ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[cwg25]

Hello all. Saw a post on here a few pages back mentioning the eastern NC area. I'm in New Bern. Been waiting for winds to pick up. Only light rain and drizzle for most of the day. Woke up to 5mph winds at the most. Now they're only 10-15mph at the most. Local forecast is calling for 4-5 inches of rain and winds 30-40mph. Wind predictions for ANY storm here have always been exagerated.

Have friends and family in CT who will get it much worse.

[brunota2003]

Buoy round up

Winds: 40.8 kts sustained
Waves: 23.9 ft (26.9 ft earlier)
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001

Winds: 29.1 kts sustained
Waves: 20.7 ft (24.3 ft earlier)
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002

Winds: 42.7 kts sustained
Waves: 18.7 ft (20.3 ft earlier)
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

Winds: 40.8 kts sustained
Waves: 16.1 ft (18.7 ft earlier)
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41036

Waves: 21.0 ft right off the Outer Banks
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44095

Waves: 18.0 ft (20.0 ft earlier)
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44014

[jaxfladude]

PRO-METS or others in the know, I heard/read that left turns(if hard and sudden enough) with regards to tropical systems/hybrids tend to disrupt the flow of energy to the center...right or wrong?

[KBBOCA]

Even in the midst of all this deep concern over Hurricane Sandy, I confess it did feel good to laugh just now.

A commenter at Wunderground gets an award for one of the wittiest remarks about this storm:

Didn't Mayor Bloomberg tell "Sandy" that he doesn't allow her to "supersize" it?

LOL. I wish Mayor Bloomberg COULD just ban Sandy from NYC!

[brunota2003]

Hello all. Saw a post on here a few pages back mentioning the eastern NC area. I'm in New Bern. Been waiting for winds to pick up. Only light rain and drizzle for most of the day. Woke up to 5mph winds at the most. Now they're only 10-15mph at the most. Local forecast is calling for 4-5 inches of rain and winds 30-40mph. Wind predictions for ANY storm here have always been exagerated.

Have friends and family in CT who will get it much worse.

Depends on where you live. Cherry Branch Ferry Terminal (not too far down the road from you) reported sustained winds of 48 mph, and New Bern's airport (EWN) is currently reporting sustained winds of 20 mph, with gusts to 31 mph...and there were gusts up to 40 mph earlier. Cherry Point made it up to 30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph as well...so they are there, just in the more open areas. Any buildings around you could be blocking the winds.

[crimi481]

Possibly an outer eye wall forming around the Low Center of Sandy.
More clouds filling in -slowly

I guess this hybrid will have a larger mid level center - with a Tropical Low center in middle - under it- at surface?
If both their engines stay in sync all way to landfall - could the winds end up higher than predicted as they are mixing together at 2 levels of atmosphere? Not many of these type storms to look back on for data.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

Not a Pro - un official content

[brunota2003]

Basically, this is similar to the Perfect Storm, just forming in reverse? Instead of a huge ULL drilling down and forming a hurricane at the center, a hurricane is forming a huge low pressure system.

[brunota2003]

Forecast storm surge in the Battery in Lower Manhattan is 5.5' on Monday night, a little over a foot higher than during Irene. By comparison, the Battery saw an 8' storm surge in Dec. 1992 and 8.36' during Hurricane Donna. During the 1992 surge, mass transit was flooded and was shut down for 10 days.

Main focus is on subway flooding with these predicted surge values - and some low lying areas will see some water. I think that is the basis for the non-evacuation at this time. Folks questioned New Orleans not evacuating for Isaac too and that, to be honest, was a much riskier propositon in terms of potential to loss of life from a below sea level city with levees vs. below infracstructure flooding as the primary threat in NYC. The cost of the subway system flooding would be billions, but there should be limited threat to safety with the current forecast surge levels.

<snip>

One of the mets earlier, was saying he thinks the 5.5' is too low. He thinks it could be closer to 10 or 12 ft...if I remember correctly.

