ATL: SANDY - Models

[HurrMark]

Virtually identical at 105 hrs...952 mb...starting to eye the Jersey shore.

[bzukajo]

A tad north of 12Z at 90 hrs...starting to see a negative tilt but not as pronounced as the 12Z tilt.

Not to appear ignorant (But I am to a degree) The tilt is west or east? North south? Or am I missing the point entirely?

[CrazyC83]

GFS seems slightly east of earlier. Pointing back towards NYC probably.

[storm4u]

wow gfs crushes us at 114

[HurrMark]

Identical landfall to 12Z the evening of 30 OCT/early morning 31 OCT through N. Y. Bight...perhaps a few millibars weaker, but still a formidable storm.

[bzukajo]

My gutcast says between NJ/NYC....but I need to see an 00Z model

[CrazyC83]

The 00Z is my worst case scenario

[artist]

could someone post the graphics for those that are wondering, please?
Now, good night all!

[HurrMark]

My gutcast says between NJ/NYC....but I need to see a 00Z model

This is the 00Z model.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=GFS&area=NAMER&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE

[HurrMark]

A tad north of 12Z at 90 hrs...starting to see a negative tilt but not as pronounced as the 12Z tilt.

Not to appear ignorant (But I am to a degree) The tilt is west or east? North south? Or am I missing the point entirely?

Negative means the trough axis goes from southeast to northwest, which is how the air flows. And in this case, the storm would follow that path, and turn in a more westerly direction.

[HurrMark]

And after landfall, it takes a tour of New England...from New London to Boston to NH and then back into VT by the morning of 1 NOV.

[brunota2003]

That GFS run is something else. Heads for Rhode Island, then travels westward along/south of Long Island before making landfall on NYC...then heads south and east, does a loop and makes another landfall in Rhode Island. Anyone up for scuba diving the lost city of New York? Good grief!

[bzukajo]

My gutcast says between NJ/NYC....but I need to see a 00Z model

This is the 00Z model.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=GFS&area=NAMER&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE

Thank you

I am pulling my father out of Rye, NY. Irene had a surge to his doorstep. This is the western
convergent tip of the sound. This model just got him a nice stay at a hotel in Greenwich. Thank you.

[CrazyC83]

The 00Z after landfall STALLS the system over me for about 36 hours...

[brunota2003]

Thank you

I am pulling my father out of Rye, NY. Irene had a surge to his doorstep. This is the western
convergent tip of the sound. This model just got him a nice stay at a hotel in Greenwich. Thank you.

Sounds like a smart plan, as far as getting him out. It looks like this one will be worse than Irene (though I hope not!). NWS in NYC is already telling people to look up their local shelters, and find out if they are in evacuation zones, and it sounds like they are expecting evacuation orders here soon.

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. FIND
OUT IF YOU LIVE WITHIN A STORM SURGE EVACUATION ZONE. KNOW THE
LOCATION OF DESIGNATED OFFICIAL SHELTERS AND LEARN THE MOST DIRECT
SAFE ROUTE TO GET THERE. MOST SHELTERS WILL NOT ALLOW PETS...AND
SOME SHELTERS HAVE FACILITIES FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...SO TAKE
THESE INTO CONSIDERATION. ADDITIONALLY...KNOW YOUR EVACUATION ROUTES
IN ADVANCE. MUCH OF THIS INFORMATION MAY BE FOUND AT YOUR LOCAL TOWN
HALL...OR ON THE INTERNET AT YOUR COUNTY'S OFFICE OF EMERGENCY
WEBSITE.

LISTEN CAREFULLY TO LOCAL OFFICIALS AND EVACUATE THE AREA IF TOLD TO
DO SO. IF YOU DO NOT EVACUATE TO AN OFFICIAL SHELTER...YOU MAY
CONSIDER STAYING AT A FRIEND'S OR RELATIVE'S HOME OUT OF THE
EVACUATION ZONE. LEAVE LOW LYING OR COASTAL AREAS...AS WELL AS
OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS MOST PRONE TO STORM SURGE.
STORM SURGE IS THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF A STORM SUCH AS THIS ONE.
THE SURGE IS A DOME OF WATER THAT COMES ACROSS THE COAST AS THE
STORM MAKES LANDFALL. IF YOU LIVE CLOSE TO THE COAST IN A MOBILE
HOME YOU SHOULD EVACUATE TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER...EVEN IF YOU
ARE NOT IN A STORM SURGE PRONE AREA.

Link with other preparedness information, including the above, from NWS NYC.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/products/static.txt

[CrazyC83]

NYC may have to evacuate up to Zone B on that track...

[Evil Jeremy]

Pressure down to 965.4mb!

[stephen23]

Euro running

[Evil Jeremy]

Both the 00z HWRF and GFDL bring this storm noticeably closer to FL than the previous cycles.

[stephen23]

Euro showing 957mb in 24 hrs and 940mb in 48 hrs.