ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Weatherguy173]

i live in northeast nj, what do you think the percentage chance i lose power is ? i have above ground wires.

Very Very high...99%

that makes my day...

[cycloneye]

11 PM Track.

[Weatherguy173]

now the storm is supposed to maintain tropical status inland. i don't understand why that will happen. it doesn't look tropical now.

[Weatherguy173]

looks like the track was eased north ever so slightly

[jeff]

On other boards, I'm seeing people say they're tired of the hype and stressed out by it and are just going to sit back and wait it out.
Probably not a real good idea depending on where they live.

[/quote]
[b]I spoke to many of my friends who live near the coast in Ocean City Maryland or Coastal Delaware today. The level of concern today is NOTHING like Irene last year. I'm not really sure why, but most of them were pretty scared and evacuated prior to Irene coming through. Most of them were not nearly as worried about this one...worried but not "i'm outta here" mode.


The usual cry wolf effect... Irene did not live up to the coastal surge hype or potential, but was instead more of an inland flood event. It is also late October and people have already turned hurricane season off except maybe in FL. The Social Science of why and how people respond to such low probability yet high impact events continues to be the key on how forecasters must convey the threats to spur actions. A forecaster could forecast a massive TC impact 120 hours out to perfection, but if no one understands what is being told to them or how it will affect them, then that forecast while accurate did not get the job done. There is no easy answer fix to this problem, but overhype by media of "lesser" storms can encourage failed expectations from a public standpoint.

[HarryPotter]

Anyone else notice that the "S" forecast locations after landfall in the 2300est update were black indicating "tropical" as opposed to white indicating "post-tropical?" Think it was an error?

[wxman57]

Where I live in Canada, people LAUGHED at me when I said there was a hurricane coming. Yet the models show immense wind on Monday night into Tuesday, with a peak Tuesday morning perhaps as high as 85 mph.

No way 85 mph. Maybe 35-45 mph.

[Weatherguy173]

Anyone else notice that the "S" forecast locations after landfall in the 2300est update were black indicating "tropical" as opposed to white indicating "post-tropical?" Think it was an error?

it was like that a few advisories ago also, i am not sure what they mean because it surely does not look tropical right now.

[jeff]

now the storm is supposed to maintain tropical status inland. i don't understand why that will happen. it doesn't look tropical now.

Map is wrong...NHC grids still have it ET at 96hrs

[ozonepete]

The ECMWF hit is worse for NYC in terms of surge, too. The winds will be primed to funnel water straight down the Long Island Sound, as well as from the south straight into the bottleneck of NYC.

You are exactly right, bru, as usual. That is a nightmare scenario for new York City and will fill up a lot of subway tunnels.

Looking at the models, with ECMWF occasionally visiting VA to Delaware, and GFS up near Long Island, I'm afraid that Sandy will end up splitting the middle of the proverbial uprights...which would put her hitting somewhere near southern to mid New Jersey. What kind of surge would the different areas be looking at? I know it is a worst case scenario, but as far as potential levels go?

And I have learned a lot here on S2K over the years It sure beats not knowing at all what is going on, and why. Learning things allows me to make my own choices, based off of the various opinions and information! And helps with learning the various threats I may, or may not, face. Who could ask for a better group of people to learn with, too?

The feeling and sentiment is mutual. we all learn a lot here from each other. Bru in a littlw while I will post a very good chart of flood zones and flood potential that NYC developed. I want to come up with a little text to preface it first.

And I agree with you on landfall. I am thinking the central Jersey coast which is an awful scenario.

[monicaei]

And, out of curiosity of the older members here, does anyone else think this kind of feels like the build up to Katrina? I know that the media is running around screaming the sky is falling (not really like Katrina, from what I remember), and not saying the hype is a bad thing, either...but the wording coming from the NWS, the pro-mets being seriously concerned, etc just kind of makes it eerily similar? The exception being that they aren't calling for sure death and destruction of anyone or anything outside, like NWS New Orleans did.

The HLS for Katrina from Slidell is what was needed to get people to respond to the impending danger...a 25-30 foot storm surge and 140-150mph winds at the time the statement was issued. We are not dealing with that in this case, but it will likely be a new "bad" or new "benchmark" storm for those that go through the area to the N of where the center moves inland where the Atlantic will plow inland. Beach erosion will be incredible and coastal damage from surge and massive wave action extreme.

