ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Going to be an epic Storm. Hope everyone in the NE States take this seriously, with it expected to spread in size and becoming baroclinic driven it is going to rival the 38 Storm in surge no doubt!

[Stephanie]

I AM NOT thrilled with seeing that Tropical Storm dot for Sandy sitting right over me (NJ). This is absolutely insane.

I hope that the close call with Irene last year doesn't make people in the Philadelphia/Delmarva/NYC area complacent. I have ALOT of trees our house. I'm 50 miles inland but 15 miles from the Delaware River. There's going to be a lot of flooding, flooded roads. I'm nervous.

I'm afraid your fear at this point is warranted. the trends certainly don't look good for the mid atlantic and northeast. this may be a benchmark storm on long time weather watcher barometers over a wide area. hopefully many of the deciduous trees are ready to release their leaves so they hold up better in high winds.

We're very near peak color, and the leaves have started falling more rapidly. That should be a big help, hopefully.

[ozonepete]

I live in central nj, east brunswick to be exact, will it be as bad as southern nj or the coast? I don't want to discount the damage Irene caused for the northeast but my location was easily spared, wind damage was minimal, some flooding, and no power outages so can I expect a similar outcome or slightly worse?

And what are the chances that Sandy become a lot less severe once it gets up here similar to how Irene was forecast to be a Category 2 but instead was a strong tropical storm?

We have been posting that this could be a lot worse than Irene. You are in Tom's River and that is very close to the coast so I would think your wind damage would be worse this time if the forecast holds up. Sandy is a different animal - a hybrid storm that won't weaken the way Irene did.

[Dean4Storms]

A More Perfect Storm......Good read!

http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/ ... fect-storm

[SootyTern]

I live in central nj, east brunswick to be exact, will it be as bad as southern nj or the coast? I don't want to discount the damage Irene caused for the northeast but my location was easily spared, wind damage was minimal, some flooding, and no power outages so can I expect a similar outcome or slightly worse?

And what are the chances that Sandy become a lot less severe once it gets up here similar to how Irene was forecast to be a Category 2 but instead was a strong tropical storm?

Every storm is different; just because the last one didn't affect you too badly doesn't mean this one won't. If I was where you are I would prepare for a couple of weeks without power. If Sandy isn't that bad, you have some extra supplies around the house, so buy food you'll want to eat anyways. If she does come in worse, you will be so thankful you prepared.

[Evil Jeremy]

Joe Bastardi tweeting Sandy will be 100 miles or less and intesifying off the Florida coast.

Dont know how this possible when sandy is moving northward quickly at 20. Looks like its closest approach right now.

It's been heading NNW at a slower pace for a while now.

[hurricaneCW]

I live in central nj, east brunswick to be exact, will it be as bad as southern nj or the coast? I don't want to discount the damage Irene caused for the northeast but my location was easily spared, wind damage was minimal, some flooding, and no power outages so can I expect a similar outcome or slightly worse?

And what are the chances that Sandy become a lot less severe once it gets up here similar to how Irene was forecast to be a Category 2 but instead was a strong tropical storm?

We have been posting that this could be a lot worse than Irene. You are in Tom's River and that is very close to the coast so I would think your wind damage would be worse this time if the forecast holds up. Sandy is a different animal - a hybrid storm that won't weaken the way Irene did.

I'm part of that whole "Oh Irene wasn't so bad so this one will probably be nothing either- public outlook" just because the scenario unfolding seems so unlikely, almost impossible. And I work in Toms River so I know it's going to be a disaster down there no matter what. I do enjoy going through all the analysis, highly interesting.

[floridasun78]

is gust for plam beach area? i see some post early that nws in miami say wind gust to 70mph in forecast

[hurricaneCW]

I live in central nj, east brunswick to be exact, will it be as bad as southern nj or the coast? I don't want to discount the damage Irene caused for the northeast but my location was easily spared, wind damage was minimal, some flooding, and no power outages so can I expect a similar outcome or slightly worse?

And what are the chances that Sandy become a lot less severe once it gets up here similar to how Irene was forecast to be a Category 2 but instead was a strong tropical storm?

Every storm is different; just because the last one didn't affect you too badly doesn't mean this one won't. If I was where you are I would prepare for a couple of weeks without power. If Sandy isn't that bad, you have some extra supplies around the house, so buy food you'll want to eat anyways. If she does come in worse, you will be so thankful you prepared.

It's just incredible that this area is dealing with such systems. We see plenty of typical coastal storms or nor'easters and the occasional tropical storm or remnants brush by but nothing like this. First Irene, now this.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Every storm is different; just because the last one didn't affect you too badly doesn't mean this one won't. If I was where you are I would prepare for a couple of weeks without power. If Sandy isn't that bad, you have some extra supplies around the house, so buy food you'll want to eat anyways. If she does come in worse, you will be so thankful you prepared.

