ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[SevenTreesFarm]

Just one more comment about the quiet. I know there are very few members here from the N.E. But I *DID* think that a higher percentage of our members were true tropical enthusiasts, not just folks concerned about their own neck of the woods.

We've got maybe a historic storm happening with so many fascinating angles. I just am surprised that there aren't more pure weather enthusiasts here regardless of WHERE the storm is going to hit. It's not meant as a criticism or attack, I'm just very honestly surprised that there's not more desire to follow this storm.

I've been encouraging my ppl via facebook to get interested, but they just laugh and wait for me to 'translate' the info for them.

I'm up in the PNW btw. Near Bellingham, WA. We get our own extra-tropical cyclones & nor'easters...

[Portastorm]

"Sudden wall of water" -- what's he looking for, a flash flood?! Even a hurricane storm surge builds up and doesn't happen like a wall of water.

Oh well, as some have said, maybe he's trying to step up concern and not create panic on the outset. I hope so for his sake but more importantly, for the good folks of New York City.

[jlauderdal]

The quiet on this site and so many others (even Wunderground is much quieter than usual, though much more active than here) is really beginning to unnerve me. We've not even managed to fill a full 10 pages here in 12 hours today...!!!!

the folks in the northeast dont even know about this board...they dont follow these types of systems that closely because its so rare to be affected...they know what is going on but will get info from other sources...also, the system is offshore, expect more action when it gets closer

you're both correct. The north might not visit hurricane blogs due to not being involved in the past and don't know this is available. It's interesting because even a cat 1 on the east coast would be at least a few hundrend pages by now...I think this storm is so different nobody knows what to think..

its really all about location and who is in the game as far as being affected and then the people that are really serious about following tropical systems regardless of whether they are being affected or not

[CrazyC83]

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: We are not ordering any evacuations as of this time, in any part of the city.

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: Although we’re expecting a large surge of water, it will be a slower pile-up and not a sudden wall of water.

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: Even though we are not ordering evacuations, conditions will be dangerous during the storm. The safest thing to do is stay inside.

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: We haven’t made a decision yet as to whether schools will be open on Monday. We will make that decision and announce it tomorrow.

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: Because of the hazards posed by high winds, all City parks will be closed after 5 PM tomorrow.


Wow...just unbelievable! Not evacuating, and commenting it is a "slow pile up" and not a tsunami type surge? 10 feet, is 10 feet...regardless of how fast it comes in!

This could be the downfall of Bloomberg and Company. I would have evacuated Zone A at least right now, and also closed schools and announced a transit shutdown for late evening tomorrow...

[brunota2003]

Irene was less than a foot away from topping the seawall (5 feet to overtop, 4.13 feet for Irene). Chances are, Sandy will overtop the seawall (and then some, if those thinking up to 10 or 12 feet are right), flood a good portion of the city and the subway system. But, it isn't a sudden wall of water, so we'll be okay!

Ugh. They need roughly 48 hours to evacuate, that time is ticking away...rapidly!

[CrazyC83]

Irene was less than a foot away from topping the seawall (5 feet to overtop, 4.13 feet for Irene). Chances are, Sandy will overtop the seawall (and then some, if those thinking up to 10 or 12 feet are right), flood a good portion of the city and the subway system. But, it isn't a sudden wall of water, so we'll be okay!

Ugh. They need roughly 48 hours to evacuate, that time is ticking away...rapidly!

Anyone in Zone A at least definitely needs to ignore them and evacuate themselves...

The total water level rise in Irene was 8.8 feet including tides, and Sandy looks to go 10 to 13 feet.

[ObsessedMiami]

I think Bloomberg is channelling Mayor Vaughn in Jaws. remember how that turned out!

[KBBOCA]

An interesting Press release about a Carnival Cruise that was supposed to depart NYC on Monday, which was posted on another weather board:

CARNIVAL MIRACLE
OCTOBER 29, 2012
October 27, 2012

We know you must be looking forward to your cruise on Monday and are anxiously awaiting news regarding the impact of Hurricane Sandy.

We've been closely monitoring the storm and keeping in contact with port officials in New York. They have informed us that the port is expected to be closed on Monday. In an effort to continue with your cruise and keep safely away from the storm, we will now depart on Sunday, October 28.

Check-in for your cruise will take place from 2:00PM to 5:00PM, and sailing is set for 6:00 PM from Pier 90.

In addition, our supplies (food, beverages, etc…) were planned to be delivered on Monday, per our original schedule. Unfortunately, we were unable to make arrangements to bring them in early on Sunday. This means, in order for us to get the provisions needed by the first port, we will need to modify our itinerary. No worries, we definitely have enough supplies to last us till then.

