ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[hiflyer]

What the heck? My home is Ft Lauderdale but working up here in DC....grin. If models hold and goes in north of us should be the soft and colder side I believe...some forecasts have white stuff in the mountains... Press pretty good about high winds and trees taking out powerlines...however no tractor trailers on the side of the road selling generators like we get down in Florida.. Was here for Agnes in 72...went up into Central PA and all types of flooding afterwards coming down the Potomac...

[WeatherGuesser]

I was expecting at least TS Warnings for the Jersey coast areas by Sunday.

That won't happen now?

[KWT]

The other thing to remember is in these sorts of systems, the gusts could be far higher than sustained winds. In 1987 S.england had a system very much like this one, though it started from a high base in terms of pressure. That system bombed and really gave some parts a battering.

Sustained winds were around 55-60kts generally, but gusts were often in the 75-90kts range and the highest generally was around the 100kts mark. I suspect given the depth and size of this system, this will be a larger and stronger version of that...and that storm back then cost 2 billion pounds...so given this is 25 years later, hitting a larger area and proably shutting down New York for maybe a few days, I'm guessing that the eventual cost will be into the 10s of billions.

Be careful everyone, DON'T under-estimate these storms!!

[GCANE]

Trough axis is basically in the central plains.

SREF is showing the negative tilt to kick in tomorrow

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/index.php

[Evil Jeremy]

This is shaping up to be a monster. I have friends up at NYU, I have been warning them about this since Tuesday, and last night they said people still aren't preparing. I've been telling them to get their kits ready and prep for evacuation if necessary. These are going to be a historic couple of days.

[wxman57]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

I'm curious why the office track puts it to the west of most of the models?

See my posts above. NHC track only appears to be west of most of the models because they do not include any track point between 48 and 72 hrs.

[hurricanekid416]

hey i live in delaware and it seems like im the only one preparing so should i cut my lawn before the hurricane or keep it uncut so it can soak up some water

[Weatherguy173]

how does everyone feel about the current track? does anyone feel that it is a bit far south? or is it me?

[ROCK]

hey i live in delaware and it seems like im the only one preparing so should i cut my lawn before the hurricane or keep it uncut so it can soak up some water

it's not going to matter...but I would cut it now just because it will be jacked up afterwards with all the debris in it...just my 2 cents...

[ROCK]

how does everyone feel about the current track? does anyone feel that it is a bit far south? or is it me?

I am thinking Cape May up to Long Island as final destination....thats what guidance is suggesting anyway...

[GoneBabyGone]

http://goo.gl/maps/jbp9o

Approximately where I live.

Fortunately, I'm on a high (7-10) floor.

Should be prime viewing, though. Will take as many pics and vids as I can.

[Sanibel]

Sandy is expanding. I can see the outer cirrus disc to my NE. The wind is really kicking here.

[wxman57]

hey i live in delaware and it seems like im the only one preparing so should i cut my lawn before the hurricane or keep it uncut so it can soak up some water

I'd spend my time doing something more worthwhile - like purchasing extra gas for my generator, or buying a generator if you don't have one.

[xironman]

Yes, but if the trough remains more neutral then that'll change everything - me thinks that some at the NHC are beginning to wonder - just my thoughts, which can be totally wrong (lol), but interesting to see how this all turns out, for certain...

Frank

It is not just the trough, it's the block. See the 500mb high over Newfoundland, the storm has no choice but to go into the coast if the setup is at all like that. Classic east coast storm setup with a tropical booster shot, if was winter the midatlantic would be going crazy over the snow.

[Jimsot]

If this verifies...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/wav ... mation.gif

I'm speechless....
(Maybe THAT's why it's so quiet around here, everyone is dumbstruck! This is pretty hard to believe!)

its quiet because there arent many members from the affected part of the country..just like there was very little action from anyone west of 80 the last few days...how many people in the NE even follow tropical weather

Well here I am in Central NJ (Flemington) on our annual US vacation to see the kids and 'buy stuff'. I LIVE year round on Anguilla, so yeah I am really interested in this. Power permitting I will let you know how it is here. Having been in OMAR and EARL on Anguilla we know what to expect and likely can give some pointers to the folks in the condo development we are staying in, most have never seen anything like this might be.

[Terry]

TS force winds being reported in Sarasota/Venice area on west coast of FL.

[Evil Jeremy]

TS force winds being reported in Sarasota/Venice area on west coast of FL.

Here in Tampa, I wouldn't say we have TS winds, but it's defiantly the windiest day since Isaac.

[Weatherguy173]

if the path moves to central nj that could be difference in 4 inches of rain for me, especially because my basement is below the water table and my property collects water like a pool

[Weatherguy173]

the absolute majority of the ensembles go through NJ

[KBBOCA]

Here are the current "action" and "alert" areas shown in a recent graphic from the Weather Channel. Looks pretty accurate based on all I've been reading.



Disclaimer: I'm an AMATEUR! Pay attention to official forecasts and warnings, not me.

(edited to add my disclaimer)