Thats the truth! Ask someone in Palm Beach County what they thought of Isaac compared to someone in Naples. Even though Isaac passed closer to Naples, that one band that got stuck over PBC dropped almost 20 inches of rain.

[artist]

is gust for plam beach area? i see some post early that nws in miami say wind gust to 70mph in forecast

I believe up to 75 in the Jupiter area is even forecast.

[Weatherguy173]

New Jersey is such a small place (i live in essex county), and why does it always have to get battered and bullied by storms and tropical systems? (floyd, irene, Halloween storm last year).

[Bocadude85]

is gust for plam beach area? i see some post early that nws in miami say wind gust to 70mph in forecast

I believe up to 75 in the Jupiter area is even forecast.

They are even forecasting gusts to 65mph in the Miami area.... I am still not sure I believe we will come anywhere close to those numbers but we shall see

[stephen23]

Yes, it's pretty amazing how different storms do different damage. While insurance adjusting in New Orleans 2 months ago I met lots of people who thought they had nothing to worry about with Isaac because they did not recieve any damage with Katrina. They were spared for the most part north of lake Pontchartrain during Katrina. Isaac this year with a lot less wind speed caused alot of damage that far north due to the slow movemement. Places flooded this time that saw no flooding during Katrina. My point is you really never know what the storm is going to hand you. I would defently be prepairing for the worst. From this angle this IMO will not compair to Irene at all. Like all the pro mets are saying on here, this could end up be the a history making storm.

[artist]

is gust for plam beach area? i see some post early that nws in miami say wind gust to 70mph in forecast

I believe up to 75 in the Jupiter area is even forecast.

They are even forecasting gusts to 65mph in the Miami area.... I am still not sure I believe we will come anywhere close to those numbers but we shall see

Hubby had to go over to Hollywood tonight and said the winds are bad there already.

[Lutrastorm]

I live 4 miles from the coast at Bethany Beach, Delaware. I am very concerned at the complacency here. With torrential rains, the astronomical high tides and water pushing into the bays, this area will take days to drain. So far no prep has been started for evacuation of low lying areas and trees have hardly begun dropping leaves. I've begun prep and everybody in my office thinks I'm crazy. This will be a serious testing of the beach replenishment done here over the past few years. Being peninsula, there are only a few evac routes off Delmarva.. We're 50 years past the "March Storm of '62" and many don't remember the damage from that nor'easter.

On another note, it appears my place on Eleuthera in the Bahamas skidded by with no damage. Spoke to friends on the island and they say it was windy and rainy but power has remained on for the most part.

[stephen23]

I live 4 miles from the coast at Bethany Beach, Delaware. I am very concerned at the complacency here. With torrential rains, the astronomical high tides and water pushing into the bays, this area will take days to drain. So far no prep has been started for evacuation of low lying areas and trees have hardly begun dropping leaves. I've begun prep and everybody in my office thinks I'm crazy. This will be a serious testing of the beach replenishment done here over the past few years. Being peninsula, there are only a few evac routes off Delmarva.. We're 50 years past the "March Storm of '62" and many don't remember the damage from that nor'easter.

On another note, it appears my place on Eleuthera in the Bahamas skidded by with no damage. Spoke to friends on the island and they say it was windy and rainy but power has remained on for the most part.

That's great to hear

[Blown Away]

Joe Bastardi tweeting Sandy will be 100 miles or less and intesifying off the Florida coast.

Dont know how this possible when sandy is moving northward quickly at 20. Looks like its closest approach right now.

It's been heading NNW at a slower pace for a while now.

Joe Bastardi tweeting and predicts hurricane conditions from WPB to Cape Canaveral. Likes the ECMWF looping within 100 miles of Florida coast.

He is on a hurricane high following his NE CONUS prediction when most models said recurve!!

[floridasun78]

miami forcast say this Overnight Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Windy, with a north wind around 26 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Windy, with a north wind 28 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday Night A 30 percent chance of showers before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Windy, with a northwest wind 29 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. look like higher wind north of me

[chaser1]

Joe Bastardi tweeting Sandy will be 100 miles or less and intesifying off the Florida coast.

Dont know how this possible when sandy is moving northward quickly at 20. Looks like its closest approach right now.

It's been heading NNW at a slower pace for a while now.

Latest 0Z NAM is coming out and remaining consistant with South Florida impact. Is forcasting Sandy to reach Abaco Island's latitude and then abruptly make a "left" turn toward Florida coastline at 12 Z tomorrow (Fri), and slowly completing a nice tight cyclonic loop south and then around Grand Bahama & Abaco Island again 24 hours later (12Z - Sat. a.m ), before pulling back out to the NNE again. That'll push some good gusts down the coast a bit!