ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[somethingfunny]

Not sure if this is the proper thread to post this in, but I wrote it up and it's important stuff to share:


Everyone ought to be prepared for several days without power. This forum's here so that you know ahead of time... and can get to the store before the insane masses do so on the weekend. If the storm is "over-hyped", you have a bunch of supplies you'll eventually use anyway.

As far as evacuations go, hide from wind, run from water. Your house is not going to collapse. Your trees might, but hopefully Irene or the derecho in June pruned those for you.... I'm from Texas where the frenzied evacuation of 5 million people from Hurricane Rita caused more deaths than the actual hurricane did. Don't evacuate unless you're instructed to by the authorities. But if you live in a flood zone, you should get prepared for the possibility that you will be instructed to evacuate.

Storm surge flooding will mainly occur to the right (east or north, depending on the angle of your coastline) of where the storm's center makes landfall. The danger zone for surge can't be pinpointed this far out in advance; but you should use Cat2/3 surge maps as a gauge for if you might be in a surge zone for this storm, because the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a very bad thing and should not be paid attention to at all in the case of Hurricane (or tropical storm or subtropical hybrid frankenweeniestorm) Sandy.

Inland flooding is a huge concern with Sandy. If you live near a river that tends to flood, get your plans together now because you might find yourself needing to leave home very quickly.

You're going to see a lot of insane hype with this storm from the media, like this ridiculous tweet from CNN but, being completely realistic here, I don't see any way that this storm ends up being less of a severe impact than Hurricane Irene was. Your most likely scenario is it's about like a repeat of Irene, except it lasts for several days, so there could be more surge, more rain, and more time for the relentless wind to beat down on weakened structures and trees.

Do not focus on the black line in the center of the forecast cone, it is a horrible lie. If you're in the cone, you're in the cone - and serious impacts will also occur outside of the cone.

[funster]

Chad Myers is a met, not a journalist, so I think he was giving his honest opinion and not hyping Sandy. He says he spent 20 minutes working on that particular tweet.

[WeatherGuesser]

HPC 1-5 Day plot puts more than 9" over southern NJ

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/zoom/R ... ys_1-5.gif

[Cyclenall]

Chad Myers is a met, not a journalist, so I think he was giving his honest opinion and not hyping Sandy. He says he spent 20 minutes working on that particular tweet.

I agree, how was that tweet ridiculous? What is ridiculous is the lack of activity on here (yes, even in the middle of the night) for what could be a defining time in meteorological history. If everyone knew the 1993 Storm of the Century was going to happen again in 4 days, you would think people would be flying off the rails non-stop. We might have something even worse and nothing!?! On a side note, how do you spend 20 minutes on 140 characters?

[WeatherGuesser]

...SANDY PASSING NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND... ...WIND FIELD CONTINUING TO EXPAND...

5:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 26
Location: 26.3°N 76.9°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

[somethingfunny]

I phrased my post the way I did because I think that the media hype is actually off-putting to some folks, who might appreciate a more sober and conservative assessment of some very serious risks. Myers tweeted that he thinks Sandy has the highest potential for loss of life that any storm he's tracked in 26 years had. I've only been tracking for 17 years, but I remember a storm beginning with K that puts his hyperbole in its' place. This is the most a storm has scared me since that one, though. People need to be prepared to evacuate and be prepared to sit in place without power for a week or longer; we don't need to be telling people that they're going to die. It's not an effective way at all to communicate the steps everyone needs to be taking right now.

[WeatherGuesser]

Couple of quick thoughts:

For those with gasoline generators, 10-15 gallons really isn't enough. That may only last a day or two. You should probably consider 30-40 gallons at least on the possibility gas stations may not have power to pump from their tanks.

For those with gas stoves, most use some sort of electronic/spark ignition which won't work without power. Have butane wand type lighters on hand.

[funster]

I phrased my post the way I did because I think that the media hype is actually off-putting to some folks, who might appreciate a more sober and conservative assessment of some very serious risks. Myers tweeted that he thinks Sandy has the highest potential for loss of life that any storm he's tracked in 26 years had. I've only been tracking for 17 years, but I remember a storm beginning with K that puts his hyperbole in its' place. This is the most a storm has scared me since that one, though. People need to be prepared to evacuate and be prepared to sit in place without power for a week or longer; we don't need to be telling people that they're going to die. It's not an effective way at all to communicate the steps everyone needs to be taking right now.