[KBBOCA]

One last comment on Bloomberg from me, and then I think I'm done for the night (in fact it's already well into the early a.m. here in my timezone)

A commenter on Wunderground who claims to have worked closely with NYC government officials suggests that Bloomberg is saying one thing and doing another, that his words today are meant to avoid mass panic and a Rita-like evacuation that actually complicates matters and endangers people. But that behind the scenes, Bloomberg is working with all the agencies to put the pieces in motion to evacuate areas that need evacuating etc. etc.

Not sure I believe it. Nor does it mean I support that type of decision. But it is actually a somewhat plausible explanation for what seemed to be a very casual attitude to the danger on Bloomberg's part.

[jaxfladude]

Per TWC- 7.7 earthquake off the coast of British Columbia...tsunami warning issued.....off topic I know....

[Paschal]

Hello;

I am new here, as a poster; but I've been a lurker for over 5 years. My husband and I are in the DC area, and we have been very worried about this storm. Spent today getting supplies, getting the car gassed and garaged, &c.

I've always appreciated the news and opinions that we have been getting from Storm2K, during various threats to our area; and during this storm, it's all been exceptionally helpful. I finally signed up tonight so that I could post, because I wanted to let all of you know that even though many people may not post, they ARE watching! and they DO appreciate all of the work that all of you - professionals and amateurs alike - are doing to keep the public informed.

Thank you so much; and everyone on the East Coast: Batten Down and Stay Safe!

[KBBOCA]

Sandy by the numbers - sent to me by email from a friend in FL. Don't know the source, but the info matches what I've been reading and I think it's accurate.


50,000: number of people in Delaware ordered to evacuate.

9: number of U.S. governors who have declared states of emergency.

44: number of Sandy-related deaths tallied so far in Haiti.

200,000: number of homeless in Haiti due to the passage of Sandy.

960 mb: Sandy's current barometric pressure.

450: radius in nautical miles of Sandy's tropical storm-force winds. (For visualization purposes: if the storm were perfectly symmetrical and its center made landfall in Cape May, NJ, winds of tropical storm strength would be felt from Charleston, SC, northward to Kennebunkport, ME.)

7 - 10: the number of days many people in parts of the Northeast may be without power.

65,000,000: approximate number of people who are likely to be directly affected by Sandy (roughly 20% of the U.S. population).

[jinftl]

When you factor in the higher than normal high tide, the total surge height could be 10.5' according to Dr. Masters. By comparison, Irene's total surge height with tidal height included was 9.5'.

I think one thing to keep in mind is that this really doesn't appear to be a scenario where forecasters (those who run the extremely high resolution and increasingly accurate surge models) are saying NYC is going to have a 20' surge and the Mayor and officials are ignoring that. Mayor Bloomberg is not a pro met and he was wrong to say the remark about this not being a hurricane so the threat was less. But based on the models, the threat from a 10.5' surge is very well detailed and known. It will be very damaging but there is no forecaster saying that with those surge levels, thousands of lives in NYC are at risk (not even Cantore).

By comparison, if people want to be appalled, consider those times where forecasters were calling for catastrophic surge and publicizing item well in advance and both officials and residents did not take those forecasts seriously enough because 'the storm was only a Cat 2' for example (Galveston in Ike) or where a mayor called for the evacuation 48 hours too late to save thousands of lives even after the NHC called him directly and pleaded with him to order an evacuation (Nagin in Katrina).

Forecast storm surge in the Battery in Lower Manhattan is 5.5' on Monday night, a little over a foot higher than during Irene. By comparison, the Battery saw an 8' storm surge in Dec. 1992 and 8.36' during Hurricane Donna. During the 1992 surge, mass transit was flooded and was shut down for 10 days.

Main focus is on subway flooding with these predicted surge values - and some low lying areas will see some water. I think that is the basis for the non-evacuation at this time. Folks questioned New Orleans not evacuating for Isaac too and that, to be honest, was a much riskier propositon in terms of potential to loss of life from a below sea level city with levees vs. below infracstructure flooding as the primary threat in NYC. The cost of the subway system flooding would be billions, but there should be limited threat to safety with the current forecast surge levels.

<snip>

One of the mets earlier, was saying he thinks the 5.5' is too low. He thinks it could be closer to 10 or 12 ft...if I remember correctly.

