy churned across the island yesterday, ripping off roofs, uprooting trees, downing utility poles and knocking out electricity in a near three-hour trek that mostly affected eastern parishes.

Last night, the storm was blamed for the death of one man — a resident of Bedward Gardens in St Andrew, who was killed after a boulder fell on his house.

Sandy also forced 1,046 Jamaicans into 67 shelters across the island and triggered flooding, as well as widescale land slippages.

The late-season hurricane that caught many Jamaicans by surprise made landfall on the south-eastern coast of the island approximately five miles east of Kingston at 2:00 pm.

Yesterday evening, the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) reported that 70 per cent of its customer base was without electricity.

JPS said the strong winds and heavy rainfall brought by the hurricane "resulted in downed poles and lines particularly in the parishes of Portland, St Mary, St Ann, St Thomas, St James, Westmoreland, and Hanover".

According to the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), Portland and St Thomas — neighbouring parishes on the eastern end of the island — fared the worst from the slow-moving Category One system.

ODPEM Director General Ronald Jackson told the Jamaica Observer that initial reports from Portland indicated that there were of parish-wide landslides.

Several roads within the communities of Cascade, Fellowship and Reach were blocked as a result of landslides, Jackson said.

Roads in Blue Lagoon remained impassable last night and several houses were also damaged by downed trees.

Jackson said that there was a problem with flooding in St Thomas.

There were however, no reports of deaths or injuries from those parishes.

There were also reports of flooding in Treasure Beach in St Elizabeth.

Today, the ODPEM is expected to begin an islandwide assessment of the damage caused by the hurricane, which is the first to hit Jamaica since the start of the hurricane season on June 1. The season ends on November 30.

"We are waiting for the all-clear to start our full assessment [today]," Jackson said.

He also said that the people in shelters have been provided with cots and blankets. "And where those have run out, we go for foam pads."

The only incident at the shelters, Jackson said, concerned some individuals who had not received breakfast.

"And we managed to sort that out," the ODPEM boss said.

[Gustywind]

Hurricane

Sandy blows on Cuba with winds at 175 km/h

Updated the 25.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 2F15038549 ( see video of Sandy!)

Hurricane Sandy started Thursday to dump heavy rains and do blow strong winds on Cuba after having swept the Jamaica.


In Jamaica, heavy rains and gusts of wind have made at least one death.
Hurricane Sandy goes to the Jamaica

Hurricane Sandy, which further strengthened after hitting the Jamaica touched in Wednesday night to Thursday the southeast coast of Cuba. Winds at 175 miles per hour, according to the Cuban Meteorological Institute. Sandy now from category 1 to category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale which has 5.

Northwards, the hurricane "continues to strengthen, approaching category 3", and reached Cuba at 06 h 25 'at Playa Mar Verde, in the province of Santiago de Cuba", said José Rubiera, chief forecaster of the Institute.

Very heavy rains and winds up to 135 miles per hour is were slaughtered Wednesday evening in the southeast of Cuba, at the approach of Sandy. Six provinces in southeastern Cuba have been placed on alert against Hurricane whose effects first hit the southern coast of Cuba in Wednesday night to Thursday.

Cuban television retransmitted live various reports of these provinces - Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, Holguin and Camaguey - where civil defence, still very reactive to weather, has taken preventive measures to "protect people and property. Some 1,700 people were preventively evacuated so in the province of Santiago de Cuba.

"Cannot endanger one human life, not only one, need to evacuate people from areas that we know flood, without wasting time", said Lazaro Esposito, the head of the Civil Defense of Santiago de Cuba, on television.

Curfew in Jamaica

A few hours earlier, Sandy had struck the capital of the Jamaica, Kingston, where 500 people were received in emergency accommodation centres. Police ordered a 48-hour curfew in the major cities of Jamaica for security reasons and to avoid possible looting.

The hurricane also hit Haiti, more to the East, where a woman who was trying to cross a river in spate was killed, according to Cuban television.

[cycloneye]

More reports from Cuba.

Havana, Oct 25 (Prensa Latina) The hurricane left Sandy today eastern Cuba, after causing affectations, especially with hundreds of downed trees and power outages, according to press reports indicate.
• Hurricane Sandy goes to the Bahamas
Upon entering the province of Santiago de Cuba, the second-most populous country with over a million inhabitants, about 1:25 local time (05:25 GMT), the meteor impacted category two strength to the eastern territory.

