ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

I think DC could receive a direct hit if the track keeps moving South.

See my post above. The track isn't moving south, it's an interpolation issue between the 48hr and 72hr point. Won't be a straight line between those two points.

[tina25]

I'm wondering if they will order evacuations in NYC soon, and if so, which zones. I'm right on border of zone b and c.

[FutureEM]

There is going to be some pretty significant wave heights crashing ashore I saw a peak of 38ft.

I won't post the OPC advisory, but you can read it here:
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDOFFN02.shtml

[KBBOCA]

This briefing from the Mount Holly, NJ bureau of the NWS (8 a.m. Sat) is EXCELLENT.

Very clear, succinct and conveys serious threat without hype.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/pa ... iefing.pdf

Kudos to them. They are in the bullseye currently, along with the NY Metro area. May they find ways to get the info to all who need it.

[ROCK]

I think DC could receive a direct hit if the track keeps moving South.

your typical bouncing around with the models...The HWRF 06Z has this north of the GFDL into NYC.....the 06Z GFS right into NYC...

[cheezyWXguy]

I think DC could receive a direct hit if the track keeps moving South.

your typical bouncing around with the models...The HWRF 06Z has this north of the GFDL into NYC.....the 06Z GFS right into NYC...

yeah, seems like the models have spread out a little bit from a day or two ago. Not that it really matters considering the size...

[Frank2]

Forgive me for the hotlink (it's WV, anyway), but what do the Pro Mets see in this loop - to my eye the negatively-tilted trough might not be as negatively-tilted right now as some had believed it would be:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

P.S. I'd be interested to read their thoughts on this - perhaps that's one reason I've not been completely convinced that Sandy will do what they believe it will do - too many variables can change the outcome, despite model advances...

Frank

[CrazyC83]

If the trough is not as negatively tilted, that is a later turn and later landfall?

That may be true, I was supposed to get rain from the cold front starting last night, but it just started less than an hour ago.

[ROCK]

Forgive me for the hotlink (it's WV, anyway), but what do the Pro Mets see in this loop - to my eye the negatively-tilted trough might not be as negatively-tilted right now as some had believed it would be:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

P.S. I'd be interested to read their thoughts on this - perhaps that's one reason I've not been completely convinced that Sandy will do what they believe it will do - too many variables can change the outcome, despite model advances...

Frank

so Frank...let me get this straight you are totally against every model guidance we currently have at our disposal?

[Frank2]

so Frank...let me get this straight you are totally against every model guidance we currently have at our disposal?

Didn't say that - just not completely convinced, and haven't been all week...

The thing is - the left turn was promoted since 72 hours ago, and that means 144 hours total lapse time - as we know, model runs beyond 96 hours usually are not very accurate, or at the least the outcome changes from run to run...

That's my argument and perhaps that's why some comments mention that this morning one model said this and now says that - too many variables in such a complex situation - definitely not as easy as forecasting a westward moving hurricane in the tropics that is apporaching a trough - that's pretty easy forecasting...

Frank

[x-y-no]

Forgive me for the hotlink (it's WV, anyway), but what do the Pro Mets see in this loop - to my eye the negatively-tilted trough might not be as negatively-tilted right now as some had believed it would be:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

P.S. I'd be interested to read their thoughts on this - perhaps that's one reason I've not been completely convinced that Sandy will do what they believe it will do - too many variables can change the outcome, despite model advances...

Frank

I don't recall either the ECMWF or the GFS depicting a strong negative tilt this early. It's over the next two days that they did so.

[x-y-no]

so Frank...let me get this straight you are totally against every model guidance we currently have at our disposal?

Didn't say that - just not completely convinced, and haven't been all week...

The thing is - the left turn was promoted since 72 hours ago, and that means 144 hours total lapse time - as we know, model runs beyond 96 hours usually are not very accurate, or at the least the outcome changes from run to run...

That's my argument and perhaps that's why some comments this morning that one model said this and now says that - too many variables in such a complex situation - definitely not as easy as forecasting a westward moving hurricane in the tropics that is apporaching a trough - that's pretty easy forecasting...

Frank

Landfall is now well inside 72 hours. More like 60 hours at this point. The NW turn is inside of 48 hours. So to the extent that's your argument, it's irrelevant at this point.

EDIT: Also ECMWF has been extraordinarily consistent for many days now - GFS for a couple of days.

[wxman57]

Trof is not negatively-tilted yet. That'll come Sunday night/Monday.

[Frank2]

Yes, but if the trough remains more neutral then that'll change everything - me thinks that some at the NHC are beginning to wonder - just my thoughts, which can be totally wrong (lol), but interesting to see how this all turns out, for certain...

Frank

[HURRICANELONNY]

Grew up in Pa. but now live in Fl. I was talking to friends in central Pa.. Never have I ever seen growing up. A storm of this magnitude even coming remotely close to me. Usually they go out to sea this time of year. It has the ingredients of an epic storm but I hope it doesn't pan out. By the time it reaches my state they could have hurricane force winds. I've never felt that living there but sure have in Florida. I hope everyone up there is prepared. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[wxman57]

Yes, but if the trough remains more neutral then that'll change everything - me thinks that some at the NHC are beginning to wonder...

Nothing to indicate that will happen. There is tremendous model agreement now. Heck, even NOGAPS is on board.

[jrtalon]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_18.gif

I'm curious why the office track puts it to the west of most of the models?

[KBBOCA]

Possible storm scenarios for the DC area:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... _blog.html

[KBBOCA]

A scary storm-surge forecast for the NY Metro area based on the latest NHC track:
http://twitpic.com/b7v2s3/full

Also, just read that mandatory evacuations of Fire Island (barrier island on Long Island) have started
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2012/10/27/ ... re-island/

[psyclone]

This part of the discussion is interesting:

NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SUNDAY.

So no TS or hurricane warnings for the northeast U.S. I agree it won't be tropical, but people don't understand that a gale warning can mean very strong winds. I have some clients that keep asking "is it going to be a hurricane? We only take actions for hurricanes!". I say, no, it isn't going to be a hurricane, but it will have hurricane-force winds covering a larger area than some hurricanes.

Keep in mind the weather service uses a "hurricane force wind warning" to cover marine events of a non-tropical nature where winds exceed 65 knots. you see this most commonly in the alaska waters but i've seen the Taunton issue such warnings during big nor easter events. i suspect WFOs up the coast will be deploying these and strongly worded high wind warnings for inland locales. i think this will convey the threat well to those interested.