[sandyb]

Hello all. Saw a post on here a few pages back mentioning the eastern NC area. I'm in New Bern. Been waiting for winds to pick up. Only light rain and drizzle for most of the day. Woke up to 5mph winds at the most. Now they're only 10-15mph at the most. Local forecast is calling for 4-5 inches of rain and winds 30-40mph. Wind predictions for ANY storm here have always been exagerated.

Have friends and family in CT who will get it much worse.

I live in Newport we have had high winds Cherry Pt. had 48 mph earlier I live about 3 miles south of there

[jinftl]

NHC 11pm Advisory lists surge forecasts - if the peak is at high tide:

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

[cheezyWXguy]

When you factor in the higher than normal high tide, the total surge height could be 10.5' according to Dr. Masters. By comparison, Irene's total surge height with tidal height included was 9.5'.

I think one thing to keep in mind is that this really doesn't appear to be a scenario where forecasters (those who run the extremely high resolution and increasingly accurate surge models) are saying NYC is going to have a 20' surge and the Mayor and officials are ignoring that. Mayor Bloomberg is not a pro met and he was wrong to say the remark about this not being a hurricane so the threat was less. But based on the models, the threat from a 10.5' surge is very well detailed and known. It will be very damaging but there is no forecaster saying that with those surge levels, thousands of lives in NYC are at risk (not even Cantore).

By comparison, if people want to be appalled, consider those times where forecasters were calling for catastrophic surge and publicizing item well in advance and both officials and residents did not take those forecasts seriously enough because 'the storm was only a Cat 2' for example (Galveston in Ike) or where a mayor called for the evacuation 48 hours too late to save thousands of lives even after the NHC called him directly and pleaded with him to order an evacuation (Nagin in Katrina).

Forecast storm surge in the Battery in Lower Manhattan is 5.5' on Monday night, a little over a foot higher than during Irene. By comparison, the Battery saw an 8' storm surge in Dec. 1992 and 8.36' during Hurricane Donna. During the 1992 surge, mass transit was flooded and was shut down for 10 days.

Main focus is on subway flooding with these predicted surge values - and some low lying areas will see some water. I think that is the basis for the non-evacuation at this time. Folks questioned New Orleans not evacuating for Isaac too and that, to be honest, was a much riskier propositon in terms of potential to loss of life from a below sea level city with levees vs. below infracstructure flooding as the primary threat in NYC. The cost of the subway system flooding would be billions, but there should be limited threat to safety with the current forecast surge levels.

<snip>

One of the mets earlier, was saying he thinks the 5.5' is too low. He thinks it could be closer to 10 or 12 ft...if I remember correctly.

Unless I missed it, I dont remember really getting an explanation for this, but, considering the fact that Sandy is so much larger, stronger, and hitting at a more critical angle than Irene, I guess I don't understand how the surge is only going to be 1 foot higher than Irene. I understand that it will likely be more spread out over a larger area, but wouldnt such an angle cause it to collect in the New Jersey, NYC, Long Island area? This post isnt designed to hype or anything like that, I'm just trying to put all the pieces together and find out as much as I can so whatever feedback I can get would be well appreciated.

[jinftl]

As of 11pm advisory, NHC puts probability of surge over 9' hitting NYC between 5-10%in some areas and 10-20% in others. Surge during Irene reached 9.5' at the Battery and if it had been 8-12 inches higher, the subway system would have flooded. That is the fear with Sandy.

[SevenTreesFarm]

Per TWC- 7.7 earthquake off the coast of British Columbia...tsunami warning issued.....off topic I know....

Too funny! I'm glued to Sandy coverage when I get the alert. Now I got trouble on both coasts to watch.

[monsoon]

Won't there be wave action on top of the combined tide + storm surge?

[MHurricanes]

From Dr. Ryan Maue, who is head of Meteorological Applications Research
at Weatherbell.com

‏@RyanMaue 8m GFS 00z Devastating track for #Sandy from hours 48-54 into S. New Jersey. Extreme winds on north side of storm: pic.twitter.com/GKrpuBOW

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/262 ... 24/photo/1