According to Cuban television reports, the hurricane-force winds hit the city of Santiago de Cuba, with hundreds of downed trees and left the city completely off.

The weather event, with maximum sustained winds of 175 kilometers per hour, tore roofs of some houses, uprooted trees, electric and telephone poles.

Also, tourist facilities as Baconao Park, east of the city, had been beaten by the winds and sea flooding, reported the provincial radio journalist CMKC, Oscar Ruano.

In Siboney, about 14 kilometers from the city of Santiago de Cuba, the waves reached nine and 10 meters high above the boardwalk of the town, and entered the waters up to 35 meters inland.

Meanwhile, the province of Holguín-third most populous in the country and more than one million inhabitants, reported damages in some homes in the town of Banes, and electric and telephone outages in the towns of Cueto and Mayari.

The hurricane moved through the Middle Sandy Cuban unabated or structure, according to the weather report, upon arrival to Cuban shores by Playa Mar Verde, in the province of Santiago de Cuba.

Sandy remained as a category two hurricane on the five-level Saffir-Simpson-off of the island, in the vicinity of Cabo Lucrecia, Banes, coincidentally where it entered the devastating "Ike" in September 2008.

According to TV reports, floods remain in the country's north coast, from Holguin to Villa Clara.

lac / jha

[cycloneye]

Here are the indirect effects from Sandy comming to Puerto Rico.


.SYNOPSIS...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THIS FLOW WILL BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASED AS HIGH AS 2.4 INCHES BY FRIDAY...WITH
700MB THETA-E VALUES REACHING 340K. IN ADDITION...TRAILING
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE
SANDY...WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...PROMISE TO BRING A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME THUNDERSTORM COULD BE STRONG. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLOODING IS THERE...AS THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. STAY TUNED FOR THE PRODUCTS ISSUE BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN.


&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF T-STORMS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY EWD AND IT APPEARS IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER. LATEST HI-RES NMM
SHOWS THE LINE ARRIVING INTO WRN PR TERMINALS AROUND 00Z AND MOVING
STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE REST OF PR DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AROUND 06Z. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO AT JMZ AND JBQ WHERE
TSRA APPEARS LIKELY AND VCTS AT JPS AND JSJ WHERE TSRA SHOULD BE
MORE SCT AND NOT LIKELY. LLWS WILL BE CONCERN AT JBQ/JMZ AND JSJ
WHERE SFC WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONG.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS HURRICANE SANDY
MOVES OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. REFER TO
MARINE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 77 88 / 80 80 20 30
STT 78 88 80 88 / 50 50 40 40

[Macrocane]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

AT 15UTC HURRICANE SANDY CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 75.5W...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 964 HPA. THE
HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTH AT 14KT.

DISCUSSION FROM OCT 25/00 UTC: THE NHC FORECASTS HURRICANE SANDY
TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND CENTER
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE
APPEARS MORE INTENSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS IT CROSSES THE BAHAMAS. AMPLE VENTILATION AND LARGE
FEEDING BANDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN INTERACTION WITH SURROUNDING
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO IN
REMOTE REGIONS SUCH AS HISPANIOLA/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND EVENTUALLY
PUERTO RICO. THROUGH 36 HRS...EXPECTING LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH 75-125MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-250MM/DAY.
EXPECTING SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA
ASSOCIATED WITH REMOTE FEEDING BANDS IN INTERACTION WITH
OROGRAPHY. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA/SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS/CENTRAL/NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...EXPECTING 25-50MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 75-150MM/DAY AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
FEEDING BANDS. ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA...EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70 ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF SANDY...AND INTERACTION WITH
OROGRAPHY. ACROSS PUERTO RICO...EXPECTING FEEDING BAND TO ARRIVE
LATER TONIGHT AND LEAD TO 15-30MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY.
BY 36-60 HRS...EXPECTING HEAVIEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY. ANOTHER
REGION OF EXTREME RAINFALL WILL BE PUERTO RICO WITH ACCUMULATIONS
25-50MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 75-125MM/DAY IN INTERACTION
WITH OROGRAPHY. MODERATE RAINFALL WILL STILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA WITH ACCUMULATIONS 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
30-60MM/DAY. BY 60-84 HRS...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION WITH HEAVIEST NEAR PUERTO RICO. EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY.

WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...AT MID/UPPER LEVELS HIGH SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE MEANDERING SOUTHWARD. THE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN USA.
THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A POLAR FRONT INTO NORTHERN COAHUILA BY 30
HRS...INTO NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS/NORTHERN NUEVO LEON/CENTRAL
COAHUILA BY 48 HRS. A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE WILL THEN DRIVE THIS
FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS THROUGH 72 HRS. THE FRONT
WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO ON DAY 02 LEADING TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
ENHANCED ACROSS DURANGO/SOUTHESTERN CHIHUAHUA WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. AS NORTHERLIES ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...EXPECTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS AND ESPECIALLY VERACRUZ/NORTHERN OAXACA/CAMPECHE ON DAY
03. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN INTERACTION
WITH OROGRAPHY. ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID/UPPER RIDGE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. MOST
ACTIVE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN JALISCO/COLIMA/GUERRERO WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...INCREASING TO 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY ON DAY 03.

TO THE EAST...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO INTO YUCATAN/GUATEMALA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE CYCLE. IN THE MEAN TIME...IT IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS.
NORTHERLY FLOW AT MID-LOW LEVELS IS HOWEVER INHIBITING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AS A DRIER AIRMASS IS NOW BEING ADVECTED INTO NORTHERN
HONDURAS. STILL...EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN GUATEMALA/COASTAL EL
SALVADOR...NORTHERLY FLOW IS CONSTRAINING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
COASTAL REGIONS WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS COSTA RICA AND
WESTERN/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...AS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH ITCZ IN THE
REGION. EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY ON DAY
01...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SLOPES OF COSTA RICA. AMOUNTS ARE TO
DECREASE 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY ON DAY 02. AMOUNTS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON DAY 03 ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZING ITCZ.
THIS WILL LEAD TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...REGION WILL
CONTINUE INFLUENCED BY MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN INTO COSTA RICA. VENTILATION IN THE PERIPHERY
OF RIDGE WILL HELP TO VENTILATE SOME OF THE CONVECTION. MAJOR
CONCERN ARE THE WANING FEEDING BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONE SANDY
WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS COULD STILL TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED LARGE
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA. YET...A GENERAL DECREASING
TREND IS ESTABLISHING WITH FOCUS OF CONVECTION SLOWLY SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE WEST. INITIALLY EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. BY DAY 3...HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL
CONCENTRATE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA/EASTERN PANAMA AS
NORTHERLIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. TO THE EAST ACROSS
VENEZUELA/GUIANAS...RETROGRESSING TUTT-LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
BY MID-LATE CYCLE. TUTT LOW/AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA
BY 24 HRS...SURINAME/WESTERN PARA BY 48 HRS AND THE ORINOCO
DELTA/WESTERN RORAIMA/SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA BY 72 HRS. REGION WILL
BE MOSTLY INFLUENCED BY UPPER CONVERGENCE...WHICH WILL SUPPRESS
DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE CYCLE. YET...SOME ENHANCEMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE GUIANAS ON DAY 3 IN
INTERACTION WITH REORGANIZING ITCZ...TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY.

PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC...FORECAST
FROM 00UTC.

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
45W 48W 50W 52W DISP. TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE
AS IT ENTERS HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT EXTENDING
OVER THE GUIANAS. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
LIMIT TO THE ATLANTIC ITCZ.

SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)

[Macrocane]

I've posted this pictures in other threads but I think it's fair to post them here too, they're from Cuba:

[cycloneye]

Here is another photo from Santiago de Cuba.

[Gustywind]

:rain: Here are the indirect effects from Sandy comming to Puerto Rico.


.SYNOPSIS...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THIS FLOW WILL BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASED AS HIGH AS 2.4 INCHES BY FRIDAY...WITH
700MB THETA-E VALUES REACHING 340K. IN ADDITION...TRAILING
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE
SANDY...WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...PROMISE TO BRING A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME THUNDERSTORM COULD BE STRONG. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLOODING IS THERE...AS THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. STAY TUNED FOR THE PRODUCTS ISSUE BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN.


&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF T-STORMS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY EWD AND IT APPEARS IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER. LATEST HI-RES NMM
SHOWS THE LINE ARRIVING INTO WRN PR TERMINALS AROUND 00Z AND MOVING
STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE REST OF PR DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AROUND 06Z. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO AT JMZ AND JBQ WHERE
TSRA APPEARS LIKELY AND VCTS AT JPS AND JSJ WHERE TSRA SHOULD BE
MORE SCT AND NOT LIKELY. LLWS WILL BE CONCERN AT JBQ/JMZ AND JSJ
WHERE SFC WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONG.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS HURRICANE SANDY
MOVES OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. REFER TO
MARINE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 77 88 / 80 80 20 30
STT 78 88 80 88 / 50 50 40 40

Be aware Cycloneye. Let's hope that nothing bad occurs in your area in terms of rains and eventually flooding.