Below is the revised itinerary:
DAY PORT ARRIVE DEPART
SUN New York, NY 6:00 PM
MON Fun Day @ Sea
TUE Fun Day @ Sea
WED Port Canaveral, FL 7:00 AM 6:00 PM
THU Nassau, The Bahamas 11:00 AM 8:00 PM
FRI Fun Day @ Sea
SAT Grand Turk 8:00 AM 5:00 PM
SUN Fun Day @ Sea
Mon Fun Day @ Sea
Tue New York, NY 8:00 AM

I don't think I'd want to be on that cruise!

[monicaei]

Ok, NHC punted, NYC is still planning on school Monday, no evacs... Maybe no ones here cuz Frank2 was right, and this isnt a big deal. High wind alert, and rainy / snowy isn't exactly the weather event of the decade.

They probably have the best advisors from all agencies, and no body really seems that worried, maybe this really was over hyped? Thoughts?

[brunota2003]

NHC didn't punt. They handed the ball off to the running back. One team, one fight.

[ozonepete]

So the cold front it is supposed to pick up, where is it now? Why isn't it as clearly visible as sandy?

The stationary front on the surface analysis is the front that will be "the one." (Neo, lol) You won't see it easily on the surface charts because the upper level trough is not shown on the surface chart. The upper level trough at 500mb will slide in tomorrow night and activate the stationary front, pushing it eastward where it will interact with Sandy. It is complex. Look at this forecast sequence to see what will happen at the surface:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

[Stephanie]

Red - Highest impact. Widespread to extensive loss of power expected along with major coastal flooding, and many trees and power lines down possibly blocking areas. Structural damage is also possible in some cases, especially in vulnerable areas (i.e. higher terrain, near the ocean/lakes in onshore flows and in areas prone to funneling). Possible sustained winds 35 to 55 mph with gusts 60 to 80 mph, except sustained over 60 mph with gusts up to 100 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Orange - Significant impact. Scattered to widespread loss of power, with numerous to many trees and power lines down. Slight structural damage possible in vulnerable areas (i.e. higher terrain, near the ocean/lakes in onshore flows and in areas prone to funneling). Possible sustained winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts 50 to 65 mph, except up to 80 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Yellow - Modest impact. Isolated to scattered loss of power. A few trees and power lines possibly down. Possible sustained winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 50 mph, except up to 60 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Blue - High impact due to heavy snow. This area overlaps with other colored zones, and indicates where heavy, wet snow could take down many trees and power lines and caused major problems in themselves.

Ugh I'm on the very edge of the yellow on your map Crazy. Hope nothing happens here.

I put yellow there because of the lake enhancement primarily, tried to cover a potential southerly flow off Lake Michigan. I'm solidly in the orange.

I'm solidly in the red.

[Terry]

That has to be a joke. Have you seen the wave heights off the coast from FL to NYC? No way they are taking that route.

An interesting Press release about a Carnival Cruise that was supposed to depart NYC on Monday, which was posted on another weather board:

CARNIVAL MIRACLE
OCTOBER 29, 2012
October 27, 2012

We know you must be looking forward to your cruise on Monday and are anxiously awaiting news regarding the impact of Hurricane Sandy.

We've been closely monitoring the storm and keeping in contact with port officials in New York. They have informed us that the port is expected to be closed on Monday. In an effort to continue with your cruise and keep safely away from the storm, we will now depart on Sunday, October 28.

Check-in for your cruise will take place from 2:00PM to 5:00PM, and sailing is set for 6:00 PM from Pier 90.

In addition, our supplies (food, beverages, etc…) were planned to be delivered on Monday, per our original schedule. Unfortunately, we were unable to make arrangements to bring them in early on Sunday. This means, in order for us to get the provisions needed by the first port, we will need to modify our itinerary. No worries, we definitely have enough supplies to last us till then.

Below is the revised itinerary:
DAY PORT ARRIVE DEPART
SUN New York, NY 6:00 PM
MON Fun Day @ Sea
TUE Fun Day @ Sea
WED Port Canaveral, FL 7:00 AM 6:00 PM
THU Nassau, The Bahamas 11:00 AM 8:00 PM
FRI Fun Day @ Sea
SAT Grand Turk 8:00 AM 5:00 PM
SUN Fun Day @ Sea
Mon Fun Day @ Sea
Tue New York, NY 8:00 AM

I don't think I'd want to be on that cruise!

