ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[HurrMark]

Jeez...this definitely does not look like a pure tropical cyclone now...I wonder if it is prematurely transforming...we all knew it was going to happen, but was it going to happen this early?

[GCANE]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxsKpHzuunE&feature=share&list=UUJalVvzDyEpGjD4HtnOVkVA[/youtube]

[GoneBabyGone]

Jeez...this definitely does not look like a pure tropical cyclone now...I wonder if it is prematurely transforming...we all knew it was going to happen, but was it going to happen this early?

Is a premature transformation a good thing or bad thing?

[wxman57]

Jeez...this definitely does not look like a pure tropical cyclone now...I wonder if it is prematurely transforming...we all knew it was going to happen, but was it going to happen this early?

I see the same thing and have been saying in the office that it may not be too tropical by the time it passes through the Bahamas. On the satellite loop, I can see a mid-level center racing off to the NE of the LLC (near 28.5N/74.5W). Looks decidedly non-tropical now.

[WeatherGuesser]

General media is really cranking up the coverage now.

[Frank2]

Jeez...this definitely does not look like a pure tropical cyclone now...I wonder if it is prematurely transforming...we all knew it was going to happen, but was it going to happen this early?

Actually, it began the transition as soon as it left the Cuban coast **POOF** - at that time it lost it's very deep convection and it never did return - apparently summer is only found in the Caribbean at this point...

The problem now is that what's left is forecast to become a very deep low center that is still forecast to make landfall somewhere along the mid-Atlantic coast - but the media will continue to pound on the "Hurricane Sandy" theme as long as they can...

I worked in the weather forecasting business for 5 years, and really a good part of it is like show business - weather unto itself is usually a pretty benign subject unless severe weather happens, and when it does the media makes the most of it for ratings sake...

Sure, the current situation can be dangerous and it's important that they let everyone know the danger potential, but they'll put as much hyper into the situation as they can, for as long as they can...

Again, not to minimize the situation this morning, but Sandy is no longer the Sandy that struck Santiago de Cuba 24 hours ago - hopefully the media will help the public understand this important fact...

Frank

[GCANE]

Core at 4C, but looking very extra-tropical.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 0_TANO.GIF

[CrazyC83]

Jeez...this definitely does not look like a pure tropical cyclone now...I wonder if it is prematurely transforming...we all knew it was going to happen, but was it going to happen this early?

Is a premature transformation a good thing or bad thing?

No significant difference.

[CrazyC83]

IMO, I would change the status to a Subtropical Cyclone at 11. It is non-frontal but clearly non-tropical in apperance and structure.

[Weatherguy173]

still tropical apparently

[HurrMark]

Jeez...this definitely does not look like a pure tropical cyclone now...I wonder if it is prematurely transforming...we all knew it was going to happen, but was it going to happen this early?

I see the same thing and have been saying in the office that it may not be too tropical by the time it passes through the Bahamas. On the satellite loop, I can see a mid-level center racing off to the NE of the LLC (near 28.5N/74.5W). Looks decidedly non-tropical now.

So it sounds like you were expecting it...this is not surprising if you think about it because extratropical transition takes place late OCT at this latitude for most storms Frankenstorm or not. The questions are...did the NHC expect this transformation? Will this affect the forecast? And if it is indeed XTROP, will this still be carried by the NHC? My guesses are possibly, probably not, and yes (for continuity).

[WeatherGuesser]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

[jlauderdal]

I haven't seen any discussion on TV or the Internet about what might happen once the storm enters the area between Lat 30 & 35 where the 26 C contour is relatively shallow. How much degradation to the core do you think will occur?

Good morning,

Folks in the NE have to understand that Sandy is quickly losing it's tropical characteristics, and if and when it makes landfall it is forecast to be a strong low pressure center - but not a hurricane...

P.S. Glad I stuck to my guns here late yesterday afternoon regarding our weather here in South Florida - we spent a very quiet night in suburban Fort Lauderdale - light winds and scattered showers...

Frank

we had a couple of brief power outages last night, wind bent a basketball pole in half down the street, it was sturdy looking but old so probably not in the greatest shape...im close to the beach, frank you are probably farther west, saw a1a flooding on local news, blowing sand as was expected..seems like they nailed the forecast as far as conditions across south florida from east to west...radar lit up with some squalls offshore as expected..looking much brighter now than yesterdy afternoon, maybe see some sun today that could energize the atmosphere




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[Frank2]

...im close to the beach, frank you are probably farther west, saw a1a flooding on local news, blowing sand as was expected..seems like they nailed the forecast as far as conditions across south florida from east to west...radar lit up with some squalls offshore as expected..looking much brighter now than yesterdy afternoon, maybe see some sun today that could energize the atmosphere

Hi jlauderdal,

Yes, Cooper City/Southwest Ranches (east of I-75)...

As you said the skies look much brighter now than what we had yesterday - good bye to Sandra Dee (lol)...

[SFLcane]

All the weather associated with sandy remains on its eastern side so if your not in one of the squalls your ok. I suspect those TS warnings and wind watches will be removed around SE Florida later this morning if not sooner. Heavy rain threat is about over.

Now waiting on cool change coming. :0)

[jlauderdal]

All the weather associated with sandy remains on its eastern side so if your not in one of the squalls your ok. I suspect those TS warnings and wind watches will be removed around SE Florida later this morning if not sooner. Heavy rain threat is about over.

Now waiting on cool change coming. :0)

feels very cool today, not surprising considering the setup, squalls seem to be building and moving onshore...next week we finally transition to fall, yippee, its been a very wet rainy season

[SFLcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... y/rgb0.jpg

[HurrMark]

Core at 4C, but looking very extra-tropical.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 0_TANO.GIF

This was at 01Z...so 9 PM last night. I wonder what the current profile is.

[tolakram]

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[wxman57]

Jeez...this definitely does not look like a pure tropical cyclone now...I wonder if it is prematurely transforming...we all knew it was going to happen, but was it going to happen this early?

I see the same thing and have been saying in the office that it may not be too tropical by the time it passes through the Bahamas. On the satellite loop, I can see a mid-level center racing off to the NE of the LLC (near 28.5N/74.5W). Looks decidedly non-tropical now.

So it sounds like you were expecting it...this is not surprising if you think about it because extratropical transition takes place late OCT at this latitude for most storms Frankenstorm or not. The questions are...did the NHC expect this transformation? Will this affect the forecast? And if it is indeed XTROP, will this still be carried by the NHC? My guesses are possibly, probably not, and yes (for continuity).

Yes, I was expecting it. Some of the younger forecasters here doubted me, thinking it couldn't happen that quickly. Will be interesting to see how the NHC handles it. Situation is not do dissimilar to the "Perfect Storm" which happened almost on the same dates back in 1991.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsXQ0fusI_M

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/perfectsto ... ps_an.html

http://web.archive.org/web/201012041355 ... oct26.html