ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

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mred53
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Re: Re:

#1741 Postby mred53 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:13 am

GoneBabyGone wrote:
KBBOCA wrote:If this verifies...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/wav ... mation.gif

I'm speechless....
(Maybe THAT's why it's so quiet around here, everyone is dumbstruck! This is pretty hard to believe!)


Where is that making landfall? Tough to tell on my phone


Looks like it's going right up Delaware Bay.
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#1742 Postby lililing14 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:20 am

May I have an update, as to how the Orange County area of NY, will be? :(
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Re: Re:

#1743 Postby KBBOCA » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:24 am

GoneBabyGone wrote:
KBBOCA wrote:If this verifies...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/wav ... mation.gif

I'm speechless....
(Maybe THAT's why it's so quiet around here, everyone is dumbstruck! This is pretty hard to believe!)


Where is that making landfall? Tough to tell on my phone


I think South Jersey.

I saw a great comment somewhere, last night. Someone posted a model run, in which you couldn't see NJ (or NYC for that matter) because of the isobars, with the comment "Dang, I know NJ is under there somewhere."

Philly, NJ, NYC and Long Island look to be in for a world of trouble.
And then this thing just meanders inland and sort of stalls.

Terrifying, really.

NOTE: I am just an amateur!!! Please do not trust my comments or opinion. I hope I'm VERY WRONG. Pay attention to NHC, NWS and local emergency officials.
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Re:

#1744 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:44 am

KBBOCA wrote:If this verifies...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/wav ... mation.gif

I'm speechless....
(Maybe THAT's why it's so quiet around here, everyone is dumbstruck! This is pretty hard to believe!)


its quiet because there arent many members from the affected part of the country..just like there was very little action from anyone west of 80 the last few days...how many people in the NE even follow tropical weather
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Re:

#1745 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:47 am

lililing14 wrote:May I have an update, as to how the Orange County area of NY, will be? :(


Ask us again Tuesday.

----------------------

On the increased status .... that came a day or so before NHC expected, No?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1746 Postby T'Bonz » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:49 am

Some of us are still following, but just quiet. Sandy is gone from my area (Greater Ft. Lauderdale) but I'm still following it and the models with interest.

Had a laugh. My hometown, Pittsburgh, is now officially in the cone of doom (as a trop). WE didn't get in the cone of doom down here (and didn't even merit a trop watch since we're not on the coast), but my hometown is in the cone of doom? Priceless! LOL.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1747 Postby GoneBabyGone » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:50 am

T'Bonz wrote:Some of us are still following, but just quiet. Sandy is gone from my area (Greater Ft. Lauderdale) but I'm still following it and the models with interest.

Had a laugh. My hometown, Pittsburgh, is now officially in the cone of doom (as a trop). WE didn't get in the cone of doom down here (and didn't even merit a trop watch since we're not on the coast), but my hometown is in the cone of doom? Priceless! LOL.


Go Steelers!
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1748 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:53 am

Sobering email from Jeff Lindner, one of our pro-mets:
Historic storm system heading for the mid Atlantic and NE US.

Potentially life threatening destructive storm surge event for the New Jersey and New York coasts.


Discussion:

The transition of Sandy from a pure tropical cyclone toward more of mid-latitude cyclone has begun. Sandy is still located near the northern Bahamas this morning, but satellite and radar images along with recon data suggest that the system has made the expected turn toward the NNE and this motion should continue with an increase in forward speed. Aircraft data also shows the wind field is greatly expanding with TS force winds extending outward 435 miles from the center with the highest winds located across the western and northwestern flank of the circulation where sporadic deep convection is found.

Across the north Atlantic and the US, the upper air pattern continues to “block” with massive high pressure building over eastern Canada and a strong trough (our cold front) pressing into the eastern US. A shortwave over the western states this morning will swing through the base of the main trough and tilt it from SE to NW over the SE and mid Atlantic starting tomorrow. Sandy will become captured by this titling and instead of pushed out to sea, make a hard left turn (NW) back toward the US mid-Atlantic and NE US coast between the trough to her SW and the blocking high to her NE. Global guidance is in very good agreement on this pattern and in fact has very little spread in the track solution given the complex interactions that will be in place. Models show Sandy moving NW to WNW toward the New Jersey coast and making landfall Monday night or Tuesday morning and then slowing down as she moves inland.