[ozonepete]

An interesting Press release about a Carnival Cruise that was supposed to depart NYC on Monday, which was posted on another weather board:

CARNIVAL MIRACLE
OCTOBER 29, 2012
October 27, 2012

We know you must be looking forward to your cruise on Monday and are anxiously awaiting news regarding the impact of Hurricane Sandy.

We've been closely monitoring the storm and keeping in contact with port officials in New York. They have informed us that the port is expected to be closed on Monday. In an effort to continue with your cruise and keep safely away from the storm, we will now depart on Sunday, October 28.

Check-in for your cruise will take place from 2:00PM to 5:00PM, and sailing is set for 6:00 PM from Pier 90.

In addition, our supplies (food, beverages, etc…) were planned to be delivered on Monday, per our original schedule. Unfortunately, we were unable to make arrangements to bring them in early on Sunday. This means, in order for us to get the provisions needed by the first port, we will need to modify our itinerary. No worries, we definitely have enough supplies to last us till then.

Below is the revised itinerary:
DAY PORT ARRIVE DEPART
SUN New York, NY 6:00 PM
MON Fun Day @ Sea
TUE Fun Day @ Sea
WED Port Canaveral, FL 7:00 AM 6:00 PM
THU Nassau, The Bahamas 11:00 AM 8:00 PM
FRI Fun Day @ Sea
SAT Grand Turk 8:00 AM 5:00 PM
SUN Fun Day @ Sea
Mon Fun Day @ Sea
Tue New York, NY 8:00 AM

I don't think I'd want to be on that cruise!

LOL! You have to be kidding! Monday and Tuesday FUN DAY @ Sea?!! Yeah just bring a lot of dramamine...

[Portastorm]

Ok, NHC punted, NYC is still planning on school Monday, no evacs... Maybe no ones here cuz Frank2 was right, and this isnt a big deal. High wind alert, and rainy / snowy isn't exactly the weather event of the decade.

They probably have the best advisors from all agencies, and no body really seems that worried, maybe this really was over hyped? Thoughts?

My thoughts? You're kidding here, right?!

I will write something similar to what I wrote yesterday in a response to our friend Frank2 -- every nationally recognized forecaster and every online respected forecaster and just about every computer model I know of all still strongly suggest this will be a historic weather event. NHC did not punt, they made a decision based on terminology and not on storm threat.

[tomboudreau]

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: We are not ordering any evacuations as of this time, in any part of the city.

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: Although we’re expecting a large surge of water, it will be a slower pile-up and not a sudden wall of water.

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: Even though we are not ordering evacuations, conditions will be dangerous during the storm. The safest thing to do is stay inside.

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: We haven’t made a decision yet as to whether schools will be open on Monday. We will make that decision and announce it tomorrow.

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: Because of the hazards posed by high winds, all City parks will be closed after 5 PM tomorrow.


Wow...just unbelievable! Not evacuating, and commenting it is a "slow pile up" and not a tsunami type surge? 10 feet, is 10 feet...regardless of how fast it comes in!

I'm absolutely floored by these comments by him. Isn't there some 345,000 living in these evacuation zones or something like that? What a stupid and boneheaded comments by the mayor.

[monicaei]

Ok, NHC punted, NYC is still planning on school Monday, no evacs... Maybe no ones here cuz Frank2 was right, and this isnt a big deal. High wind alert, and rainy / snowy isn't exactly the weather event of the decade.

They probably have the best advisors from all agencies, and no body really seems that worried, maybe this really was over hyped? Thoughts?

My thoughts? You're kidding here, right?!

I will write something similar to what I wrote yesterday in a response to our friend Frank2 -- every nationally recognized forecaster and every online respected forecaster and just about every computer model I know of all still strongly suggest this will be a historic weather event. NHC did not punt, they made a decision based on terminology and not on storm threat.

Seems like the mayor of NyC would have the best and most accurate advice avaiable? When a storm threatens La, the Emergency Operations Center and GOSHEP open and all the experts flood in. If it was really dire, wouldn't they know?

[galaxy401]

If it ends up being a disaster in NYC, I really hope they don't blame the NHC or any weathering service for not warning them.

[CrazyC83]

The NHC is just doing their job as based in the technical manuals. The public is the problem - they aren't understanding that a Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) Warning and a High Wind Warning mean the exact same hazards!

[Hey Its Me]

I think it's a combination of being the weekend and that the primary threat here will impact areas which don't have as large of a representation on here than what we see along the Gulf Coast, for example.

Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX

Is it something in the water here? I'm Just off Beckett Rd.