Close to 2,000 Americans DIED in Hurricane Katrina, A major city was leveled to the ground. This storm has the POTENTIAL to be historic, but every storm that threatens the US needs to stop being compared to K. Unless you lived through it, stop comparing models to it

[CrazyC83]

Where I live in Canada, people LAUGHED at me when I said there was a hurricane coming. Yet the models show immense wind on Monday night into Tuesday, with a peak Tuesday morning perhaps as high as 85 mph.

No way 85 mph. Maybe 35-45 mph.

Winds at 925mb will be near or over 90 kt (105 mph) - that is only about 1,000 feet above the surface - and I live in a funnelling zone.

[CrazyC83]

And, out of curiosity of the older members here, does anyone else think this kind of feels like the build up to Katrina? I know that the media is running around screaming the sky is falling (not really like Katrina, from what I remember), and not saying the hype is a bad thing, either...but the wording coming from the NWS, the pro-mets being seriously concerned, etc just kind of makes it eerily similar? The exception being that they aren't calling for sure death and destruction of anyone or anything outside, like NWS New Orleans did.

The HLS for Katrina from Slidell is what was needed to get people to respond to the impending danger...a 25-30 foot storm surge and 140-150mph winds at the time the statement was issued. We are not dealing with that in this case, but it will likely be a new "bad" or new "benchmark" storm for those that go through the area to the N of where the center moves inland where the Atlantic will plow inland. Beach erosion will be incredible and coastal damage from surge and massive wave action extreme.

Close to 2,000 Americans DIED in Hurricane Katrina, A major city was leveled to the ground. This storm has the POTENTIAL to be historic, but every storm that threatens the US needs to stop being compared to K. Unless you lived through it, stop comparing models to it

No city is going to be leveled by this storm. There are many cities getting major impacts, but they would be more like Isaac in Louisiana (each) than Katrina.

[Weatherguy173]

some of the newer computer models show the tracks moving slightly north. A couple hit nj and some others have moved slightly north, just south of NJ. thoughts?

[ozonepete]

some of the newer computer models show the tracks moving slightly north. A couple hit nj and some others have moved slightly north, just south of NJ. thoughts?

I am waiting for the 00Z output from the GFS which we should have within the hour. My guess is on the central New Jersey coast right around Long Beach Island. Sorry, I know that's really bad for you but it is a good centerpoint at which the models keep pointing. I expect the NHC will keep shifting around 50 to 100 miles or so for the next few updates but will eventually settle in around that location.

[MegaMatch]

Another poster from AUS wishing you guys in the path of Sandy the best of luck! We're thinking of you.

[cycloneye]

now the storm is supposed to maintain tropical status inland. i don't understand why that will happen. it doesn't look tropical now.

Map is wrong...NHC grids still have it ET at 96hrs

They fixed it.

http://oi47.tinypic.com/14badx.jpg

[wxman57]

To be clear, I'm not predicting widespread destruction from winds when Sandy makes landfall. Inland winds will average 40-60 mph. That'a enough to produce about 100% power outages due to downed trees, power lines and power poles, as well as significant damage to signs and very weak structures (like carports). Buildings/homes should remain intact.

The storm tide will be another factor. It's hard to predict just how high the tides may get, as typical storm surge models like SLOSH won't work with a sub or extratropical storm like Sandy. Don't judge its surge potential by its max winds at landfall, it's wind field SIZE that determines surge height more than max winds. If Sandy hits in the right spot, it could flood NY City, including the subways.

If you live within 150 miles of the coast up there, then prepare for prolonged power outages. The hardest hit areas may lose power for weeks. Prepare!

[wxman57]

some of the newer computer models show the tracks moving slightly north. A couple hit nj and some others have moved slightly north, just south of NJ. thoughts?

Don't focus on point of landfall. Sandy will be so big that the worst wind and surge may be 100 miles from the center.

Bed time. Early day at work tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

To be clear, I'm not predicting widespread destruction from winds when Sandy makes landfall. Inland winds will average 40-60 mph. That'a enough to produce about 100% power outages due to downed trees, power lines and power poles, as well as significant damage to signs and very weak structures (like carports). Buildings/homes should remain intact.

The storm tide will be another factor. It's hard to predict just how high the tides may get, as typical storm surge models like SLOSH won't work with a sub or extratropical storm like Sandy. Don't judge its surge potential by its max winds at landfall, it's wind field SIZE that determines surge height more than max winds. If Sandy hits in the right spot, it could flood NY City, including the subways.

If you live within 150 miles of the coast up there, then prepare for prolonged power outages. The hardest hit areas may lose power for weeks. Prepare!

To add about the storm tide,another factor will be the new moon on Monday.