Texas Fall 2012

[gpsnowman]

Yes Porta same here in North Texas. Maybe late this afternoon for the front to come here. Warm to start and cool and windy to end today. Cant wait to feel that air. Kind of quiet on these pages with the front approaching. Where is Cap n Crunch and his Halloween Fall/Winter outlook?

[Portastorm]

Yes Porta same here in North Texas. Maybe late this afternoon for the front to come here. Warm to start and cool and windy to end today. Cant wait to feel that air. Kind of quiet on these pages with the front approaching. Where is Cap n Crunch and his Halloween Fall/Winter outlook?

Very good question, gp! I haven't seen the Capn' in quite some time. He has his famous Halloween analog idea in that how Halloween ends up in DFW against the norms is how the winter will go. But I'm with ya on the "can't wait to feel that air." It's going to be wonderful after the humidity and above average temps of late.

At 9 am, it was 36 degrees in Dumas with a north wind gusting to near 40 mph ... 72 here in Austin. Heh. Get ready, folks!

[weatherdude1108]

Bring it! This humidity/warmth has literally gotten me sick.

The Amarillo office mentioned in their FREEZE WARNING: "A WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S."

[gpsnowman]

Ahhh yes, Dumas. Dalhart, Dumas, Amarillo, Childress, Witchita Falls. Cities we all love to hear before a strong cold front arrives.

[gpsnowman]

Childress at 9:53 is 52 degrees with a north wind at 26 mph. Wichita Falls is 68 with south wind.

[Portastorm]

Because this is a shallow cold airmass, my understanding is that we will see surface frontal passage and that the 850mb front lags behind by several hours. Think of it in terms of atmospheric strata ... one thin layer of cold air and a thicker layer of cold air slides over it and deepens the cold several hours later.

The true classic "blue northers" we see are fronts that usually come like a wall of cold. This one ain't it.

[Portastorm]

Ahhh yes, Dumas. Dalhart, Dumas, Amarillo, Childress, Witchita Falls. Cities we all love to hear before a strong cold front arrives.

Yep ... you know what season it is around here when we're watching temps in those cities!

[Ntxw]

Front is on the doorstep of Denton and Tarrant counties, much anticipated fanfare

Halloween now looks like will be dry with evening temps in the lower 60s to upper 50s, as possible split flow storm will hold off a few days longer. Temperatures should remain below average and to near normal most of next week and the foreseeable future with NW flow.

[Tireman4]

[quote="Ntxw"]Front is on the doorstep of Denton and Tarrant counties, much anticipated fanfare

Question. With the front flying through ( I know it slows down at night due to meteorological jargon stuff...LOL), do you think Houston getting it by 5-6 am still looks safe?

[Ntxw]

Question. With the front flying through ( I know it slows down at night due to meteorological jargon stuff...LOL), do you think Houston getting it by 5-6 am still looks safe?

Yeah, it's moving about 30mph so from Dallas to Houston that would be roughly 8 hours. anytime between Midnight and 3am for sure. Models have a NNW wind shift at IAH by 3am but I'm pretty certain it could be sooner than that. It will likely drop from 70 to near 60 after passage.

[weatherdude1108]

If you look at WunderMap, and select "Temperature/Wind" as the option, you can definitely tell where the front is. There is a line on the radar image approaching Brady at 2:10 pm CST. At that time, it was 81 degrees in Brady, and 66 degrees in Ballinger.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... in%2c%20TX

[Ntxw]

Post front > Pre front. It feels amazing out there with a strong gusts! I love it! Come on winter.

[gboudx]

Post front > Pre front. It feels amazing out there with a strong gusts! I love it! Come on winter.

So far it's been a nice 20 degree drop from 77 to 57 in Rockwall. Glad I planned ahead and brought a jacket to wear home. I still may open the sunroof though.

[WacoWx]

Been waiting on this front for a while. 63 here in Irving.

Has there been any sort of Winter Weather outlook posted in the recent past for the upcoming months? I would really like to have something to look fwd to this coming winter, unlike last (non) winter.

[Terri]

You know you are desparate when you are sitting outside after work and both you and your husband start dancing around outside when the wind shifts... Hope no one was looking!

[Portastorm]

Woke up in Austin to battleship gray steel skies, a north breeze, and an air temp of 55 degrees. Ah, what a beautiful thing!

[Tireman4]

Woo Hoo. Overcast and 63. Glory be. My running will be so thankful. Goodbye Indian Summer!!!!

[Ntxw]

That wind really gets ya. I tried going on a stroll without a jacket and payed the price. I wonder if wxman57 is enjoying this beautiful weather!?

[Ntxw]

Our next focus after a quiet few days will not be so much on the cold air, but a strong potent slow moving cutoff low resulting from split flow. Gaining good confidence a heavy rain (winter style) set up with lots of overrunning could be in order to begin the new month. Models suggest very strong vorticity with lots of lift and a splitting jet with southern plains possibly being the front entrance region.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Our next focus after a quiet few days will not be so much on the cold air, but a strong potent slow moving cutoff low resulting from split flow. Gaining good confidence a heavy rain (winter style) set up with lots of overrunning could be in order to begin the new month. Models suggest very strong vorticity with lots of lift and a splitting jet with southern plains possibly being the front entrance region.

I know it's still far out, but is 'winter' precip a possibility?
Thank you