ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank2]

Good Sandy photo (above) - you should send it to TWC...

[fsusurfer]

mentioned yesterday i'm supposed to leave for savannah for a weekend vacation this morning... sure would feel better if it stopped taking the NW path it's currently on...

[GCANE]

Good pool of high CAPE air (3000) to the east of the LLC.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

Since going extra-trop, shear induced MCS development will be a factor.

Helicity is off the scale to the north of the LLC.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

Bottom line, very strong and pulsating MCS's should persist.

In fact a cell was firing nearly off the scale rain rates at 10:15Z

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... ntic.0.jpg

[HurrMark]

Yes, I was expecting it. Some of the younger forecasters here doubted me, thinking it couldn't happen that quickly. Will be interesting to see how the NHC handles it. Situation is not do dissimilar to the "Perfect Storm" which happened almost on the same dates back in 1991.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsXQ0fusI_M

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/perfectsto ... ps_an.html

http://web.archive.org/web/201012041355 ... oct26.html

At this point, given all the coverage, I would find it difficult to think the NHC would not continue to write advisories. Many people will get very confused if they hear this is not a tropical cyclone. My guess is that it will "split the difference" and call it subtropical storm Sandy at some point...and in post-analysis call it X-TROP.

[Frank2]

At this point, given all the coverage, I would find it difficult to think the NHC would not continue to write advisories. Many people will get very confused if they hear this is not a tropical cyclone. My guess is that it will "split the difference" and call it subtropical storm Sandy at some point.

Yes, the media hype is more intense at this point that the system itself, and the NHC will have to decide how to best handle when it comes to public advisories - as others have said, likely they will make it extra-tropical today, but the problem as we all know is that when the public hears that they immediately decide that since it's no longer a hurricane the danger is over, but as we also know that is not true, so a difficult situation here...

Frank

[tolakram]

Latest, wider view



live zoom 2 loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

live zoom1 loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[tolakram]

Hi res, 12:25Z, 8:25AM EDT

[hurricaneCW]

So when is recon flying out again?

[wxman57]

So when is recon flying out again?

Recon is there now, it just made its first pass through the center. You can view the plotted recon reports here as they come in:

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/

[HurrMark]

At this point, given all the coverage, I would find it difficult to think the NHC would not continue to write advisories. Many people will get very confused if they hear this is not a tropical cyclone. My guess is that it will "split the difference" and call it subtropical storm Sandy at some point.

Yes, the media hype is more intense at this point that the system itself, and the NHC will have to decide how to best handle when it comes to public advisories - as others have said, likely they will make it extra-tropical today, but the problem as we all know is that when the public hears that they immediately decide that since it's no longer a hurricane the danger is over, but as we also know that is not true, so a difficult situation here...

Frank

It is kind of the opposite of what happened in 1991...the Perfect Storm would have been called Hurricane 'Henri' in almost all circumstances but that was a very unusual situation that would have caused too much confusion. And in 91, we didn't have the wall-to-wall coverage we do now...there was CNN but not everyone had cable, and even then it was a totally different animal (none of the Extreme Impact Weather Center stuff they have today).

[HPC]

Observations: 2.4 miles inland, Jupiter, FL. (local time, wind and today's rainfall data)
01:15__ Current(mph):21.3__ CurrentGust(mph):25.0__ MaxGustToday(mph):30.0__ RainToday(in):0.00
02:15__ Current(mph):11.0__ CurrentGust(mph):21.0__ MaxGustToday(mph):30.0__ RainToday(in):0.13
03:15__ Current(mph):14.0__ CurrentGust(mph):23.4__ MaxGustToday(mph):30.0__ RainToday(in):0.13
04:15__ Current(mph):21.6__ CurrentGust(mph):26.6__ MaxGustToday(mph):30.0__ RainToday(in):0.15

05:15__ Current(mph):19.7__ CurrentGust(mph):24.8__ MaxGustToday(mph):30.0__ RainToday(in):0.15
06:15__ Current(mph):07.6__ CurrentGust(mph):22.0__ MaxGustToday(mph):30.0__ RainToday(in):0.20
07:15__ Current(mph):19.6__ CurrentGust(mph):25.4__ MaxGustToday(mph):30.0__ RainToday(in):0.24
08:15__ Current(mph):11.0__ CurrentGust(mph):19.0__ MaxGustToday(mph):30.0__ RainToday(in):0.34

[x-y-no]

Well, Sandy seems to have passed us by here in Fort Lauderdale. Still have low clouds moving at a decent clip, but pretty calm at ground level. We did have some surge, but less than a foot - although that's enough to just about put our dock underwater. Here's the morning scene in my back yard:



It has clouded over again since that was taken.

[jlauderdal]

Well, Sandy seems to have passed us by here in Fort Lauderdale. Still have low clouds moving at a decent clip, but pretty calm at ground level. We did have some surge, but less than a foot - although that's enough to just about put our dock underwater. Here's the morning scene in my back yard:

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/21561294/2012-1 ... .58.58.jpg

It has clouded over again since that was taken.

clean those sticks off the table

looking very dark here again after the sun, typical of squally weather

[tomboudreau]

I know everyone is really concerned the coastal and the major cities up and down the east coast, but am I really going to need to be concerned with a snowstorm out of this system? When was the last time, that question was asked during a storm like this?

[HurrMark]

I know everyone is really concerned the coastal and the major cities up and down the east coast, but am I really going to need to be concerned with a snowstorm out of this system? When was the last time, that question was asked during a storm like this?

Per the NWS, there could be snows in your area Monday...although it looks like just a mix.

The unusual circumstance with this storm is that the further southwest you go, the greater the chances for snow.

[SFLcane]

Latest, wider view

[img ]http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/5843/zzsandy.jpg[/img]

live zoom 2 loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

live zoom1 loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Are you aware of were i could find some cuban radar loops of when sandy went under rapid-intensification? Thanks

[HurrMark]

By the way, if this is a hurricane at landfall (operationally, it may be, but I don't think post-analysis), and hits the state of Delaware, it will be the first time that a hurricane strikes that state. There actually has been some relatively recent precedence for a Delmarva landfall from the southeast:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Danielle_%281992%29

But this is a much different animal from Danielle in 92.

[canes04]

I know this may seem a little insensitive to the NE folks. But has anyone heard if the Dolphins/Jets game will be cancelled on Sunday?
Good luck and be safe up there. I spoke with my family on Long Island and they have started there preps.

GO FINS!!

[HurrMark]

I know this may seem a little insensitive to the NE folks. But has anyone heard if the Dolphins/Jets game will be cancelled on Sunday?
Good luck and be safe up there. I spoke with my family on Long Island and they have started there preps.

GO FINS!!

The Jets and Eagles play at 1 PM, so my guess is that the games will still go on...although wind will probably play an impact.

[wxman57]

By the way, if this is a hurricane at landfall (operationally, it may be, but I don't think post-analysis), and hits the state of Delaware, it will be the first time that a hurricane strikes that state. There actually has been some relatively recent precedence for a Delmarva landfall from the southeast:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Danielle_%281992%29

But this is a much different animal from Danielle in 92.

There's no way this will be tropical at landfall.