As for intensity, Sandy is gradually taking on more and more mid latitude influences although her center core remains “warm” or tropical. Jet stream phasing with the system is starting to occur with temperature gradient developing on her outer flanks of the large circulation. As Sandy moves northward this process will intensify has the warm Caribbean air mass clashes with a very cold polar air mass resulting in strong baroclinic intensification. Sandy will also be located in the favorable region of the trough and jet stream axis to promote surface deepening of a cyclone. Models continue to advertise “incredibly” low pressures with the ECMWF showing a record 942mb low near landfall on the New Jersey coast which is an astounding 30mb lower than the 1991 Perfect Storm and 6mb lower than anything ever recorded in the NE US.

Given the continued very good model agreement on both track and the forecasted extreme low pressures, confidence is building that an extremely rare powerful storm system will impact the NE and mid-Atlantic coast from Sunday-Thursday.

Impacts:

Major travel disruption is likely as numerous major E coast airports will not be able to sustain operations and this will have ripple effects across the nation. Additionally, widespread power outages and down trees will greatly hamper surface and rail travel across the entire region with widespread and potentially prolonged impacts to commerce.

This will be a long duration multi-day event with prolonged impacts over the entire area from North Carolina to Canada and extending inland into the OH valley affecting some 55-65 million people.

Coastal flooding or storm surge flooding appears to be significant especially for the New Jersey and New York (NYC and Long Island) coasts. The angle of approach this storm will be taking from (SE to NW) strikes the coast at a right angle instead of the usual grazing by of the coast most storms in this region take (SW to NE or parallel to the coast). This direct hit on the coast will drive onshore winds and massive amounts of Atlantic seawater toward the central and northern New Jersey coast and into the “L” shaped New York Bight area of southern New York City and western Long Island (a worst case track for this area, that has never occurred before with this strong of a storm system). The fetch of wind across the entire north Atlantic will drive large waves and surge to the coast and this will last for several high tide cycles. Tides will be at their maximum due to the full moon on Monday. Massive beach erosion is likely with coastal structures experiences significant damage many to the point of total collapse. Seawater inundation will be extensive and widespread and long lasting and in some places potentially record setting. Due to the rare track of this storm, some locations that have never before experienced coastal flooding, may flood with this event.

Winds of 50-60mph with gust to 70-80mph will battered a wide area for 24-48 hours. Expect widespread tree damage and power outages which could rival some of the largest power outages ever in the US. The prolonged nature of the event will result in trees giving way over time as the ground saturates from the heavy rainfall. Winds will be higher in an near tall high rise buildings where funneling will take place. Structure damage will be mainly from trees falling into buildings and to roofs from the wind itself.

Rainfall amounts of 5-8 inches will be common over a very large area with totals of 8-12 inches over New Jersey into southern PA and New York. Isolated amounts of 15 inches are possible as the tropical moisture from Sandy’s air mass crashes into the eastern slopes of the mountains and a stalled frontal boundary. Rainfall of this magnitude over an area of steep terrain will produce life threatening flash flooding and major river flooding.

Ocean seas will be building to staggering heights over the next few days. Already buoys north of the Bahamas have been reporting 30 foot seas, and Wave Watch III guidance is maxed out at 42-48 foot seas over the NW Atlantic Ocean by early next week. The expanding area of strong winds of 50-60mph and the massive fetch of wind all the way from Europe will produce very large swells. Would not be surprised to see reports of wave greater than 50-60 feet over the NW Atlantic. Some of this wave action and energy will be directed toward the US coastline and this will worsen the beach erosion. Large wave setup will also trap water levels near the coast and worsen the coastal flooding threat.

On the extreme SW flank of the storm heavy wet snow will fall over parts of OH and WV with totals of 1-2 feet possible.

