ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

Bocadude85 · #1281 Postby **Bocadude85** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:23 pm

Joe Bastardi tweeting and predicts hurricane conditions from WPB to Cape Canaveral. Likes the ECMWF looping within 100 miles of Florida coast.

He is on a hurricane high following his NE CONUS prediction when most models said recurve!![/quote][/quote]

Well the NWS Miami is predicting wind gusts to 75mph in North Palm Beach so he may not be that far off if the forecast verifies.

floridasun78 · #1282 Postby **floridasun78** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:30 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Joe Bastardi tweeting and predicts hurricane conditions from WPB to Cape Canaveral. Likes the ECMWF looping within 100 miles of Florida coast.

He is on a hurricane high following his NE CONUS prediction when most models said recurve!!

[/quote]

Well the NWS Miami is predicting wind gusts to 75mph in North Palm Beach so he may not be that far off if the forecast verifies.[/quote]
ts warring you could get gust to 75 here miami now stop raining

#1283 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:31 pm

floridasun78 wrote:miami forcast say this Overnight Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Windy, with a north wind around 26 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Windy, with a north wind 28 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday Night A 30 percent chance of showers before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Windy, with a northwest wind 29 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. look like higher wind north of me

Here's what i got for miami...

Friday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely before 9am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 9am and 3pm, then a chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. North wind 28 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of showers before 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. West wind 28 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Miami&state=FL&site=MFL&textField1=25.77&textField2=-80.2&e=1

floridasun78 · #1284 Postby **floridasun78** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:32 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Joe Bastardi tweeting and predicts hurricane conditions from WPB to Cape Canaveral. Likes the ECMWF looping within 100 miles of Florida coast.

He is on a hurricane high following his NE CONUS prediction when most models said recurve!!

[/quote]

Well the NWS Miami is predicting wind gusts to 75mph in North Palm Beach so he may not be that far off if the forecast verifies.[/quote]
ts warring you could see wind to 75 so may happen

#1285 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:37 pm

Delray Beach Forecast tomorrow...gusts to 70mph: :eek:

If those verify, should see some scattered power outages...tree limbs down as well, debris on the roads, etc

Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. North wind 31 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 1379882814

ObsessedMiami · #1286 Postby **ObsessedMiami** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:44 pm

Well the NWS Miami is predicting wind gusts to 75mph in North Palm Beach so he may not be that far off if the forecast verifies.

Just scroll back about 20 pages (8 hours ago) to see posts about school closings on Friday being premature. Amazing.

#1287 Postby **KBBOCA** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:45 pm

Gmail picked an interesting week to start sending my NWS email hurricane updates to my spam folder! I didn't even know Sandy existed until late yesterday (it's been a busy week and I've been traveling).

I'm not directly threatened - I'm in W. Africa, where I work most of the year. However I have many friends and family in the path from SE FL (Boca), the DelMarVa, and northern NJ (where I grew up) and NYC and Long Island.

I can't believe what I'm reading here. YIKES! Praying the current models will not verify. I think I know what I'll be doing all weekend now. Hitting refresh on this thread and the NHC pages!

Stay safe all!

boca · #1288 Postby **boca** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:46 pm

It wont be that windy tomorrow Sandy is almost due east of us now.By tomorrow it will be furhter up the coast30 to 40 mph,guts to 65 or 70 I don't think will happen.

#1289 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:49 pm

boca wrote:It wont be that windy tomorrow Sandy is almost due east of us now.By tomorrow it will be furhter up the coast30 to 40 mph,guts to 65 or 70 I don't think will happen.

Sandy will likely slow way down tomorrow and windfield should expand. The ECMWF is showing this possibility. Maybe the 00Z ECMWF will back away from this.

SunnyThoughts · #1290 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:52 pm

You guys in S Fla take care, as well as our neighbors to the North. If you have time, and you haven't yet seen this...its very informative about the 1938 Hurricane and the Long Island area. Its a documentary, but with actors playing real life people...as well as actual survivors comments and aftermath pictgures. Really worth the watch if and when you have time. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4Lf5uIo ... re=related

Weatherguy173 · #1291 Postby **Weatherguy173** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:54 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:You guys in S Fla take care, as well as our neighbors to the North. If you have time, and you haven't yet seen this...its very informative about the 1938 Hurricane and the Long Island area. Its a documentary, but with actors playing real life people...as well as actual survivors comments and aftermath pictgures. Really worth the watch if and when you have time. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4Lf5uIo ... re=related

i mentioned 1938 earlier... one town comes to mind, Westhampton Beach, it was submerged in 10 ft of water, really interesting story if you look it up.

Bocadude85 · #1292 Postby **Bocadude85** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:55 pm

gatorcane wrote:
boca wrote:It wont be that windy tomorrow Sandy is almost due east of us now.By tomorrow it will be furhter up the coast30 to 40 mph,guts to 65 or 70 I don't think will happen.

Sandy will likely slow way down tomorrow and windfield should expand. The ECMWF is showing this possibility. Maybe the 00Z ECMWF will back away from this.

I am curious what caused the NWS to increase the winds so much? They can't be basing this forecast off one single model. Can anyone explain what would cause near hurricane force gusts in SE Fla when Sandy is forecast to be 200 miles east of us?

#1293 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:58 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
boca wrote:It wont be that windy tomorrow Sandy is almost due east of us now.By tomorrow it will be furhter up the coast30 to 40 mph,guts to 65 or 70 I don't think will happen.

Sandy will likely slow way down tomorrow and windfield should expand. The ECMWF is showing this possibility. Maybe the 00Z ECMWF will back away from this.

I am curious what caused the NWS to increase the winds so much? They can't be basing this forecast off one single model. Can anyone explain what would cause near hurricane force gusts in SE Fla when Sandy is forecast to be 200 miles east of us?

Earlier today there were numerous reports of gusts over 50 mph while Sandy was even farther away. As Sandy gets closer and her wind field expands further, higher gusts can be expected.

#1294 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:58 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY PASSING NEAR ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

#1295 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:01 pm

Theoretically, if the NAM/EURO/Bastardi solution verifies, nearly the entire Florida Peninsula will get TS winds. They would have to issue warnings on the west coast of the state!

HurrMark · #1296 Postby **HurrMark** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:06 pm

An interpolation would take the center over extreme S Jersey, but it would probably be more a slightly more gradual turn than this...so my guess is central Jersey for landfall. The 90 mph sounds right...

#1297 Postby **brunota2003** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:09 pm

A lot of what Florida is dealing with are gradient winds, between the high to the north and Sandy.

boca · #1298 Postby **boca** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:10 pm

the gusts just wont verify the winds are only 20 to 25 now and the storm is not getting much closer than it is right now.

Bocadude85 · #1299 Postby **Bocadude85** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:12 pm

boca wrote:the gusts just wont verify the winds are only 20 to 25 now and the storm is not getting much closer than it is right now.

I guess they are expecting the windfield to expand

Aric Dunn · #1300 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:12 pm

50mph sustained winds at fowey rocks. few miles offshore Biscayne bay. numerous gusts in to the 50's all around south florida and some 60mph gust as well.

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