I see. Myers reported during Katrina for CNN and so he must think more people could possibly die during Sandy. I doubt he forgot about Katrina. Hopefully no one will die.

[WeatherGuesser]

NYC Subways were shut down over a weekend for Irene which was not much more than a large inconvenience.

Imagine if they have to shut them down on a Monday or Tuesday.

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

We have the same type of scare mongering tactics by the media in Australia when a tropical cyclone is about, especially a big one. In the end though its a good thing, it means they usually get everyones attention, which in turn gives people more time to prepare for a storm. Just remember guys do not use a generator or "genny"as we call them in Australia in a inclosed place. After Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi hit us in 2011 ( category 5 ) a bloke managed to kill himself from suffocation.

Im actually also suprised by the lack of activity in here, im all the way on the otherside of the world and im onto this event like a hawk. Stay safe guys, i hope sandy doesnt get too close to Florida and creates problems. If you live in the Mid Atlantic coastline though you have to start preparing now. Actually the whole eastern seaboard should be preparing.

[Kingarabian]

Ugly looking storm to say the least. Not as sexy as she looked yesterday... Hopefully some magical un-forecasted shear will decapitate it. I'm scared for all the lives at risk. Those New Yorkers are extremely stubborn and they don't take these things seriously.

[jlauderdal]

NYC Subways were shut down over a weekend for Irene which was not much more than a large inconvenience.

Imagine if they have to shut them down on a Monday or Tuesday.

if it gets to that then people shouldn't be out anyway..shutting down public transportation forces this issues so its actually a good thing... essential services like fire, police, hospitals will have a contingency plan in place

[jlauderdal]

Couple of quick thoughts:

For those with gasoline generators, 10-15 gallons really isn't enough. That may only last a day or two. You should probably consider 30-40 gallons at least on the possibility gas stations may not have power to pump from their tanks.

For those with gas stoves, most use some sort of electronic/spark ignition which won't work without power. Have butane wand type lighters on hand.

Be prepared for at least 5 days no power..do the calculation..10 gallons a day for my generator is the formula..5x10=50...if you dont have to use it then be happy and put it in your car..i had 50 on hand for isaac, power never went out, put it in my car, i had paid 3.55 gallon and gas went up so i saved about $5 in fuel costs

[jlauderdal]

Chad Myers is a met, not a journalist, so I think he was giving his honest opinion and not hyping Sandy. He says he spent 20 minutes working on that particular tweet.

yep he was being honest and the fact he spent 20 minutes on that tweet tells us even more so draw your own conclusions..we dont even know where this thing is going, too much track error to start the hype machine and discussing the apocalypse for nyc or any other location

here is another tidbit for your chad evaluation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFAsyYnTkIw

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

Latest ECMWF model output run that i only just looked at shows the system really tighten up into a strong system upon landfall. From now until then the system really should do too much if that model is anything to go by. Im amazed by how much its forcasted to tighten up and strengthen a day before landfall. Also the shear size that it could be....

[gigabite]

I haven't seen any discussion on TV or the Internet about what might happen once the storm enters the area between Lat 30 & 35 where the 26 C contour is relatively shallow. How much degradation to the core do you think will occur?

[GoneBabyGone]

So...what should I be expecting in Jersey City, NJ at this point? I'm in London for work and scheduled to fly back 10/31. I need to decide basically...now...whether to stick to that date, delay it, or head back early and try to prepare my home.

Kind of worried.

[StormingB81]

Looks like here they are only forecasting 35-40mph winds

[YB2010]

here is another tidbit for your chad evaluation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFAsyYnTkIw

Personally I think Chad is a good Met, and was possibly considering his audience and other factors when making the tweet. One of the concerns potential complacency with people of the east coast. With Irene in our recent minds, and the comparisons vs. potential. That to me would explain so much thought.

Anyway, Carol Costello is not the best example to use to show someone losing the glue and call to question their judgement. She's pretty much a regular troll on CNN for her guests.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfsQhtEvH7g

[Frank2]

I haven't seen any discussion on TV or the Internet about what might happen once the storm enters the area between Lat 30 & 35 where the 26 C contour is relatively shallow. How much degradation to the core do you think will occur?

Good morning,

Folks in the NE have to understand that Sandy is quickly losing it's tropical characteristics, and if and when it makes landfall it is forecast to be a strong low pressure center - but not a hurricane...

P.S. Glad I stuck to my guns here late yesterday afternoon regarding our weather here in South Florida - we spent a very quiet night in suburban Fort Lauderdale - light winds and scattered showers...

Frank