[Macrocane]

Bad news from the affected countries:

Hurricane Sandy extended on Thursday their effects by causing 11 deaths in Cuba, nine in Haiti and one in Jamaica, besides destroying thousands of damaged homes, leaving flooded crops and trees felled by the heavy rains and strong winds of up to 165 km/h.

In Haiti, at least nine people died and three others remain missing by Sandy rains, according to an interim assessment offered Thursday by the Minister of the Interior, Leon Ronsard Saint-Cyr.

"This was terrible, here many homes lost their roofs, doors and Windows, blinds were flying." "Many families went running early in the morning because they were falling roofs," he told AFP Lachesis Bravo, a 36-year worker who lives on the outskirts of Santiago de Cuba.

More info here

[cycloneye]

I am sad to see that news and my condolenses go to the families of the people who died. I hope that things return to normal as soon as posible.

[Gustywind]

Yellow vigilance for "dangerous sea.
franceantilles.fr 25.10.2012

Hurricane Sandy at the level of Cuba generates a West swell that reaches the Guadeloupe archipelago late night next in impacting mainly the Caribbean coast. The phenomenon is scheduled until Saturday included.

The sea is currently little rough in Caribbean with dips below 1 m. At the end of night, the hollow increased only very slightly around 1 m 20, but swell a unusual direction (West) side Caribbean and became progressively more energy. This swell moved for Friday and Saturday.
In the Atlantic, the main swell always comes East to Northeast with lows around 1 m 50. In channels, houle of West and East swell intersect in a sea sheaf in sheaf with troughs between 1 m 20 and 1 m 50.
This swell enough energy West despite troughs modest neighbours d1m20, can cause rolls ashore and unusual eddies at the entrance to the ports of the Caribbean coast generally protected.

Link: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 191696.php

[cycloneye]

Good morning. PR is under a flood watch today as bands from Hurricane Sandy move thru. I will keep all informed about anything that may occur here.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST FRI OCT 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OR
JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS

AT MID LEVELS...AS HURRICANE SANDY MOVES IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC MAINTAINS A RIDGE INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGHER PRESSURE FORMS EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS MID WEEK AND SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN NOW THROUGH SUNDAY AS HURRICANE SANDY MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND BOOSTS THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAIN BANDS HAVE FOUND CONVERGENCE ZONES ALONG THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND
COPIOUS RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE MIDNIGHT IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MOST STREAMS HAVE REMAINED BELOW FLOOD LEVEL AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY AS HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH RESPECT TO AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME
MORE INTENSE DURING THE DAY...LEAVING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR LOCAL
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OR EVEN FLASH FLOODING.
WINDS...HOWEVER APPEAR TO BE RELAXING SOMEWHAT AS THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS DUE TO THE INCREASING DISTANCE OF HURRICANE SANDY FROM
THE AREA. THE TRACK OF SANDY IS SUCH THAT THIS ONE LONG
CONNECTION FROM THE TROPICS TO HURRICANE SANDY MAY EXTEND ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
MODELS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL
AREAS WILL STILL SEE OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS. THE GFS SHOWS
INCREASING 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES WHICH REACH AS MUCH AS 1427
METERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS SHOW ONLY A
FEW DAYS REACHING 90 IN SAN JUAN...BUT CONSIDER THIS TO BE TOO LOW
AS PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE ALSO REACHED 91 WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THEREFORE HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND EXPECT SAN JUAN TO REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS UNTIL SOUTH FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH
DECENT WIND FLOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE REACHING 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN A FEW SHELTERED
INLAND VALLEYS...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THESE TEMPERATURES STAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE OCCASIONAL
MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OF
TJSJ...TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS ALL
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST 26/22Z. PASSING SHOWER COULD ALSO
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIST AND TISX TERMINALS
THROUGH 26/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TNCM AND TKPK
TERMINALS THROUGH 26/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY FAILED TO REACH A SUSTAINED 22
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA AS SANDY MOVES NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. SINCE THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX YET SOME MORE...THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS SEAS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS SWELL ARRIVE FROM SANDY`S EXTENDED STAY IN
THE CARIBBEAN. SWELL FROM HURRICANE SANDY`S TRACK IN THE ATLANTIC
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 10 FEET OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA AND ANEGADA
PASSAGES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF PUERTO
RICO. WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL FALL DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS THE RAIN BANDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THESE BANDS SHIFT EASTWARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 90 80 / 60 50 60 30
STT 88 82 88 82 / 60 60 30 20

