ATL: SANDY - Models

[stephen23]

Euro looks like delmarve peninsula again. Can't really tell the pressure. Last pressure before landfall was 932.

[Cyclenall]

The last 3 GFS runs, last 2 CMC runs, and last NOGAPS runs are real doomsday scenarios for NYC, it would literally be the worst disaster in US history if verified (IMO). My attention is now nearly 100% after yesterday, just days ago it wasn't even 15%. For goodness sakes, the 12z GFS has a 940 mb terrorcore right into Long Island and takes up half the US. I would think this would make the 1993 Storm of the Century, 1991 Perfect Storm, Hurricane Irene, and the 1992 Nor'Easter look like NOTHING. Specifically the latest GFS runs, if that were in the middle of winter that would probably end up being worse than the worst blizzard on record that being the Great 1888 Blizzard. The slow motion at the end and the loops over NYC are the stuff of fantasy for snow-lovers. Like others, I'm in total amazement of the continuous doom potentials the models are throwing out, never ever seen anything like it. The models thread should have over 200 pages now based on how INSANE the runs are.

On another note, does anyone know why none of these models go below 930.5 mb for Sandy? I'm just waiting for something to enter the 920 mb zone.

The 00Z is my worst case scenario

Are you actually worried about your location in relation to this? I'm not sure what the effects would be in Ontario but some of these trends say we will get smacked too.

That GFS run is something else. Heads for Rhode Island, then travels westward along/south of Long Island before making landfall on NYC...then heads south and east, does a loop and makes another landfall in Rhode Island. Anyone up for scuba diving the lost city of New York? Good grief!

I'm up for it.

Pressure down to 965.4mb!

Is that the current intensity now for Sandy? I was just thinking the prime time would be now for re-strengthening so its cranking already everyone!!

Euro showing 957mb in 24 hrs and 940mb in 48 hrs.

No words, just no words. Wow, wow, wow, wow, wow, wow, wow, wow, wow...

[brunota2003]

I wonder if the Euro is deepening Sandy too fast and that is drawing her more westward? I know BAM-Deep was going into coastal NC earlier.

[Cyclenall]

On another note, does anyone know why none of these models go below 930.5 mb for Sandy? I'm just waiting for something to enter the 920 mb zone.

Scratch that, the 12z GFDL model run hit the EC as a 924.9 mb Ultra-Bomb!! Another first. Then, the 00z HWRF run had Sandy at a mind-numbing 922.9 mb and then made landfall at 929 mb!! A new record for lowest intensity for non-tropical entity being depicted by a model like that. I believe if that were to come true that would only be less than 1 mb away from the world record for lowest pressure in an Extratropical cyclone.

The CMC is more north but a funky solution that is currently an outlier. It gyro-circles around itself 4 times and then gets flung westwards quickly into Nova Scotia. The 00z NOGAPS is the same with its doomsday stuff.

[KWT]

Anything below 930mbs in the N.Atlantic is exceptionally rare. I have my doubts about whether this one will get quite that low, though it does look like its going to get a big top up in about 24-48hrs.

Still if it were to go sub 930mbs like a few models have hinted, then firstly it'll deffo be Extra-tropical, and secondly it'll be only the 6th EVER to go below 930mbs in the N.Atlantic, so exceptionally rare event.

PS, the lowest pressure ever recorded in the N.Atlantic for a ET storm was 914mbs in 1993, though there were some unconfirmed reports of something closer to 910mbs.

[GoneBabyGone]

Lots of discussions of runs...gfs, gfdl, an obscure [at least to this extreme amateur] "00z"...

Can we make sure to include links whenever possible for those who may not know exactly where to look?

[HurrMark]

Lots of discussions of runs...gfs, gfdl, an obscure [at least to this extreme amateur] "00z"...

Can we make sure to include links whenever possible for those who may not know exactly where to look?

Sorry...the 00Z was me. That was the GFS. I don't know how to plot images, but I could supply links...

[cycloneye]

Lots of discussions of runs...gfs, gfdl, an obscure [at least to this extreme amateur] "00z"...

Can we make sure to include links whenever possible for those who may not know exactly where to look?

You can see all the models in one place at this site.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[GoneBabyGone]

Lots of discussions of runs...gfs, gfdl, an obscure [at least to this extreme amateur] "00z"...

Can we make sure to include links whenever possible for those who may not know exactly where to look?

You can see all the models in one place at this site.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Thank you!

[CrazyC83]

GFS and Euro are still far apart in terms of landfall location and especially post-landfall movement. What to believe, what to believe.

[RVAHudson]

06Z GFDL looks very Euro-ish as well... Shoots a 932mb storm across the Delmarva into VA... Ugh.

[tolakram]

Latest GFS and Euro graphics. Closest pass to Florida and east coast and eventual landfall graphics.









Model pages:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

and

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

Remember not to directly embed images using the IMG tag from these sites, but you are welcome to post links to the images. Thanks!

[angelwing]

Purple/black still a bullseye on me

[RVAHudson]

What times does the Euro run?

[GCANE]

According to GFS, Sandy has made the transition to an asymmetric warm core.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 606/6.html

[tolakram]

This afternoon, eastern time, around 2 or 3 PM.

[x-y-no]

What times does the Euro run?

Two runs daily - 0z and 12z. Data rolls out about 2 - 2:30 EST (am and pm respectively)

[CrazyC83]

Question: why do the models want to all send the storm due west approaching landfall, and not northwest like the official track?

[HurrMark]

Question: why do the models want to all send the storm due west approaching landfall, and not northwest like the official track?

The 00Z GFS still takes it north after landfall...it is a compromise most likely

[Bizzles]

Purple/black still a bullseye on me

I know that feel...