Global model runs discussion

[blp]

Here is another look at the GFS long-range 348 hours from now on Oct. 29th (first image). The low shows up at 240 hours on Oct. 24th in the SW Caribbean (second image):

\http://imageshack.us/a/img99/4836/18zgfstropical850mbvort.gif[/img]
http://imageshack.us/a/img38/4836/18zgf ... mbvort.gif[/img]

Gatorcane, even the Euro is seeing it at 240hrs. This development looks probable given the strong mjo pulse we will be seeing as well as climatology. I don't think it will get very strong because the caribbean has been hostile all year and vertical stability continues to be very weak.

12z Euro:


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MJO:


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Vertical Instability:



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[KUEFC]

And again the 00z GFS shows something different where is the consistency?

[cycloneye]

And again the 00z GFS shows something different where is the consistency?

That is what long range timeframes bring. That is why I prefer to look at the models below 144 hours as the developments and tracks are more precise.

[blp]

And again the 00z GFS shows something different where is the consistency?

That is what long range timeframes bring. That is why I prefer to look at the models below 144 hours as the developments and tracks are more precise.

You are right and historically model outputs have been pretty inconsistent outside of seven days. The problem comes in when you are a weather enthusiast and you get tempted to look at the long range and just because you see a few runs you think something might happen.

06z GFS has pushed back development to 264hrs now.
00z ECMWF has dropped development.
00z CMC is still stuck on starting development at 240hrs.

I think instead of focusing on a paticular low I think what this shows me is that the MJO will be an active force in getting something going. There will be too much upward motion and the waters will be warm. Let's see how this plays out.

[Dean4Storms]

Between the lowering pressures across the Gulf and Carib. and the MJO something is possible down there. I imagine the particulars are still a good week or better away.

[gatorcane]

The 00Z FIM starts developing something around 180 hours in the Central Caribbean and moves it NW. This is a bit different than the GFS and ECMWF which develop a low in the SW Caribbean and have it moving North or Northeast. I think the general takeaway is that some area of disturbed whether may develop mid to late next week somewhere in the Western/SW/Central Caribbean.

[KUEFC]

Or it may not? how reliable is the FIM? and ECMWF backed off from ANY development in its last run.

[KUEFC]

Although 12z GFS has it at 288 hours, and quite a worrying run for florida again.

[cycloneye]

Note=If any member is going to post model runs for a Western or SW Caribbean development,you can go to the Western Caribbean development thread. viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113958&p=2280531#p2280531

If any member wants to talk about the models in general like season performance etc, post here. We do this to have only one thread to post model runs for an area in particular when a thread is up in the Talking Tropics forum. When there is any topic,then model runs may be posted in this thread.

[gatorcane]

Besides the possible system in the SW Caribbean in the long-range, not much else to look at looking at the model guidance.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Long range GFS shows development in the Caribbean and moves it NE.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[cycloneye]

2012 season wants to keep going? Here is another view of the 12z GFS.

[weatherwindow]

2012 season wants to keep going? Here is another view of the 12z GFS.

Here is the Sat 10/27 00Z GFS....much weaker but significant 1000 mb storm in the Gulf of Honduras moving toward the Caymans...11/12

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal384.gif

[jlauderdal]

2012 season wants to keep going? Here is another view of the 12z GFS.

Here is the Sat 10/27 00Z GFS....much weaker but significant 1000 mb storm in the Gulf of Honduras moving toward the Caymans...11/12

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal384.gif

super long range gfs was good with sandy, wait and see again

[Caribwxgirl]

Anything further on the global models?

[cycloneye]

Anything further on the global models?

GFS on long range had development in the SW Caribbean but in past runs it has not appeared.

[Caribwxgirl]

Anything further on the global models?

GFS on long range had development in the SW Caribbean but in past runs it has not appeared.

Great that's what I want to hear.

[kunosoura]

It looks like the 00Z GFS might be trying to develop something east of the Bahamas in mid-November. I'm no expert though, don't know if this is actually tropical in nature... I guess we'll have to wait see if it continues to show this.

[CrazyC83]

Some early models had ex-Sandy redeveloping en route to Europe - any truth to that?

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is again with a SW Caribbean development on long range. If the ECMWF shows this when it is at 240 hours,then it would be credible.