[cycloneye]

Sandys tail has been affecting Puerto Rico since last night and there have been some flooding in a few areas.This is in a town in SW PR.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1138 AM AST FRI OCT 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE SANDY WILL PREVAIL ALSO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK


&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH SUBSTANTIAL
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...12Z JSJ RAOB AND
A 1345Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A DEEP SRLY FLOW OF 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT SEA BREEZE CYCLE. WHILE SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THESE
SHOULD BE BRIEF AND MOVE FAST LIMITING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING BUT WILL KEEP
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW UNTIL 3 PM BUT LIKELY CANCEL IT THEN. STILL
CONCERN THAT THERE WILL BE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT`S AGAIN TONIGHT
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE NOT SUPPORTING ANYTHING SERIOUS. WILL REEVALUTE
SITUATION LATER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
LATER TODAY.

[cycloneye]

Sad news to report as Sandy's death toll has risen to 29: 11 in Cuba, 1 in Jamaica, 1 in the Bahamas, and 16 in Haiti.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the ... story.html

[Gustywind]

Sandys tail has been affecting Puerto Rico since last night and there have been some flooding in a few areas.This is in a town in SW PR.

http://oi45.tinypic.com/e88j9j.jpg

http://oi46.tinypic.com/s3it92.jpg

Impressive pics of these floodings in PR Cycloneye! Continue to monitor closely the situation that reminds me Rafael there's two weeks ago.

[Macrocane]

cycloneye it seems that more rain awaits for you, keep us updated please:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1146 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

AT 15UTC HURRICANE SANDY CENTERED NEAR 26.7N 76.9W...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 HPA. THE
HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTH AT 05KT.

DISCUSSION FROM OCT 26/00 UTC: THE NHC FORECASTS HURRICANE SANDY
TO EXIT THE FORECAST DOMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. STILL...THE
CYCLONE HAS INTERACTED WITH TROUGH TO THE WEST AND AMPLE MOISTURE
POOL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO ESTABLISH A FORMIDABLE REGION OF
VENTILATION FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THIS REGION NOT EXTENDS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA/SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND IS EXTENDING INTO PUERTO
RICO/USVI. AT LOW-LEVELS...ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON A
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STILL PRODUCING ORGANIZED BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH ECHO TRAINING WITHIN THEM. THESE ARE
AFFECTING SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AS THEY SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO PUERTO RICO WHILE REORGANIZING. EXPECTING THEN MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION THROUGH 36 HRS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY. ACROSS
PUERTO RICO EXPECTING 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 100-125MM/DAY AS
FEEDER BANDS COLLAPSE AND REGENERATE TRANSPORTING DEEP CONVECTION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE ISLAND. BY 36-60 HRS...EXPECTING SHARP
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WHILE IN PUERTO RICO
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST. EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
ACCUMULATIONS TO 15-20MM/DAY AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY
IN REGIONS OF ECHO TRAINING IN INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY. BY
60-84 HRS...EXPECTING BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN ELEVATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN UNISON WITH A DECREASE IN DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO A
MARKED DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. STILL...IT IS HARD TO TELL EXACT
LOCATION OF BAND OF CONVECTION/ECHO TRAINING. IF THE BAND CROSSES
THE ISLAND...THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
CUBA/CENTRAL BAHAMAS...EXPECTING STRONGEST CONVECTION TODAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WANING FEEDING BANDS OF SANDY. EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS REACHING 15-30MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...AND 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

WEST OVER THE DOMAIN AND AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE
SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL MEANDERING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH DAY 01 AS WESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO.
A TROUGH OVER THE USA SUPPORTS A POLAR FRONT...FORECAST TO EXTEND
ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS/CENTRAL COAHUILA BY 24 HRS...TAMPICO BY
36 HRS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ BY 48 HRS TO GRADUALLY LOSE DEFINITION.
THE FRONT WILL INDUCE A NORTES THAT WILL PEAK AT 30-35KT DURING
THE MORNING ON DAY 02. THESE WILL PRODUCE A TEHUANTEPEC JET OF
35-40KT THAT WILL PEAK BY 48-60 HRS. INITIALLY...THE FRONT WILL
TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM/DAY ON DAY 1. ON DAY 02...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS VERACRUZ WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE ON DAY 03 LEADING TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM/DAY ACROSS VERACRUZ/NORTHERN OAXACA. ELSEWHERE IN
MEXICO...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID/UPPER
RIDGE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. MOST ACTIVE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
JALISCO/COLIMA/GUERRERO WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION PRODUCING
GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