Power outages will likely last for 1-2 weeks or longer

Large scale evacuation orders for the New Jersey coast will be underway today with portions of New York also likely requiring evacuation due to the potential for coastal storm surge inundation.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1749 Postby stephen23 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:54 am

I know my sister went to nyc for playoffs and is still there on vacation and had no idea about the storm untill i told here this am. Her plane flight isnt untill tomorrow night. I wonder if planes will still be flying out tomorrow night or if they will get stuck there. It seems as if there are going to be lots of people taken by suprise by this storm
Last edited by stephen23 on Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#1750 Postby SevenTreesFarm » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:56 am

jlauderdal wrote:
KBBOCA wrote:If this verifies...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/wav ... mation.gif

I'm speechless....
(Maybe THAT's why it's so quiet around here, everyone is dumbstruck! This is pretty hard to believe!)


its quiet because there arent many members from the affected part of the country..just like there was very little action from anyone west of 80 the last few days...how many people in the NE even follow tropical weather


I've been glued to S2K for days now, and I'm in the PNW. I've lurked here for years, but never post since I'm not in an affected area. In fact I so rarely post I completely lost my sign in info and had to reregister.

I wasn't born yet for the Columbus Day storm of 1962, but it was another freak monster that made a huge impression on this part of the country. We get extratropical cyclones nearly every fall, and we're gearing up for another round this year. The El Nino has weakened to almost neutral, and that's statistically when we get the more extreme weather.

So yeah, I'm a foul weather junkie and I'm here :D
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1751 Postby windnrain » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:57 am

This storm is going to be retired...

Too many crazy things happening at once.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1752 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:58 am

vbhoutex wrote:Sobering email from Jeff Lindner, one of our pro-mets:

And yet we haven't heard much about evacuations or closing of the NYC subway. Who else has subways in the area? DC? Philly? Newark?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1753 Postby x-y-no » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:59 am

windnrain wrote:This storm is going to be retired...

Too many crazy things happening at once.


It would be retired on the Haiti and Cuba death tolls alone.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1754 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:00 am

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1755 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:03 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1756 Postby lester » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:03 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:Sobering email from Jeff Lindner, one of our pro-mets:

And yet we haven't heard much about evacuations or closing of the NYC subway. Who else has subways in the area? DC? Philly? Newark?


DC has an extensive subway system that covers DC, parts of Maryland and Virginia.

Philly has a subway system too and Newark's part of the overall state subway system if I remember correctly.

DC: http://www.wmata.com/

Philly: http://www.septa.org/

NJ: http://www.njnyrails.com/
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1757 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:06 am

stephen23 wrote:I know my sister and others are going to get trapped in nyc that traveled to watch the world series. I wonder hoe many extra people are there for the world series. My sistet didnt even know there was a storm coming untill this morning when i found out she was there. It appears there are a good amount of people who are going to get caught off guard untill its way to late to evac


If your sister traveled to NYC to watch the World Series, not only is she going to be in the middle of the storm ,but she is going to miss the World Series too. It is being played in Detroit and San Francisco. :double:
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1758 Postby ROCK » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:06 am

heres the kicker that most people dont realize...look at this wind swath!!!!

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450
MILES...725 KM.


105 miles of hurricane force winds over water means this thing is going to pile up some water somewhere....look at the TS range 450 miles!!!
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#1759 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:06 am

The Town of Islip ordered a mandatory evacuation for Fire Island to be completed by 2 p.m. Sunday. Supervisor Tom Croci declared a state of emergency for the town beginning at 8 a.m. Saturday.

LIPA spokesman Mark Gross said a decision has not been made yet on cutting the power to Fire Island. "We will coordinate with them [Suffolk County] and evaluate only after the evacuation is done," Gross said.


http://www.newsday.com/news/weather/li- ... -1.4159556
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1760 Postby Stephanie » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:07 am

Many of the members on this site from the Mid Atlantic and Northeast are not old enough to remember the Ash Wednesday, Columbus Day, 1962 or the Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938. There was also Hazel. These storms come along every what, 30 - 40 years? We've had our blizzards and Nor'easters but not direct hits from hurricanes.

People are making preparations around my area that I can see and the stores are packed. My township is cleaning up the leaves up and down the neighborhood streets that have been raked there by the residents as we're normally supposed to do. I'm glad to hear that NJ is lowering the reservoirs in anticipation of Sandy. No State of Emergency yet from the Governor, but he is having a press conference in North Wildwood, NJ I think right at this minute.

Lots of leaves have been falling already, almost as if the trees are sensing that they need to shed them NOW.
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