ATL: SANDY - Models

[deltadog03]

EURO is further east this run...My guess its going to be closer to NYC this run

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro seems to have shifted east quite a bit, probably will have landfall farther north

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[capepoint]

cant get to the models from work....does the new run bring it any closer or further from Hatteras. Not getting much info here from the media, everyone is concentrating on the impact up north.....meanwhile I have flooding problems of my own to worry about. I'm on the south end of Pamlico sound..........

[deltadog03]

EURO is SAME landfall point as last night 00z run...just a different route...

[HurrMark]

EURO is SAME landfall point as last night 00z run...just a different route...

No, it is further north...00Z had landfall in Md.-Va...this one is a Del. solution.

[somethingfunny]

The Euro is explicitly depicting that Sandy will still have a warm core at landfall:

[GCANE]

12Z GFS is borderlining a symmetric warming core.

IMHO, very likely once convection picks back up.

Gotta remember, even though the water temps are cooler as Sandy moves north, the upper atmosphere is also cooler.

A cooler upper atmosphere kicks off stronger convection.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 612/3.html

[storm4u]

this is getting scary!

[GCANE]

The Euro is explicitly depicting that Sandy will still have a warm core at landfall:

Check SREF:

A 6C core at 500mb

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref ... _MEAN_SD__

[ROCK]

didnt see the 12Z CMC posted...holding serve...with a NYC/ Long Island entry...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[GoneBabyGone]

Have the models started to move in any one way that's good news or bad news for NYC?

E.g toward VA "good" news...toward NYC bad news. Having trouble following. Don't know which ones are expected to be the most reliable.

[FutureEM]

Does anyone have the 12z UKMET and 12z WRF?

[HurrMark]

Have the models started to move in any one way that's good news or bad news for NYC?

E.g toward VA "good" news...toward NYC bad news. Having trouble following. Don't know which ones are expected to be the most reliable.

This run was probably a little worse off for NYC...the GFS is slightly north over Long Island Sound rather than N Jersey and the Euro is slightly north over Del. instead of Md./Va. So the midpoint is back in Jersey, so it wouldn't surprise me to see a Jersey landfall at 5 PM.

[Laplacian]

Have the models started to move in any one way that's good news or bad news for NYC?

E.g toward VA "good" news...toward NYC bad news. Having trouble following. Don't know which ones are expected to be the most reliable.

This run was probably a little worse off for NYC...the GFS is slightly north over Long Island Sound rather than N Jersey and the Euro is slightly north over Del. instead of Md./Va. So the midpoint is back in Jersey, so it wouldn't surprise me to see a Jersey landfall at 5 PM.

I'm coming late to today's discussion, but I've tried to stay abreast of the situation the best I can.

I think I might change my handle to the ensemble guy...

The 51-member ECMWF ensemble forecast at 96 hours (from 12Z) shows "landfall" of the hybrid system at 12Z on Tuesday along the coast of New Jersey.

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... ica_96.gif

The left panel is the ensemble mean and the colors indicate the normalized standard deviation. The right panel is a higher resolution forecast with standard deviations indicated in color. The operational ECMWF has been less jumpy than the GFS, so my gut reaction is that its ensemble forecast is also superior.

[Ken711]

Have the models started to move in any one way that's good news or bad news for NYC?

E.g toward VA "good" news...toward NYC bad news. Having trouble following. Don't know which ones are expected to be the most reliable.

This run was probably a little worse off for NYC...the GFS is slightly north over Long Island Sound rather than N Jersey and the Euro is slightly north over Del. instead of Md./Va. So the midpoint is back in Jersey, so it wouldn't surprise me to see a Jersey landfall at 5 PM.

I'm coming late to today's discussion, but I've tried to stay abreast of the situation the best I can.

I think I might change my handle to the ensemble guy...

The 51-member ECMWF ensemble forecast at 96 hours (from 12Z) shows "landfall" of the hybrid system at 12Z on Tuesday along the coast of New Jersey.

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... ica_96.gif

The left panel is the ensemble mean and the colors indicate the normalized standard deviation. The right panel is a higher resolution forecast with standard deviations indicated in color. The operational ECMWF has been less jumpy than the GFS, so my gut reaction is that its ensemble forecast is also superior.

NHC's track still shows it over Delaware.

[somethingfunny]

Don't pay attention to the black line. In the cone is in the cone and impacts will still be severe outside of the cone.

[x-y-no]

18z GFS has landfall New Nork City at 87 hours. at lest 12 hours of 50 - 60 knot 10-meter winds straight up Long Island Sound ...

[ROCK]

18z GFS has landfall New Nork City at 87 hours. at lest 12 hours of 50 - 60 knot 10-meter winds straight up Long Island Sound ...

worst case scenario....."day after tomorrow" stuff right there...

[GCANE]

Very strong mid-level warm core near landfall. Click on 30-96 hour animation showing evolution

http://weatherbellmodels.com/weather/gf ... s_anim.gif

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue

[KBBOCA]

Are the new 00z models running yet? Is anyone gonna post them?

(sorry, although I'm a longtime member here, I don't know how... and my internet connection is not so great here in Africa to deal with lots of graphics.)

I still can't believe how quiet is in here. What a change from the Isaac models thread. (Maybe since I missed the first few days of posts about this storm due to work and travel, I should go back and reread those posts! It's feeling lonely around here tonight.)