TO THE EAST...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN GULF/WESTERN
CUBA/GULF OF HONDURAS WILL ALSO FLATTEN THROUGH THE CYCLE
ESTABLISHING WESTERLY FLOW IN REGIONS TO THE NORTH OF NICARAGUA
THROUGH DAY 03. AT LOW LEVELS...NORTHERLY FLOW IS SUSTAINING A DRY
PATTERN LIMITING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO COASTAL
GUATEMALA/NICARAGUA. A SURGE IN ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON DAY 03 AS A NEW NORTHERLY SURGE ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PRODUCING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-30MM/DAY. SEASONABLY MOISTER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS COSTA
RICA/SOUTHERN PANAMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH REORGANIZING ITCZ.
STILL...EXPECTING A DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. INITIALLY...EXPECTING HEAVIEST ACROSS EASTERN COSTA
RICA TO PRODUCE 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY ON DAY 01. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AS ITCZ REFORMS TO THE SOUTH
INTO THE CHOCO IN COLOMBIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN COSTA RICA/PANAMA IN THE
ORDER OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY.

ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...TUTT IS RETROGRESSING AND WILL
EXTEND ACROSS GUYANA BY 24 HRS...ACROSS SOUTHERN VENEZUELA-ORINOCO
DELTA BY 48 HRS...AND ACROSS THE COLOMBIAN LLANOS/VENEZUELAN ANDES
BY 72 HRS. ACROSS EASTERN VENEZUELA/GUIANAS...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AND DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT EFFECTS OF TUTT IN CONVECTION. FURTHER
WEST...HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE POOL WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCEMENT
OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY LATE CYCLE. AT LOW LEVELS...GREATEST
CONCERN ARE THE WANING FEEDING BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
SANDY...WHICH WILL STILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER
MAGDALENA/LAGO MARACAIBO/NORTHERN COAST EARLY IN THE CYCLE. AN
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN LLANOS
FAVORED BY GOOD VENTILATION IN PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE CARRIBEAN. TO THE WEST...EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ IS REORGANIZING
AND WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE CHOCO INTO THE EJE CAFETERO LATE
DURING DAY 02 INTO DAY 03. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO PEAK ACROSS THE CHOCO/EJE CAFETERO/LOWER MAGDALENA ON
DAY 03 ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLIES AT LOW-LEVELS. THROUGH 36
HRS...EXPECTING HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA/LOWER MAGDALENA
TO PRODUCE 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. ANOTHER
ACTIVE REGION WILL BE THE LLANOS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. BY LATE CYCLE...EXPECTING ACTIVATION
ACROSS THE ANDES BUT ESPECIALLY THE CHOCO/EJE CAFETERO AS ITCZ
INTERACTS WITH TUTT. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY ACROSS THE CHOCO/EJE CAFETERO. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE ANDES EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY.

PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC...FORECAST
FROM 00UTC.

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE

49W 51W 53W DISP. TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE
AS IT ENTERS HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT EXTENDING
OVER THE GUIANAS. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
LIMIT TO THE ATLANTIC ITCZ.

SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Not good news to report as a man has been swept by a raging river. The authorities are trying to locate him but so far nothing. Translated to english.

Authorities are seeking a man who is believed was dragged by a flood at the mouth of the Jaguas River, which ran along its sector Chamomile, Juana Díaz, a result of the rains which began to be felt in the island this morning due to the remnants of Hurricane Sandy.According to the Press Office of the Ponce area, William Colón Cruz, 51, still not has been located by rescue workers, agents of the Agency for emergency management, municipal and State police and the helicopter of the United forces for rapid action (FURA), who work in the emergency situation.Efforts to locate the missing person have been complicated because the water is too cloudy in the mouth and you are dragging large amount of logs and debris in its path.Colon Cruz, who lives in a business abandoned near this area, used to cross the River to go fishing Fiddler, as neighbors declared them to the authorities.